Data Agrees With Real Life: Future Flights Will Be Even Longer and More Crowded
Anecdotally -- as in our own in-real-life experience -- we know how terrible the air flying experience is these days, especially Stateside, and how it has deteriorated over the years. Now new data from FAA released as part of its Annual Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2033 confirms it with data, both historical and future.
From the FAA forecast, both average trip length and average seats per aircraft mile -- measure of how many seats fit into an aircraft -- have been increasing steadily since 2000 for U.S. commercial air carriers. Both are forecast to continue going in an upwards trajectory for years to come.
In 2012 the average U.S. domestic passenger trip length increased by 3.5 miles to 883.6 miles in total, after increasing by 5.1 miles in 2011. Passenger trip length is forecast to increase by 7.2 miles in 2013 as carriers continue to reduce capacity and move away from smaller markets. After 2013, trip length is projected to remain stable for a number of years before steadily increasing from 2018 onwards, reaching 939.8 miles by 2033.
Reflects longer trips flown by the mainline and regional carrier group. Mainline carrier trip length increases as thinner, relatively shorter haul markets are relinquished to regional partners and replaced with longer domestic trips. Regional carrier trip length increases as flying in shorter haul markets is abandoned and/or reduced as more of the larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets continue to penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously served with mainline equipment.
In other words, consolidation of mainstream airlines in U.S. married with their pullback from unprofitable routes and reliance on more and more on regional carriers to pick up the slack has led to where we are now, and will continue in the foreseeable future.
Add to that, the average load factors on airlines -- measure of how full an aircraft flight is these days -- reached a record-breaking 82.6 points, up 0.7 points from 2011 (this is blended domestic plus international data). The load factors are so high, it doesn't have much more room to grow without bigger planes, and is projected to grow moderately during the early years of the forecast period then tapering during the mid to latter years to 83.9 percent in 2033.
For domestic airlines, the load factor increased 0.7 points during FY 2012 to an all-time high of 83.2 percent: mainline carrier group posted a load factor of 84.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from 2011, while regional carriers increased by 1.4 points to 77.6 percent.
In 2013, the domestic load factor is forecast to increase 0.6 points to 83.2 percent as both mainline and regional carriers increase by 0.6 percentage points. From there, the commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to 85.2 percent by 2033.
The charts below from the FAA forecast present detailed data on average trip length, average seats per mile, average load factors, broken down by domestic and international flights, and by mainline and regional carriers.
What kind of innovation could break this cycle of fuller planes and longer flights? Could technology and design changes play a big role any time soon in this? Looks unlikely because of capital required and the lack of political will to make radical changes.
CHART 1: TRIP LENGTH AND AVERAGE SEAT MILES, MIX OF MAINLINE & REGIONAL CARRIERS:
CHART 2: MAINLINE CARRIERS AND INCREASE IN TRIP LENGTHS, MOSTLY COAST TO COAST
CHART 3: REGIONAL CARRIES AND TRIP LENGTHS + SEATS PER MILE
CHART 4: LOAD FACTORS FOR DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS
Photo: Nick Sherman/Flickr.com
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11 年There are better ways to fly. Check out smaller carriers operating out of regional airports or those operating out of private terminals at major airports. Carriers like Lakeshore Express, Jetstream, and Ultimate Jets allow you to avoid the chaos and confusion associated with commercial airfare without paying higher prices.
Redefining the industry landscape at the fastest growing Enterprise Mobility Management provider on the market today - SOTI
11 年High speed rail is great, but I am not inclined to believe that it will have such a significant impact on how comfortable short air trips are going to be. The problem is systemic in this industry and optimization of an adjacent industry (high speed rail) will inadvertently have impact on air travel, but the two are not directly correlated. Airlines are fighting for profitability and the fight is not easy with high requirements for capital, a massive security-laiden cost structure, enourmous amount of regulation and soaring fuel prices. If we all want to fly more comfortably and make air travel more afforable (air travel is by far the safest way to travel), the industry needs relief on regulatory compliance and less security to fight the privacy invasion stigma. Nationalizing key players might not be a bad idea after all.
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11 年Future fights will be uncontrollable!
What could we build next?
11 年Love the data! For some tips to make your next trip less aggravating, try this: https://wp.me/p2b9ZX-av
SAP FICO HANA CPA PMP PhD in business, Ind Eng 2 licences.US Citizen. Creator of the ERP and Business DB technology
11 年If Obama and the IT companies and IT consultants do not care about immigration laws, might it impact the IT businesses? If a US citizen is accused of not being a US citizen, he or she can go directly of DHS, there are several data bases to connect at the local place you born, and prove that you are a citizen. It takes few hours to have these processes done. We cannot understand why Obama is hiding all this information and make it public if he is a citizen or not, the review is also done to your parents in the same visit to DHS to prove you an American. Similar situations are happening in IT businesses now-a-days. For example, Mexican and other consultants coming with a nonimmigrant visa, crossing to USA and start working for an American company without a valid working visa. In some cases, they did not apply for even a NAFTA visa to avoid the background check by DHS. Indian IT consultants commonly are not reporting the current US address in which they are located during their stay in USA, the immigration law request a Green Card Holder to notify their current US address all the time. Other manner of breaking immigration laws is working remotely for another country, and after only saying visits to that country like a tourist, because immigration laws do not allow Green Card Holder to use USA to jump looking a job or working in another country. Other rules are related to compensations of the consultants, Indian IT consultants they are charging same amount of money like in India breaking immigration laws for unfair compensations in the States. The fact it is that there are some IT companies with huge problems for avoiding these regulations, most of them Indian origin companies located in the States. Most of these companies they are doing in purpose these illegalities, they do not care about them, and they are expecting US attorneys to resolve all the legal situations. Foreign Monopolies of IT companies in the States, it seems that they can access to criminal records, police information, credit scores and others, and they can destroy the credit or other of an American consultant, just to have their own shortlisted consultants in important finance and accounting positions. There is a lot to investigate about all the illegalities in the immigration laws for IT companies and IT consultants.