20 ideas that will transform the 20s

Introduction: The 2020s will be a period of kairos, a decade of disruption 

Every hundred fifty to two hundred years, as the forces of progress converge and collide, something remarkable happens and the world that emerges is radically transformed. The last time it happened was the Industrial Revolution, before then the Renaissance and the Age of Discovery, etc. The Ancient Greeks named these periods: Kairos — times of dramatic peril where leaders who are tuned to change seize opportunity.

The 2020s will be a time of Kairos, a decade of disruption. To assist you with preparing for a decade of success, TomorrowToday’s Chief eXploration Officer Dean van Leeuwen has explored and discovered some of the ambitious, exciting, disruptive, terrifying and fascinating ideas that will shape the next decade. 

Below in detail are the first ten ideas that will transform the 2020s. Let me know what you think and especially if I’ve missed any out.

Idea 1. Capitalism, as a Force for Good, will Save the World:

The Industrial Revolution will be remembered for a period when economies grew at the earth’s expense. Capitalism meant extreme extraction, polluting production and asset accumulation without consideration. No doubt, capitalism has pulled billions of people out of poverty and created great wealth — most people today are better off than at any time in human history. 

But these gains have come with huge costs: The loss of entire ecosystems, climate change and great inequalities, that’s changing. Here are three reasons why shareholder capitalism will be replaced by stakeholder capitalism, and the 2020s will see this trend going mainstream:

· Firstly, consumers are demanding it. Studies show that 77% of people believe it is business’s responsibility to find solutions for the problems capitalism created. The Extinction Rebellion is just one example. As Gen X, Y and Z become the dominant business decision makers and consumers, the way business is conducted will change.

· Secondly, a seismic legal and institutional shift is shattering capitalism as we know it. The Business Roundtable — an association of 181 CEOs with more than 15 million employees and more than $7 trillion in annual revenues has redefined the Purpose of a Corporation to “promote an economy that serves all, not just shareholders. We are also seeing the emergence of legal frameworks supporting this shift. The Benefit and B-Type Corporations — businesses formally and legally committed to the benefit of society and shareholders — are manifestations of stakeholder capitalism, a model that better serves the planet, people and profit in a sustainable way. By 2030 if you are not a benefit corporation, people — customers and employees — are going to ask why not!

· Thirdly, we are learning how to be more sustainable and still grow economies. “We’re not using up the earth as much anymore,” says Andrew McAfee, principle research scientist at MIT Sloan School of Management; “actually, we’re using it less, even as our growth continues.” Take Rens, a sneaker brand making shoes from waste coffee. Every pair is made from 300 grams of used coffee grounds. That’s 21 cups of recycled coffee producing shoes that are waterproof, vegan friendly and also use 6-bottles of recycled plastic in the production. Large corporates are also getting in on the act. Hugo Boss has a range of shoes and clothing made from Pinatex, a material derived from pineapple plant fibre.

Competition locks companies into relearning. We are seeing companies fighting to use fewer resources and less energy, because not only is it good for the planet, but it makes good business sense too.

We cannot, however, afford to be complacent. The Extinction Rebellion must pressure for continued change and consumers must support a better future by purchasing products from Benefit corporations. Governments must regulate for greener solutions even implementing societal dividends where businesses pay citizens based on the quantity of pollutants and GHG the firms emit. “Properly configured and constrained, capitalism will not eat up the planet, it will actually let us take better care of it” says McAfee.

In the 2020’s successful businesses will emerge as a force for good.

Idea 2. CSR moves to the centre

Developing the previous idea further, we will see Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) evolving from a periphery business activity and re-emerging at its core. This is being driven by a shift towards impact investments. Since 2016 impact investments have grown 34 percent worldwide and now total over $30 trillion.

The old sustainability mindset was about efficiencies and cutbacks, but today business leaders are also exploring how they can have a positive impact. For example, we worked with a leading global food company to develop strategic roadmaps that secure supply and deliver enhanced health and environmental benefits.

By asking the questions: What are the big problems our business can solve, and, how can we have a greater impact through the SDGs, we turned the strategy development exercise into one full of energy and enthusiasm. We spread our net wide exploring not only new ways food could be sourced (from wild, farmed and even in the lab), but also different types of species. In doings so we developed impact strategies for planet, people and profits:

· Consumers are getting access to new innovative products which use different species with enhanced health benefits.

· Species diversification places less demand on traditional and vulnerable food sources allowing ecosystems to recover.

· The strategy also involved setting up partnerships and supporting farmers who embrace the circular economy — where food production mimics natural systems of regeneration so that waste does not exist. Plans are in place to help farmers scale their circular models delivering even greater impact to people and planet.

· Our client also benefits financially. By diversifying the species sourced, they are becoming less dependent on a few big suppliers, from costly supply price hikes and ensuring access to a sustainable future supply chain.

· Lastly, our client benefits from their positive impact story which attracts more loyal clients, consumers and talented employees

CSR came about in the 1970s as a way for companies to demonstrate good corporate citizenship, but it has often only been used for green washing. The successful companies of the 2020’s will change this, and CSR will become core to doing business and no longer be a side event.

Idea 3. Global Goals release $12 trillion a year in new economic growth

In 2015, 193 countries agreed to the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future. At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are an urgent call for action by business and public sector.

As we enter the 2020’s achieving the SDGs is not just a moral imperative, but an economic one too. A landmark report launched the Business & Sustainable Development Commission — who’s members comprise of the chief executives form multinational firms such as Edelman, Pearson, Investec, Merck, Safaricom, Abraaj, Alibaba and Aviva, alongside academics, environmentalists, trade union leaders and philanthropists — reveals that pursuing sustainable and inclusive business models could unlock economic opportunities worth at least US$12 trillion a year by 2030 and generate up to 380 million jobs.

Leaders are looking towards how their core business can be mobilised to deliver impact against the 17 SDG’s. In doing so they will gain access to a growing economic windfall. When the world’s biggest problems also represent the greatest business opportunities, the only question that remains is why wouldn’t you focus on them?

Idea 4. Genomics revolutionise medicine

The next decade in medicine and health advancements is going to be positively wild! The improvements in gene therapy over the last couple of years will fundamentally transform this decade. “Given the current rate of trials and treatments awaiting approval, individual gene therapy could cure, about 5–20 new rare diseases per year” says Nicole Paulk, professor of biochemistry at the University of California. “In a decade, it’s not inconceivable that we’ll beat back 200 diseases.” The 2020s are poised to witness the largest transformation in medicine since antibiotics and vaccines positively changing the lives of millions of people.

In addition, advances in CRISPR Cas9 technology will develop more nutritious crops and eradicate infectious disease. But there are also potential undesirable consequences. The engineering of new human traits or creating so-called designer babies could lead to societal backlash putting research on hold or pushing back development for years. For this profoundly powerful technology to be embraced by the public, it must be applied responsibly.

Idea 5. Bio-fabricated meat will change everything

Massive queues of people buying Burger King’s Impossible Whopper — the 100% whopper 0% beef burger — captured visually the rising marvel of plant-based “meats”. Most surprisingly though is that this trend, which has risen just in the last few years, is not driven primarily by health or even the ethics of eating animals. It’s primarily driven by people wanting to live more sustainably.

Restaurants sales of plant-based proteins rose last year by more than 20 percent, while regular meat’s sales grew by only 2 percent. The predictions are for in America alone plant-based meat market will grow by a factor of 20 this decade, reaching $85 billion in annual sales by 2030.

Consumers are beginning to appreciate the impact agriculture and meat production is having on our planet. This is further fuelling investments in food innovation — Impossible Foods, a California-based company and creator of the Impossible Whopper is now valued at about $2bn giving it unicorn status as demand for meat substitutes soars.

According to John Mackey, cofounder and CEO of Whole Foods, “One innovation that’s coming as a result is cell-based meat. Known also as bio-fabricated meat, it is easiest understood as the production of meat through the growth of stem cells in large vats (using a process similar to making beer) but without having to slaughter animals, destroy ecosystems or consume vast amounts of water.

In the long term, says Mackay, “it’s going to be bigger than plant-based meats, which don’t taste like meat without being extremely processed. But cell-based meat — that is, meat grown from animal cells — could change the entire planet.”

Mackay believes this trend will break in the 2020s. “Imagine if it’s not only more ethical, or environmentally less harmful, but even cheaper. A different way of procuring animal foods than what we’ve done for all of humanity — that would change everything.”

The other contributing factor to bio-fabricated meat innovations is the question, how will we feed the 8.5 billion people living on earth by 2030 without destroying the planet?

Bio-fabricated and plant protein meat could well be the answer and the 2020’s will be the decade on which the blocks for a future of very different food production are built.

Idea 6. Soft skills will become more important than degrees

It will be wrong for people to think they can future-proof themselves with a degree. Our education system has been built around replicating mass conformity and compliance. This made sense because the industrial system needed lots of people to do the same things in the same way. But, as innovations in AI and automation march relentlessly forward this replication in learning, has made it easier for machines to copy what people do. Studies suggest that over the next decade as much as 45% of jobs are in danger of automation. Hoping to keep a job because of your degree and smile is going to lead to disappointment.

Robots, whether mechanical of software, will be able to do many aspects of your job quicker, faster and cheaper. To secure their position in the workforce of the future humans will need to hone many of the skills not taught in a degree. Skills that robots are not good at doing.

Fortunately, most jobs have skills requiring more than a simple conformity of input A to output B procedures. Many of these skills are the softer skills. Things like empathy and communication; critical thinking; creativity, strategy, imagination and vision, questioning, designing and dreaming. These soft skills are going to be hard currency in the job market of the future.

In summary, the best thing you can do right now is work on your soft skills. Because in the 2020s people with great soft skills will be high in demand.

Idea 7. 4-day working weeks will make companies more productive

“Work a short time, rest well and learn a lot,” said president and CEO Takuya Hirano in a statement to Microsoft Japan’s website. In August last year Microsoft Japan gave its entire 2,300-person workforce five Fridays off in a row without decreasing pay. The results of this 4-day working week were remarkable. The shortened weeks led to more efficient meetings, happier workers and boosted productivity by a staggering 40%. The shorter working week also resulted in cost savings in energy, paper and travel.

Benefits of a 4-day working week for society and the planet could also be huge. It would lessen the environmental impact by taking cars off the road during rush hour. Flexible 4-day schemes would close the gender gap by helping women stay on track to move into leadership positions, rather than dropping out of the workforce after having children. It would also decrease stress and improve employees’ mental health.

This is not the first-time long weekends have been experimented with in the corporate world. In 2018, New Zealand trust management company Perpetual Guardian trialled a four-day work week. CEO Andrew Barnes found employee engagement also improved by 40% and staff stress levels decreased by 7%. Barnes has now made it his quest to get other executives around the world to reimagine the value they would get. “If I went to your company and said, ‘By restructuring, I can deliver you a 40% improvement in productivity,’ most CEOs would say yes immediately,” Barnes says, but, “If I walk in and say, ‘I want you to let your employees work less time,’…most people say, ‘Are you kidding?’”

The secret is helping employees to unlearn how they’re spending time in the office. The studies show people will happily give up small talk and time spent on social media when the reward is an extra day off.

Another experiment published by the Harvard Business Review shows shorter work days, a decrease from the average 8-hour work day to a 6-hour work day, increased productivity. This is supported by research showing that more than half of full-time workers believe they can do their job in five hours a day.

“We have picked an arbitrary five days a week, Barnes says, “but the world’s changed.” With advances in AI, taking on much of the grunt work, and a growing realisation that people do not need to work the same way as we have in the past, maybe during the 2020s more companies will realise the opportunity and benefits of moving to four-day working weeks

Idea 8. UBI will offer society a stable lifeline

Universal basic income or UBI offers to make the transition into the fourth industrial revolution less painful for many. Its premise is radical though straightforward: Governments would send all tax-paying citizens regular monthly cheques to cover well anything really; from basic food stuffs to that new algorithm coding course or even a family holiday. In the long run, advocates claim, societies that adopt universal basic income should become healthier, happier, and more prosperous.

Anthony Painter, a director at RSA — a think tank committed to finding practical solutions to social challenges — argues: “The simple fact is that too many households are highly vulnerable to a shock in a decade of disruption, with storm clouds on the horizon if automation, Brexit and an ageing population are mismanaged.”

The threat is real. By 2030 one in five existing jobs in the UK will be “displaced” by globalisation and automation. The country will not be affected equally either, with northern cities being much worse hit than southern ones.

Critics wonder how governments will pay for these schemes. Ultimately, they will not have a choice. Artificial intelligence will replace so many jobs and create so much excess wealth, that governments will face mass unrest. UBI may be the only option for staying in power.

UBI will be in the interest of business too. Have you ever met a robot that goes shopping on the High Street? Whilst robots and AI may do jobs better faster and cheaper, they do not buy products. If we have mass unemployment and stagnating wages, industrialists will find their obsession with cost cutting automation means they have killed the goose that laid the golden egg.

Without a real change in our thinking, we will be unable to help working people meet the challenges ahead. Experts estimate UBI schemes as soon as 2026, with pilots are already underfoot in Finland, Scotland, Switzerland and the United States.

Inequality is one of the greatest threats facing society in the 2020’s. Emerging technologies are likely to make the gaps between the 1% and the 99% much more pronounced. Today’s inequality is fast approaching levels last seen during the French Revolution. Do not imagine heads won’t roll if radical solutions like UBI do not become part of society’s fabric

Idea 9. The future of the workforce is female

Since the First Industrial Revolution, men have dominated work because brute strength was largely needed to operate machines. This gave men a greater say over how things were orchestrated and whom the rules of work favoured, naturally this was men. But the Fourth Industrial Revolution, is characterised by brains replacing brawn and as a result the workplace of the future will be female.

According to the Wall Street Journal, “Women held more U.S. jobs — 50.4% — than men in December 2019.” This is only the second time more women have been employed than men. The last time was 2010, following a recession haemorrhaging of male-dominated construction jobs. Ten years later, this trend appears more permanent. Industries dominated by women are growing and expected to maintain that growth in the years ahead. Furthermore, from AI to machine learning, algorithm to automation, the exponential advancements in technology is levelling the playing fields.

This trend will result in significant institutional and structural changes. To remain competitive and attract the best talent, employers will need to improve their paid family leave and flexible work benefits. Like in the earlier revolutions, as more women gain a stronger foothold the will exhort greater influence. Women will set the agenda and footprint for the future of work.

As the 2020’s develop it is going to be interesting to witness how a growing participation of female labour pushes companies to revaluate and adjust what they offer their workforce.

Idea 10. It will be the beginning of the end for the combustible engine

At the end of 2019 BMW confirmed they will discontinue their electric i3 and i8 models. Petrolheads will celebrate this as a sign that electric cars are not the future. But, when asked why, BMW’s Chief Marketing Officer, Pieter Nota explained that the i3 is actually doing extremely well. So well in fact BMW has decided that electric cars must go mainstream. Rather than having electric side models, like the i-series, all of BMW’s cars will be available with an electric engine option.

BMW’s shift is already prevalent in their new Mini Electric and their strategy is being matched by other car-markers — Ford announced the launch of the E-Mustang, an all-electric game changer for the Detroit motor giant. All of this is a remarkable trend for a technology which along with the fossil fuels that propels it, has been central to the entirety of our economic growth over the last 150 years.

In ten year’s time we may well look back in amazement at how quickly the combustion engine disappeared from our roads and many will wonder why so few saw it coming at the speed with which it did. In the 2020’s the future of the engine will be rooted in electricity.

It is going to a decade of disruption, there is no doubt about that. Hope you have enjoyed the first ten ideas transforming the 2020s. 

Here is the rest of the list. I will be writing this up soon, so here’s your chance what have I left out? 

Idea 11. Women will alter the world of work

Idea 12. Physical will be big

Idea 13. Big dreams big quests

Idea 14. AI Trust will = AI success

Idea 15. End of plastic

Idea 16. Crypto currencies will rule

Idea 17. Humans will be based on Mars and the moon

Idea 18. We will see the world’s first trillionaire

Idea 19. A star in a bottle will be born

Idea 20. Nature will bite back

Idea 21. Your idea(s)