#20: ?????? ????????????-?????????? ?????????? ???? ????....and Future of Work

?????? ????????????-?????????? ?????????? ???? ????: ?? ???????? ?????? ??????????????

Just like many others I have been optimistic about technology innovation, AI included.That's a case I strongly made in an earlier newsletter edition about the Fear of AI. I consider many of the fears unwarranted.

However, some minds has been changed now. Mine not so much. In this thought provoking article Aki Ito looks at how leading economist Daron Acemoglu challenges the default optimism around AI, suggesting that unchecked technological advancement can be a detriment.

Drawing from his study on governance, democracy, and economic growth, Acemoglu highlights the potential for AI to replace, rather than complement, human tasks.With tech moguls like Elon Musk echoing concerns, Acemoglu advocates for a societal shift: moving from blind techno-optimism to a balanced approach. Solutions? Tax software more, advocate for workers, and ensure AI complements human capabilities. His call:

let's champion tech that fosters shared prosperity, not just elite gain.

Aki and Daron's arguments notwithstanding I still retain my optimism about the power of AI do good and continue to recognise it as a Double-Edged Sword just like almost all other technology innovations. The necessary checks and balances will have to be devised.A fascinating read for sure.

???????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ?? ?????????? - ?? ?????????? ???? ?? ???????????

I have often called AI in general and Generative AI in particular a double-edged sword in the raticle above. So the billion dollar question - ?????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ???? ?????????? ?? ??????????? (atleast metaphorically).

A recent study by BCG Henderson Institute (Thanks Martin Reeves ) shows that Generative AI significantly boosts or hurts performance based on the type of task.

???? ?????? ????????????????????, ???????????????????????? ?????????? ??????-4 ?????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????????????? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????? (?????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ?????? ???????? ?????????????? ?????????? ??????-4) ???? 40%. ?????? ?????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ??????????????, ?????????? ??????-4 ???????????????? ???? ?????????????????????? ???????? ?????? 23% ?????????? ???????? ???????? ???? ?????? ?????????????? ??????????.

"???? ???????????????? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? "?????? ?????? ??????????????" ?????? ?????? ????r ???????? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???????? ???? ???????????????????? ?????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ??????, ?? ??????????.

Even more important, because as the study shows,

???????? ?????????????? ???? ???????????????? ?????????????? ??????????????, ?? ???????? ?????????????? ?????? ????????’?? ?????????????? ????????????????????, ???????? ???????????????????????? ???????? ??????-4'?? ???????????????????? ???????????? ???? ???????? ??????????. ?????????? ?????????????????????? ?????? 23% ?????????? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ????????’?? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???? ??????.

?? ?????????? & ?????? ???????????? ???? ????????

Generative AI, or GenAI, isn't just a continuation of existing technology; it's a transformative leap, reshaping how we interact with technology and redefine our work. A few highlights:

1?? We're moving beyond the age of AI-enhancing processes. Now, GenAI is redefining them. It offers organizations a chance to reimagine their core functions.

2?? "No-collar jobs" are on the horizon, where AI & humans co-create roles that don't fit traditional work categories.

3?? Rather than replacing jobs, GenAI can make them more effective and fulfilling, enhancing rather than eliminating.

4?? Reskilling is essential. The need for both AI development and usage skills cannot be overstated.

5?? Paul Daugherty , CTO at Accenture , in this interview with Phil Fersht ( HFS Research ) predicts that in the coming years, there'll be a greater integration of GenAI into enterprise software, emphasizing intelligence as core to enterprise architecture.

6?? Responsible AI has become a market-driven requirement, not just a tech initiative.We're at a pivotal moment in tech. The early adopters in this GenAI wave may set the pace for the rest. Are you ready to be part of this transformation?

???? ???????? ?????? ???? ???????? ???????? ????? Jobs of Tomorrow in the Age of AI

Economic Evolution: Creative Destruction

"Creative destruction", a term coined by Joseph Schumpeter in 1942, describes the inevitable cycle where innovation replaces old ways. Although this can mean the obsolescence of certain jobs, it also heralds the birth of new ones.

With the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), especially in the realm of Large Language Models (LLMs), the World Economic Forum's white paper delineates three job categories expected to flourish: Trainers, Explainers, and Sustainers.

1. Trainers: The AI Builders

- These are the tech geniuses who design and develop AI. This includes scientists, engineers, and even chip designers as demand grows for custom microchips.

- Beyond programming, roles here could also encompass systems administrators for server infrastructure and power systems engineering to ensure energy efficiency.

2. Explainers: The AI Ambassadors

- If trainers are the backstage crew, explainers are the front-of-house team. They'll be creating user-friendly interfaces for LLMs.

- Think of them as the "user experience designers" for AI. Their role could span from making AI systems understand voice commands to crafting tailored AI assistants.

3. Sustainers: The AI Custodians

- Sustainers ensure AI systems are utilized optimally. This category covers:

- Content creators who optimize prompts for desired AI content.

- Data curators responsible for quality and integrity checks of training data.

- Ethics and governance specialists ensuring non-biased, ethical AI behavior and possibly leading to a new realm of AI law and regulation.

Further, the white paper predicts a surge of 39% in AI and machine learning specialist roles over the next five years. Other fields, like teaching (10% predicted growth) and professions demanding personal interaction, are also expected to thrive. Interestingly, roles non-reliant on language tasks, including manual work, are less likely to be disrupted.

In conclusion, while AI will transform the job market by replacing some roles, it will also amplify others and generate entirely new careers. As AI's potential unfolds, businesses and governments must prepare their workforce for this shift, ensuring all benefit from AI's promise.

For a detailed exploration of responsible AI, the Presidio Recommendations offers 30 actionable steps, emphasizing open innovation, collaboration, and societal progress priorities.

?????? ?????????? ???? ???????????????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????? ?????????????????? ????????????????!

Prominent authors including John Grisham, George R.R. Martin, and Jodi Picoult are among 17 writers taking legal action against OpenAI.

They accuse the tech giant of

"systematic theft on a mass scale,"

asserting that the AI-powered ChatGPT program is using their copyrighted works without consent.

The lawsuit, backed by the Authors Guild, underscores the growing concerns in the literary community about the impacts of AI on copyrighted content. OpenAI, while emphasizing respect for authors' rights, remains hopeful for collaborative solutions. This development follows earlier suits filed against the company, spotlighting the intersection of AI and intellectual property in today's tech landscape.

"???????????????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ???? ???? ???????? ?????????????? ???????? ?????????? ?????????? ???? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???? ????????????’?? ?????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????????????? ?????????????? ???????????? ???????? ??????????. ?????? ??????????????, ?? ???????????????? ???????????? ?????????????????????? ???????????? ???????? ?????????????? ???????? ???????? ?????????????? ???? ???????????? ???? '??????????????????????????' ???????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ???????? ?????????????????? ??????????????, ?????????????????? ????????????, ???????????????? ????????????, ?????? ??????????, ?????? ???????????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????????, ???? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ???????? ?????????????? ???? ???????? ?????????????????? '?????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????? ???????? ????.'"

?? ?????? ???????????? ??????????: ?????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??????????!??

The Abu Dhabi government's Technology Innovation Institute has released Falcon 180B, currently the largest openly-available large language model with 180 billion parameters, outperforming GPT-3.5 on benchmarks. Trained on an astounding 3.5 trillion tokens of text, this model offers great promise and innovation in the AI field.?? Explore its capabilities, from multiquery attention to reduced memory bandwidth requirements, and join the discussion about its potential impact on data localization and privacy.?? Learn more about this groundbreaking model and check it out on the Hugging Face Hub.

?? Unlocking Productivity Growth: Navigating Technology's Impact ????

The rapid advancement of technology has left us awe-inspired, but why hasn't it translated into soaring growth rates for advanced economies like the US? ??Despite claims during the pandemic that digital acceleration would be a game-changer, reality has proven different. Let's break down the why and what's next:

?? Igniting Growth: Technology is the fuel, not the fire. Productivity growth demands the spark of effective technological adoption. Tight labor markets can be this catalyst. As firms struggle to hire, they're compelled to integrate technology, driving real change.

?? Services Dilemma: Unlike manufacturing, services have lagged in comprehensive labor-replacing tech. Generative AI could be the answer, reshaping non-standardized human interactions. But it's vital to understand how tech, cost, and prices interact for macroeconomic impact.

?? Deflationary Drive: True productivity leaps come from cost reduction, not just product innovation. Tech-driven cost-cutting slashes prices, reshaping economies. Think beyond flashy apps – the heart lies in cost-price dynamics.

?? Case of Transportation: Think algorithms and sensors replacing drivers, not just app conveniences. Tech's growth potential hinges on driving down costs, making lasting change.

??? Consumer Benefits: Falling prices from tech-driven cost reduction empower consumers, freeing up income for diverse spending. Remember how mechanization freed up funds for other goods and services.

?? Defensive and Offensive: Tech-driven cost-cutting can be both defensive (survival) and offensive (competition). Firms leading on cost can reap rewards, while widespread labor-saving tech might lead to price wars and squeezed profits.

?? Generative AI's Real Impact: Generative AI's role in the tech mosaic is crucial, but let's temper our expectations. Bottom-up case studies can't predict exact macroeconomic shifts. Regulatory hurdles and societal acceptance play pivotal roles.

?? The Modest Boost: Rather than banking on outsized gains, let's draw insights from history. The last tech boom (ICT) in the 90s accelerated growth by around 100bps over a decade. Generative AI might boost growth by 50bps, adding a substantial $8 trillion to US GDP over a decade.

?? Long-Term Horizon: Like the internet's journey, generative AI's macroeconomic impact could take time. Patience is key, as small growth increments yield enormous results in the macroeconomic landscape.

?? Dream Big, Stay Realistic: The promise of generative AI is tantalizing, but measured optimism prevails. A balanced view acknowledges both potential and challenges. The journey towards growth continues with unwavering determination.What are your thoughts on the future of technology's impact on productivity growth? Let's continue the conversation!

SIGNOFF

Signing off for this week. Keep the feedback coming. Stay safe, Take care.

Stay tuned for more AI-powered insights and innovations in future editions of DEEPakAI: AI Demystified.

p.s. - The newsletter includes smart prompt based LLM generated content.