1st Snowstorm of the Season/New Year

Happy New Year everyone!

2021 is done...we're into 2022.?I'm ignoring that some are referring to 2022 as 2020 too!?Bad jokes are not the reason for this email.?Rather we have a fast-developing snowstorm on our hands, and for most it'll be the 1st snow of the season.??

Here's what's happening...The Mid-Atlantic has experienced recent record warmth and it's been much warmer than normal since the official start of winter.?Soil temperatures are warm...there's standing water from recent rains in many locations...these both tend to dampen snowfall amounts.?Nevertheless, most of VA, parts of MD, DE, NJ, TN, KY, WV, AL and NC will see accumulating snowfall on Monday.?A deepening wave of low pressure will set-up a deformation zone of snow as cold air invades from the north and before all the precipitation can exit off the east coast.??

Here's what to expect...Though there's considerable numerical model spread and forecast confidence is lower than normal, here's my attempt to give selected city snowfall forecast by Monday afternoon....Huntsville, AL, Lexington, KY, Dover, DE, Bel Air, MD, Efland, NC, and Williamsburg, VA - 1" of wet snow (mainly on the grass)..Nashville, TN, Charleston, WV, Towson, MD, Baltimore, MD, South Hill, VA, and Asheville, NC - 2" of snow...Beckley, WV, Columbia, MD, Rehoboth Beach, DE, Midlothian, VA, Richmond, VA, and Knoxville, TN - 3" of snow...Glen Allen, VA, Washington, D.C., Bristol, TN, Hazard, KY, and Atlantic City, NJ,?- 4" or 5" of snow...Johnson City, TN, Roanoke, VA, Ashland, VA, and Annapolis, MD -?6" to 8" of snow...Blacksburg, VA, Charlottesville, VA, Fredericksburg, VA, and Boone, NC - 9" to 12" of snow.??

Here's the impact...with very cold air to follow the areas getting snow, the impact to travel will extend beyond Monday.?As snow accumulates on wet road surfaces Monday morning, there's likely to be a layer of ice underneath whatever snow accumulates on top.?Travel (obviously) is not recommended.?Many schools will likely to switch to virtual learning as needed.??

A word of caution...I'm obligated to mention that one of my favorite numerical models, the GFS (Global Forecast System), is predicting even higher snowfall totals (in many cases, double!).?I've included the NAM (North American Model) as an attachment.?Though not always in agreement with this model either, I do like the placement of the heaviest snowfall.?As mentioned before, my confidence level is lower than normal, especially for an event this close.?Monitor your local forecasts from the National Weather Service.??

Meteorologically yours,

Ben