1987 vs 2024 "It's like déjà vu all over again."

The words of the inspirational and entertaining Yogi Berra went through my head on 5th August as the Nikkei 225 collapsed. I had seen this before - 37 years ago in 1987 as Black Monday wiped out portfolios across the globe.

Indeed, for Japan, the crash of 1987 had come back for a second time and the trading patterns were uncannily similar reflecting a similar state of the market: everyone margined up to their eyeballs, cash all tied up so investors became forced sellers, then the big investors computers took over and frazzled what was left.

The following day was the blame day with fingers pointed at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) shock rate hike, a shrinking economy and even a shrinking population. Expectations that support for Japanese equities had evaporated, and the BoJ policy would bow to press and public opinion - none of which had any element of truth.

Into 2025 and 2026, perhaps with echoes of 1988 and 1989.

What 2025 have in store for us is now the biggest question, as the summer holidays wrap up it is time to consider constructing the portfolio. We will have a new government in place, headed by a new Prime Minister who could be old guard, young blood or the first woman holding the top job. Whatever happens in the election, there are promises of higher rates and a stronger yen.

Astris Advisory Japan Seminars 2024 - Where do we go from here?

Based in Kabutocho, the heart of Japan's investment banking and stock market in Tokyo, Astris Advisory will be hosting a series of seminars on our work in Japan, and we will be presenting the opportunities and risks for investment which you need to be aware for the coming year.

Specifically:

• Japan Equities Strategy, the outlook for the economy, equities, interest rates, the yen and what the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance will likely do.
• We will introduce 'Herd on the Street' and 'Critical Minerals' products: our equity underperformance and short-selling report, and a look into minerals and materials markets.
• Best ideas from our team of analysts from small to large caps, thematic trends and where to position investor money.

The seminars are open to corporate and institutional clients of Astris, those on our trial services (including individuals) and members of the press. Seats are limited, please contact us for more details via the CONTACT FORM here.

Seminar Dates and Schedule

New York – 8th October (Midtown)

London – 10th October (West End)

Zurich/Geneva – 14th-15th October, schedule to be announced.

Singapore – 23rd October (CBD)

Tokyo – 14th November, (Minato-ku)

Best,

Neil

ASTRIS ADVISORY