1938 or 1939?
I just returned from 6 weeks in 7 European countries?meeting with 8 national cyber directors, warfighters, NATO executives, and a couple of former and current prime ministers.?This is what I learned: War is not a looming threat. WWIII has started and further Russian aggression in bordering countries is imminent.
Disagree if you want. But take a vote and you’d lose 2 to 1. Both allies and adversaries say WWIII has started. So WWIII has started.
If you’ve ever wondered what you would have done in the late 1930s and early stages of WWII, you’re doing it now. The historic parallels are salient. From the right wing results of the EU election, to rampant antisemitism, to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, apparently history both rhymes and repeats.
We must not squander the luxury of historic perspective to inform present-day decision making. The opportunity to do things differently is at hand. In retrospect, earlier US military intervention in WWII likely would have spared both civilian and soldiers’ lives, or possibly rendered the atomic bombs unnecessary. Let’s believe our allies in their certainty that WWIII has begun by supporting them at scale sooner rather than later.
Concurrent war in Central Europe, the Middle East and South China Sea is abhorrent and inevitable. The quickest route to peace is a decisive victory over the imperialistic, authoritarian initiators of aggression. Authoritarians understand strength. I am certain that demonstrated strength and resolve now will save American and allied lives later.
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Historically, an attack on the homeland has been the catalyst for US military intervention. But given the current heightened threat of domestic terrorism, is there any value in waiting for the next 9/11 or Pearl Harbor? Demonstrated military strength that supports allies in Europe, the Middle Eastern and South Pacific may be provocative in the short term, but will deter aggression both at home and abroad in the long term.
I do not want war. I do not want to send a single American warfighter to the frontline of any theater. But 6 weeks of meetings with senior Allied military and policy leaders has definitively shown that the point of no return has passed.
I fear that most Americans are unaware of this current condition.
As always, your respectful comments/reactions are welcome below.
Sr. Electrical Engineering Technician at City of Healdsburg | Sec+ |
8 个月I think the CCP and USA are "sleepwalking" to war.
Retired USAF and USA (civilian)
8 个月Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it...
Research Fellow in Semiotics at the University of Tartu
8 个月If historical parallels are to be made (always with caution and a grain of salt), after yesterday I’d say we’re in the déjà-vu of when Mr H asked for Sudetenland - and he is not getting it this time.
Space & Defense Technologies ?? Aerospace, Defense, and VC Advisor ?? Futurist ?? Open to Collaborations
8 个月Great observations Gentry. We are in conflict undoubtedly. Our adversaries use all elements of national power (DIME) to engage the west, as Dave L. recently and rightly highlighted. As Clausewitz reminds us, “war is an extension of politics by other means” meaning that the military element of national power is just one of the levers that our adversaries can and are pulling currently. The most important lessons from history, I think, are that we need to accept that there is ongoing conflict, ramp-up the defense industrial base while simultaneously providing materiel for those Allies and partners already engaged in a more traditional war (which further primes the base), and begin planning for large scale mobilization. We haven’t fallen over the precipice of U.S./NATO direct involvement in a “hot” war, but we need to start preparing immediately. You may enjoy my article from Monday on this topic’s application to reindustrialization: https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/rebuilding-americas-defense