17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks VI: November 11 - 15th Cycle Highs.
Nasdaq-100 & Russell 2000 Attack Upside Targes/Resistance; Signal Peaks.
11-13-24 - On October 16, 2024 the Weekly Re-Lay Alert titled: Crypto Correlation: Coincidence or Causality? followed up on the October 3rd issue of The Bridge and reiterated the outlook for a projected Bitcoin surge into November ’24, which was likely to accompany a similar advance in the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400.? It explained:?
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-- 10-16-24 - “The October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge focused on Currency War cycles and the potential for Bitcoin to see an October surge into a November ’24 high… At the same time, stock indexes were projecting a similar October surge with small and mid-cap indexes expected to lead the way.?
The action of Bitcoin is often correlated to the action of the Russell 2000 and this was/is another instance where their respective outlooks and resulting action have moved in close lockstep with one another.? Whether that is coincidence or causality - or a little of both - matters little…
Stock Indices remain positive with the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 validating analysis for them to lead the latest advance… greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.?
Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is unfolding.? Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24… the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.?
Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak - around 21,200/NQZ…
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing intermediate bottoming signals with Bitcoin turning its intra-month trend up.? That increases the likelihood for rallies into November 2024 - the next phase of the ~8-month (& midpoint of the ~16-month) Cycle Progressions that timed the March ’24 top.”?? -- 10-16-24 WR Alert --
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Russell 2000 Peak
This connection/correlation has been powerfully validated and is creating a situation that feels like déjà vu… from November 2021.
Not surprisingly, the Russell 2000 is exactly where it was - and where it peaked - in Nov 2021… at ~2460/QR.? So, too, is the related ETF - IWM - briefly spiking above 240/IWM as it did in November ’21.
It just fulfilled converging ~4-week high-high-high-(high; November 11/12th) & ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high; November 11 - 13th) Cycle Progressions.
At the same time, Bitcoin fulfilled its primary upside wave targets while attacking weekly & monthly LHR objectives on the first of two days when the greatest synergy of daily, weekly & monthly cycle highs collide - November 13/14, 2024.
Coincidence?
Causality?
Combination?
What are other equity indexes showing?
Stock Indices are fulfilling the outlook for a November rally, led by the S+P Midcap 400… Other index cycles peak during the current week - November 11 - 18th.?
A high at this time would fulfill an ~8-month high-high-high-(high) & ~12.5-month low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.? It would also fulfill a 17 - 18-week high-high-(high) & ~5-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression
NQ-100 Peak
The NQ-100 has been lagging (relatively speaking) and has only been able to retest its July peak while fulfilling the 1 - 2 month outlook for a rally back to ~21,200/NQZ.?
It was/is expected to peak during the (2) weeks of Nov 11 - 15th or 18th - 22nd and fulfill an 18 - 19-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that last timed the mid-July ’24 high.?
It has initially fulfilled that (with a peak on November 11th - exactly 4 months from it July 11th high) but not yet confirmed a peak.? The NQ-100 could see a quick drop to ~20,700/NQZ if a top is forming.
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DJTA Peak
The DJTA could also be signaling a top after fulfilling its upside range target near 17,600 - doubling the previous rally from ~15,600 - ~16,600, which occurred in the midst of this overall ~5-month advance from the June ’24 low near 14,600.? That low followed the October ’23 low near 13,600, which is where the Transports repeatedly found support between March ’23 & October ’23.?
13,600 - 14,600 - 15,600 - 16,600 - 17,600/DJTA = range trading parameters. ??
With all of these indexes reaching multi-month upside targets (or extreme targets), a peak could take hold at any time and fulfill the multi-month and multi-year cycles previously described…
The first sign of a reversal lower would be [reserved for subscribers]…
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Interest Rate Peak (Bottom in Bonds)
Bonds & Notes are poised to spike lower into mid-month and set a multi-week low - fulfilling their respective intra-month downtrends and corroborating ~1-month high (Sept 17) - high (Oct 16) - (low; Nov 15, 2024) Cycle Progressions.
They remain in an intermediate sell-off from Sept 16th - when intermediate cycles peaked and signaled the likely culmination of a large-scale ‘A’ wave advance from the October 2023 low.?
That September peak barely exceeded the August ’24 highs - highs that fulfilled multi-month and multi-year cycle highs (including the ~4-Year Cycle that timed peaks in 3Q 2020, 3Q 2016 & 3Q 2012) - and immediately reversed lower.? That is why it was/is such a significant cycle peak and why it was/is likely to hold for several months.
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This overall decline powerfully validated the outlook for a new sell-off (perceived to be a ‘B’ wave drop) that has been propping up the Dollar Index and which could ultimately weigh on stocks… particularly if any additional selling materializes.?
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Stock Index Danger (Panic?) Zone Begins November 14/15th
The next 1 - 2 days could be challenging for stocks if Bonds & Notes experience any additional (significant) selling…
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Gold & Silver Sell-off
Gold & Silver are confirming signs of multi-week or multi-month tops after attacking critical upside targets in late-October - the projected time for a multi-week (likely multi-month) high.
Silver peaked on October 22nd - along with related cycles in the XAU Index - while Gold waited another week to fulfill its own cycles.? Its late-October ’24 peak fulfilled the latest phase of an ongoing ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) - low (Sept ’22) - low (Oct ’23) - (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.?
The related ~54-week cycle and 27-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions peaked on October 28th - when both set their highest weekly closes.?
Gold stretched its intraday/intra-week high into October 30th, fulfilling a ~5-week/34 - 37-day low-high-high-high-(high; Oct 30) Cycle Progression and ushering in a bearish period for precious metals.?
Silver has entered the second week after testing and holding its weekly HLS.? That indicator usually generates a 1 - 2 month low in the ensuing 2 - 3 weeks.?
A low on Nov 11 - 18th would perpetuate a ~14-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.?
Multiple targets and support levels converge at 29.71 - 29.86/SIZ, with extreme intermediate targets near 28.00/SIZ.? Gold could spike down to its weekly & monthly HLS levels at 2499 - 2528/GCZ.? That is also where the rising weekly 21 Low MAC is currently located and where previous rallies found resistance (now support) in April - July 2024.
The XAU & HUI have dropped sharply after fulfilling upside projections in price and time as the XAU surged into a synergistic convergence of geometric cycle highs on October 21/22nd and topped while fulfilling an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 - 25, 2024 Cycle Progression as well as the following:
·???????? ~4-month low (Feb 13) - low (June 17) - (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
·???????? ~2-month low (Feb 13) - low (April 16) - low (June 17) - high (Aug 20) - (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
·???????? ~3-month high (Jan 12) - high (April 12) - high (July 16/17) - (high; Oct 16 - 22, ‘24) Cycle Progression.
That also fulfilled a similar ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) - low (Sept ’22) - low (Oct ’23) - (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression as in Gold.? They quickly confirmed those peaks, increasing the likelihood for a plunge back to or below their early-Aug ’24 lows.?
That dovetails with the monthly HLS (extreme downside target for Nov ’24) at 135.63/XAU and the current week’s HLS at 136.66/XAU.?
~132.50/XAU is weekly 21 MARC support with intra-year trend and range support at ~127 - 128/XAU.? A ~5-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression could produce a multi-week low by/on [reserved for subscribers].”? ?-- November 13, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
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Divergent Peaks
Key (leading) tech stocks were forecast to rally into - and peak on - November 8, 2024 while the overall NQ-100 index was expected to peak shortly after (weekly cycles pinpoint November 11 - 25th as the likely time… with November 11/12th having the greatest synergy of daily cycles).
The NQ-100 has initially peaked on November 11th, 2024 - exactly 4 months (120 degrees) from its July 11, 2024 peak. That reinforces the impending 'Danger Zone'.
The Russell 2000 has its greatest synergy of cycles now - on November 11th - 13th, 2024 - and has just made it back to (after three years) its November 2021 peak, the PERFECT time and place for a decisive peak.
At the same time, Bitcoin is precisely fulfilling the October/November ’24 outlook for a surge into November 13/14th and a peak above 90,000/BT - where a myriad of upside targets and wave objectives converge.?
(See the October 3, 2024 & November 11, 2024 issues of The Bridge for specific targets, wave structure, charts and analysis.)
November 11 - 13th completes an abundance of upside trends and cycles - in diverse equity indexes as well as Bitcoin - and ushers in a precarious period when a sharp sell-off is a much higher probability in the stock market.? That could stretch into the next phase of cycle lows… and even to extreme downside targets.? See related publications for details.
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Watch November 14th - 18th for Negative Validation!
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Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
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