17-Year Cycle Shift: Cryptos Corroborating January Stock Market Pivot… January 7th = Bitcoin Reversal? An Interest Rate Trigger??
January 6, 2025 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update:
Stocks Validate January 6th Cycle Shift… Set Secondary Peak on Schedule (and Precisely at Rebound Resistance); Parallels to 2007/2008 Grow. Do Cryptos Concur?
01-06-25 - “Stock Indices rebounded into January 3/6th, fulfilling upside projections and reinforcing future cycle highs and lows while potentially completing the rebounds from December 19th.?
January 6th is the ideal time for a secondary high, based on a myriad of cycles and timing indicators, so the coming days could be revealing.
On Dec 19th, the S+P Midcap 400 (the focus of 4Q ‘24 analysis projecting a top on November 22/25th) plunged right to its range-trading support and 3 - 4 week downside target at 3100 - 3125/IDX, where an initial, multi-week low was most likely.?
That came after it peaked precisely at its upside wave & range-trading target (~3400/IDX).
That initial low - likely just a stopping point on the way to lower levels - also fulfilled a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support, dropping to where the low before the previous (culminating) advance had taken hold in late-October.?
The S+P Midcap was expected to spike a little higher into January 6th and test 3180 - 3200/IDX before a new sell-off.
[Related indexes have pivotal 1 - 2 week resistance at 43,100 - 43,300/DJIA, 2310 - 2320/QRH & 16,200 - 16,400/DJTA - where previous lows and the descending daily 21 Low MACs converged today.? Those were/are the ideal ranges for rebound peaks on January 3/6th.]
The NQ-100 also had/has an intriguing synergy of intra-week (Jan 6 - 10th) resistance zones at 21,866 - 21,940/NQH that could, in the ideal scenario, create an intra-week high on January 6th or 7th.?
That would create the potential for a weekly (or outside-week) 2 Close Reversal Combo IF the NQ-100 subsequently declined and closes below 21,516/NQH on January 10, 2025.? The Weekly Re-Lay will elaborate on other near-term specifics.
The potential for secondary highs during the opening range of January 2025 would add an additional level of corroboration to the broader outlook for late-2024/early-2025…
In late-November, the DJTA also peaked right at its upside range target (~17,600) and then plunged back to its early-October low and range-trading support (~15,600) while turning its weekly trend down. It also closed below its weekly 21 Low MAC… an average that could turn down in the coming week(s).
The DJTA could be revealing some additional clues regarding 1Q ’25...?
Since its Sept ’22 low, the Transports have experienced three multi-month corrections of 11 - 12 weeks each.? If the current decline matched those prior three, it would drop into Feb 10 - 21, 2025.?
That could be corroborated by a secondary high on/around January 6th, creating a reinforcing ~6-week high-high-(low; Feb 17 - 21, ‘25) Cycle Progression.? A low in Feb ’25 would perpetuate an ~8-month high (Feb ’23) - low (Oct ’23) - low (June ’24) - (low; Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.?
[The ~8-month & ~16-month cycles are some of the most common in a majority of markets.]?
If a secondary peak was set today, it would usher in a 40-day ‘period of testing’ for many of these equity indexes - lasting into the middle part of February ‘25.?
In other indexes, this correction could stretch into [reserved for subscribers]...?
?
Interest Rates
Bonds & Notes continue to decline after bouncing into early-December, testing & holding their flattening 21 Low MAC (resistance) in late-November, and then reversing lower in the week after Bonds attacked and held their weekly LHR (extreme upside weekly target, usually tested right before a multi-month high takes hold).? That high also fulfilled an ~11-week Cycle Progression.???
The ensuing decline could last for half of that cycle and extend these declines into the middle portion of January - ideally bottoming between January 10 - 20th.?
A drop into Jan 10 - 17, ’25 would fulfill a ~2-month high (Sept 17) - low (Nov 15/18) - (low; Jan 14 - 17, ’25) Cycle Progression.?
A low during that time frame would also complete successive declines of equal duration with the Sept ’24 - Jan ’25 decline matching the Dec ’23 - April ’24 decline (both 18 weeks in duration).?
The longer this decline extends, the greater the risk that it will suddenly have a sharp, negative impact on stocks when the threat of stubbornly high interest rates reaches that point of critical mass (in traders’ minds & psyches).?
Monthly and longer-term weekly cycles project a future peak for [reserved for subscribers]… Bonds & Notes could still see lower levels with Bonds maintaining 1 - 2 week support at xxx-xx - xxx-xx/USH.? Notes have related support at xxx-xx - xxx-xx/TYH.?
The new intra-month trends should provide an important clue for the coming weeks.? It would now take a daily close - above or below the January 2 - 6th trading ranges - to project a corresponding move into mid-month. ?
If, at any point in the coming days, stocks begin to drop sharply on the heels of these rising interest rates, Bonds & Notes could set a low a little before the ideal cyclic time frame…
Bitcoin & Ether are bouncing after an initial sell-off.? A secondary high is likely on January 7 - 10th and could spur a second (sharp) decline.?
领英推荐
A 21 - 22 day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression pinpoints January 7/8th as the ideal time for that peak.”? TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!? ?-- January 6, 2025 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update
?
Period of Testing Validated
January 6th has initially fulfilled projected rebound timing and targets in stock indexes and ushered in a 40-day ’period of testing’ when the markets (and specific external factors) will be forced to ‘show their strength’… or underlying lack thereof.?
There are a myriad of technical indicators corroborating this conclusion - several of which have been validated as stock indexes spiked higher on January 6th and then began a new sell-off.
?
Mirror Image (to Dec 2007/Jan 2008)??
In 2007/2008, the DJIA set a decisive peak in early-December, sold off into December 18th and then rebounded into December 26th.?
That was followed by a much sharper decline in January 2008, bottoming on January 22, 2008.
In 2024, reinforcing the influence of the uncanny 17-Year Cycle, the DJIA set a decisive peak in early-December, sold off into December 19th and then rebounded into December 26th.? Déjà vu?
That was/is projected to be followed by a much sharper decline in January 2025… 17 years later… with short term cycles and technical indicators projecting a sharp multi-week drop to begin after a spike high on January 6th.? That spike high has just taken place.?
The DJIA and other indexes have already identified the ideal time for the low of this next sell-off.? This comes after the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 AND DJIA & NQ-100 spiked up to their rebound targets on January 6th, creating the ideal scenario for a new decline to take hold.? Other indicators are corroborating.
?
Could Cryptos Concur?
Bitcoin & Ether are poised to reinforce this scenario.? They often trade in sympathy with stock indexes… particularly the Russell 2000.? Cryptos possess the greatest synergy of daily cycles on January 7th/8th and are testing their own rebound resistance levels now.?
As a result, they are increasing the likelihood for a spike high and reversal lower on January 7th.
While there are multiple factors influencing this outlook, a primary one is the continued decline in Bonds & Notes (and corresponding rally in interest rates)… all coinciding with projected Cycles of Instability that could trigger multiple events in January 2025.?
Each additional day that Bonds & Notes drop is a day of exponentially-greater downward pressure being applied to stocks (and correlated markets).
?
January 6th 2025 Has Provided Multiple Validating Factors But Confirming Signals are Needed to Trigger Greater Instability in Stocks.
?
See previous Linkedin articles for corresponding analysis:
?
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
?
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
For details and related articles, go to www.insiidetracktrading.com.
?
?