17-Year Cycle Returns in 2024/2025!
Recurring Impact on Stocks, Interest Rates, Real Estate, Commodity Inflation, Currency, etc.
Why Is This Phase Likely to be More Intense?!?!?
?
?
01-03-24 INSIIDE Track: Outlook 2024 - The 17-Year Cycle - “The ramifications of 2020’s pandemic continue to reverberate through the global economy.? Even though many things appear to have ‘returned to normal’ (whatever ‘normal’ is), there are many others that keep reacting and re-reacting to the consequences of that massive global disruption.
Various inflation gauges are producing dramatically-divergent conclusions.? It often depends on ’which’ inflation someone is focused on.? For example, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (see chart on page 8) has been heading lower since March 2022.
?
In contrast, the Fed’s favorite PCE Index gained into late-2022 but has been declining - on an annual change basis for all of 2023 (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change).? However, interest rates continued to rise into 3Q 2023, likely overdoing it.
Corporations have lost their pricing power.?
After taking advantage of the early signs of inflation and recovery, often increasing prices 15 - 25% on some goods, these corporations have hit a ceiling even as the cost of goods remains high.? Significant layoffs began to emerge in the second half of 2023 and stock prices could suffer in 2024/25.?
Why?...
The Lag Effect...
In 3Q 2020, Jerome Powell expressed his desire for more inflation in the economy.? He was basing that on present and past information… ignoring any lag effect… and skewed Fed policy accordingly.? For the following 2 - 3 years, he got his wish.
Like clockwork, the overreactions began (sharp interest rate hikes) and continued well beyond their useful period… due to ignoring the lag effect.? One of the most intriguing aspects of current inflation is the cost of housing/rent.? And here’s where some misguided actions become apparent.?
While there were multiple factors spurring the 2021 surge in real estate, the 2022/2023 surge has been governed primarily by two factors:
-- Escalating interest rates and…
-- Unwillingness to sell properties with ~3% loans.
The dramatic surge in inflation & interest rates stifled home builders from creating enough new supply AND discouraged home owners from selling existing properties when realizing they would be trading ~3% loans for ~7% loans in a new property.
So, while other economic activity & numbers - that would normally help spur real estate demand and support - have risen throughout 2022/23, real estate activity has been artificially constrained.?
When rates get low enough to correct some of this unbalance, will consumer sentiment still be strong enough to sustain new demand (at dramatically higher prices).?
If not, what happens??
What if a receding tide ‘lowers all boats’?
2024 Instability on Tap
Recent issues have reiterated the outlook for a strong intensification of sunspots and solar storms in late-2023 through late-2024.? That was/is forecast to coincide with intensifying geophysical AND geopolitical activity.?
As stated last month:?
“Mass psychological instability on Earth is often a reflection of underlying instability below and above the surface (tectonic & solar instability).”?
Major earthquakes AND volcanic eruptions of the past couple months are corroborating this…
[Annual cycle pinpoints late-December through Late-January as time of dramatically-heightened risk of seismic events. January 15 - 19th is anniversary of Many related tectonic events!]
Stock Indices have initially fulfilled analysis for an overall rally from late-October ’23 into January ’24 - when a more significant top is still expected.? That was the focus throughout 4Q ‘23.
A high in January ’24 would fulfill their late-October buy signals, a myriad of daily & weekly cycles, and the latest phase of an uncanny ~24-Month/~2-Year Cycle.?
Stock indexes set peaks in Jan/Feb ‘22, Jan/Feb ‘20 & Jan/Feb ‘18 - all of which led to substantial sell-offs in the months that followed.? The setup for each 2-Year Cycle peak was also similar...?
In 2018, stocks rallied from Oct ’17 into Jan ’18.?
In 2020, stocks rallied from Oct ’19 into Jan ’20.?
In 2022, stocks rallied from Oct ’21 into Jan ’22.?
And in 2023/24, stocks began a strong rally in October ’23… and then advanced into Jan ‘24.?
If a high is set in Jan ‘24, that would perpetuate a ~24-month low (Jan/ Feb ’14) - low (Jan/Feb ’16) - high (Jan ’18) - high (Jan/Feb ’20) - high (Jan ’22) - (high; January 2024) Cycle Progression.?
Daily & weekly cycles and indicators are helping to hone the ‘ideal’ time for any additional (potentially divergent) highs with some indexes already signaling… (see Weekly Re-Lay for specifics).
Price action should help hone the timing for a more significant peak…
On a 1 - 2 year basis, the DJIA remains on track to ultimately reach its multi-year LLH [specific upside price targets reserved for subscribers]…
On an intermediate basis, several indexes fulfilled 1-month/30-degree & ~2-month/60-degree cycles with their late-December highs.? Those ~2-month cycles, previously discussed in the NQ-100 - last came into play in late-October and helped pinpoint the lows in most indexes, projecting a subsequent surge into December 26 - 28, 2023.
The related HCP diagram - illustrated on page 4 - has been in focus since the late-October buy signals and was just fulfilled in the NQ-100…
? .??
2024 Cycle Highs
All of the indexes are going through a lengthy topping process, reinforcing the potential for a repeat of the 17-Year Cycle (of stock market declines) in 2024/2025 (see page 2). That would perpetuate an uncanny cycle that timed 20 - 50% declines in 2007/2008, 1990, 1973/74, 1956 & 1939… AND coincided with Middle East wars.
?Price and wave structure is reinforcing this potential.? Several indexes - including the DJTA (and DOWU, DOWC), Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 - remain well below their 2021 peaks, reinforcing that this entire rally is a large-scale ’B’ wave bounce following the ’A’ wave decline that bottomed in June & Sept 2022.?
A similar - or larger - magnitude ’C’ wave decline should follow.
In some respects, this could parallel the action seen in 1966 - 1970, when stocks initially peaked in January 1966 and then sold off into Sept ’66.? They set an initial (’A’) wave low and then rallied into late-1968 when they set a ’B’ wave peak while retesting the 1966 high.?
领英推荐
That was followed by a ’C’ wave decline into June 1970 - when the DJIA dropped well below its September ’66 low.? Adding to the parallel, the Jan ‘66 peak was set ~4-years (49 months) from its preceding peak in Dec 1961.?
Similarly, the January ‘22 peak was set ~4-years (48 months) from its preceding peak in January 2018.
Those peaks were set ~2.5 years (28 & 31 months) from preceding peaks in July 1959 & May 2018.? Those 1959 & 2018 peaks were initial 6 - 12 month peaks set after 9 - 10 year bull markets, reinforcing a series of parallels from the 1960’s.
6 - 12 month & 1 - 2 year traders and investors should be [specific trading strategies reserved for subscribers; TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]…
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index has rallied back to its high after testing & holding support at 30,500/NK while fulfilling the downside objective for its 3Q/4Q ’23 decline.? That set the stage for a multi-month low followed by a rally into early-2024.
Another peak could be seen in 1Q ’24, fulfilling ~4-year & ~2-year low-low-high?? Cycle Progressions.? That is also a full ~17-Year Cycle from its 1Q ’07 peak (divided into an ~8.5-Year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, recurring in 1Q ’24) which was exactly 17 years from its late-1989/early-1990 major peak… which was 17 years from its 1Q 1973 peak…?
?
?Bonds & Notes are steadily confirming the October 2023 lows - when multiple cycles bottomed - and the onset of a significant economic shift as interest rates likely set a 6 - 12 month peak (low in Bonds/Notes) at that time.?
There are a myriad of factors supporting analysis for October ’23 to time a major bottom in Bonds.? Several are tied closely to the uncanny ~17-Year Cycle (see page 2), which has also governed stock market movement and which returns in 2024/2025, (providing potential parallels to 2007/2008, 1990/1991 & 1973/1974).?
It was 17 years ago the Housing Affordability Index hit its lowest level (prior to the real estate crash that occurred in the years that followed) of this century… until now.?
In many areas, that index has dropped below its 2006/2007 low point - validating that 17-Year Cycle.? Interest (mortgage) rates are a major part of that affordability.? Reinforcing that…
In 3Q 2006 (July/August ’06), the Federal Funds target rate peaked at 5.25% - completing a ~3-year surge in interest rates at the same time a major real estate peak was taking hold.
Exactly 17 years later - in 3Q 2023 (July/August ’23), the Federal Funds target rate peaked just above 5.25% - completing a ~3-year surge in interest rates at the same time real estate levels are at record levels and showing signs of topping.
[17 years prior to 3Q 2006, Fed Funds peaked in 3Q 1989 - just below 10% - while completing a ~3-year surge in interest rates.? The 17-Year Cycle remains uncanny in its accuracy and applicability… and should not be underestimated this time.]
In October ‘23, Bonds & Notes fulfilled a myriad of cycles that were expected to produce the final low of a 3+-year downtrend.? The Oct ’23 low fulfilled a ~12-month/360-degree low (Oct ’21) - low (Oct ’22) - (low; Oct ’23) Cycle Progression.
Oct ’23 was also the ~9-month midpoint of the 17 - 18-month high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that timed the Jan/Feb ’23 peak and projects a future multi-quarter peak for ~July ’24 (the same time the ~4-Year low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression - that timed previous highs in July 2012, July ‘16 & July ‘20 - portends a multi-quarter peak).?
?
The Oct ’23 low split that cycle in half and created the potential for a ~symmetrical 9-month decline/9-month rally sequence that could take Bonds & Notes back to their early-2023 highs.?
A low in 4Q ’23 also perpetuated a ~5-Year low (4Q/Oct ’08) - low (4Q ’13) - low (4Q/Oct ’18) - (low; 4Q/Oct ’23) Cycle Progression that is the inverse of a similar 5-year cycle impacting Crude Oil. ?
?
Following that October ‘23 low, Bonds & Notes triggered successive buy signals, which have catapulted them higher - already rebounding more than .618 of their 2023 declines as they progressively move toward their primary upside target - the early-2023 highs.
Bonds & Notes turned their weekly trend up, confirming a multi-month bottom, and are setting what could be an initial 1 - 2 month peak - having reached the primary 2 - 3 month upside objectives.?? A pullback into January 16 - 19th is possible.
Longer-term investors & hedgers could have been on the short side of Bonds & Notes from 3Q/4Q ‘20 but covered short positions in 2Q & 3Q ’23.”?? End of 01-03-24 (January 2024) INSIIDE Track
?
The 17-Year Cycle helped pinpoint the projected time for a MAJOR viral/disease outbreak in 2019!
?
The 17-Year Cycle also has a powerful impact on real estate and housing prices!
It has an equally-powerfully impact on commodity inflation (including energy, metals & grain/food prices)!!
?
How is the 17-Year Cycle Likely to Impact Markets in 2024?
What Specific Time Frame is Most Vulnerable?
Why is This 17-Year Cycle Phase Likely to be MUCH More Intense?!?
?
INSIIDE Track has detailed this uncanny cycle - related to solar/geomagnetic forces and oscillation - since 1999, when forecasting a MAJOR top in stock indexes for 2000 (34-Year Cycle Progression from 1932 low - 1966 high - 2000 projected peak).?
INSIIDE Track revisited the impact of this cycle in 2006/2007, as Eric Hadik repeatedly published forecasts for a late-2007 multi-year peak in stock markets to be followed by a devastating 1 - 3-year plunge of ~50% in many equities.
The Rest is History (which powerfully validated and fulfilled those projections… published long before the fact)!
2024/2025 is a Dangerous (and Opportune) Time in the Markets!!!
?
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
?
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com.