17 Risk Clinic – Season Greetings – A tale of two models

Consider the following two models of the original, a passenger airplane:

While I hold it in the picture in a clip, I can confirm that Model Plane 2 actually did fly through the living room during functional testing. The paper plane is the model that captures the essence of the original.

May your 2025 not be wasted on spurious accuracy! Seize the essence.

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References

1. I picked up this analogy of the two model planes from a Swiss Re Sigma Report, probably more than 20 years ago. I tried but couldn’t find the original paper.
2. The more detailed Model Plane 1 that doesn’t capture the essence of flight, was made using Craiyon. Its quality is testimonial to my (lack of) prompting skills and patience.