1.5C?
Jaime Saldarriaga, Ph.D.
Owner at Hydrology and Water Resource Science/Energy and Natural Resources/Climate/Utilities Regulation/Research/Mentoring/Global Issues/PEACE.
We all know what is that. It is a Parameter set in the Paris Agreement on Climate. It has been recently confirmed in Glasgow COP26 Meeting. Before, it was agreed at 2C and making an effort to accomplish 1.5C. Why this change?. Has it been clearly justified? . It is an Agreement based on a UN Recommendation. It is not exactly a Scientific Consensus as it has been put by some pushers of this Parameter. That needs to be made clear, because there have been too many scientific voices which disagree on that parameter and they persist as time goes by.
The Decision has been a political one, based on scientific studies. Actually it must be understood as a Politically Decided Parameter. Yet, there is room for Analysis and Discussion behind this Political Choice.
领英推荐
First of all, the underlying concept itself, the Global Average Temperature, leaves room for Analysis and Discussion. What is the meaning of this concept expressed as a Quantity? The Quantity is an abstract number not directly related to a real physical value at a given place/location and specific time. Actually it is a broad average of numbers representing real physical values at different locations and at different times which have been recorded during a specified Time Interval.
But, more serious than that is the fact that those numbers are not representative of a Homogeneous Statistical Population. In fact, they belong clearly to a Non-Homogeneous or Heterogeneous Population, because of the nature of the generating planetary/spinning phenomenon which causes different temperatures patterns at different latitudes, just to mention only one heterogeneity factor that creates heterogeneous populations. Other factors, like altitude above sea level, complicate even more the Heterogeneity Scenario. I prefer to stop here for the time being, and on this basis challenge the selection of the Global Average Temperature as a Sole Parameter to fix a unique cap/ceiling as an Absolute Limit to the Global Temperature Phenomenon. Is there a need to fix a unique number to this questionable Conceptual Parameter?