#120 Artificial Intelligence (AI) / New Technologies
The Debt Crisis Problem - #120 Artificial Intelligence, New Technologies
We’ve Got Some New and New Exciting Risks to Deal with Here
How Disruptive Will AI and Other New Technologies Become? –
As new technologies emerge, it’s obvious that the world belongs to the younger generations, in my opinion. There’s got to be an increasingly uneasy feeling for older people, especially seasoned professionals, on what AI will mean for their careers. Many people, young and old, who are tied to long-term mortgages to service, and cannot afford to have their jobs replaced by AI. The older folks may never fully appreciate or even grasp what fascinating technologies are being developed in the first place.
That said, as AI comes online, there are more and more voices of caution, concern, and some unnerving warnings. New technologies are supposed to be wonderful enhancements to improve our living standards, making and doing more things faster and cheaper. After all, what is wrong with increased productivity, cost savings, possibly superior healthcare, and financial services, to name but a few benefits? Better decision-making is another plus. But people also have a right to be concerned that AI and other new technologies will be very disruptive too. How many good paying jobs will be replaced by machines? Another concern, if you’ve ever used AI, one must wonder if AI automatically picks up bias, and can bias even be avoided? Could AI somehow properly manage or deal with personal data privacy?
What’s the world going to look like in 10-15 years? But who can or will hold AI accountable? Will it be regulated before it ‘gets out of control’? Fundamentally, AI could change the way we work and live each day, whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. It would also create new jobs and industries. However, due to the aging public, it’s a reasonable question to ask as to whether there be enough sufficiently trained and educated technicians to transition AI for the next generation. Another reasonable question is whether the US will be able to effectively compete? That sounds like a no-brainer, but won’t talent go to the highest bidder? These are just a few important questions to start thinking about. Surely, there will be many more questions than answers, and most will not know what is even coming for some time.
New National Security Risks and Rewards –
Could AI be used to launch or even to defend against cyber-attacks and other national security threats? Obviously, the US Government, as well as other foreign governments, could use AI to open a new set of national security opportunities and challenges and maybe even lead to another arms race. Imagine military grade above-ground and underwater drones that can detect enemy targets or personnel, with precision, Or, using unmanned ground vehicles to fight without risking human lives.
AI is used for counter-drone systems, optimize military logistics and supply chain management. The whole nature of warfare for air, sea, land, and space, using unmanned weapon platforms seems a bit on the incomprehensible side of thinking for the average person. Less expensive drones with AI are widely used in modern conflicts as we are currently witnessing. They are being used to travel far distances to hit critical energy targets with their saddled bombs, causing enormous damage to refineries (higher oil prices). How about robotic soldiers?
New Technologies Just Keep Coming; They Can’t Be Stopped –
Upcoming technologies will include blockchain, quantum computing, and biotechnology. Each should have wonderful new benefits, but they also come along with new risks, like money laundering, fraud, breaking encryption, new biological weapons, and maybe even new engineered viruses, like Covid19? Blockchain technology is used for crypto-currencies like Bitcoin for peer-to-peer digital transactions (without banks) where digital identities are secured without centralized authority oversight.
The lack of transparency increases money laundering and the financing of illicit criminal transactions risks without the ability to identify the parties to a financial transaction. It can also be used to send cross-border payments, healthcare data management, real estate transactions, and even voting systems. Quantum computing is a cutting-edge technology to perform complex calculations well beyond the capacity of regular computers. Quantum computers can accelerate machine learning algorithms and enable the development of even better AI systems. It uses quantum mechanics, which is part of physics that deals with atoms and electrons particles, called ‘qubits.’ What? Yes, atoms.
All this gives the notion that these technologies are advancing at exponential speed. Where does it stop, or can it even stop? Before it gets out of hand, will there be so many cybersecurity attacks that society will have major disruptions? It should affect the job market as quantum computers may even replace entire industries as things evolve – that’s the concern. Can the US even keep up with China, or other countries? Biotechnology deals with living organisms by combining biology, chemistry, and engineering to create innovate solutions in healthcare, agriculture, and environmental protection.
AI is also used for biometric identification that can analyze and recognize faces, fingerprints, eye (iris) scans. In healthcare, it is used to create new drugs, therapies, diagnostics, and medical devices, including vaccines, insulin for diabetes, regenerative medicine to repair or replace damaged tissues and organs. Agriculture applications include modifying crops to be resistant to pests and diseases, drought-tolerant or high-yielding crops, or to produce biofuels and renewable energy sources. It all sounds good, but will the US be able to effectively manage these risks to protect its interests and national security? How disruptive will this be? And, at what cost? You hear of the billions of dollars being spent on these technologies, but how much of it is simply deficit spending?
Will Careers in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math be at Risk (Disrupted)?
Consider These Warnings –
“A Nobel Prize-winning economist is sounding the alarm about the future of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) careers amid the rapid development of artificial intelligence, arguing that many of the currently in-demand jobs could soon be obsolete. ‘The skills that are needed now - to collect the data, collate it, develop it and use it to develop the next phase of Al, or more to the point, make Al more applicable for jobs - will make the skills that are needed now obsolete because it will be doing the job,’ said Christopher Pissarides, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, in a recent interview, according to a report from Time. ‘Despite the fact that you see growth, they're still not as numerous as might be required to have jobs for all those graduates coming out with STEM because that's what they want to do.’
“The comments come as 2023 became a breakthrough year for Al technology, which has rapidly developed and gained increased mainstream applications. But some have feared that such technology will make many current jobs obsolete, causing a major disruption to the world's labor markets. Despite the current high demand for young students to enter STEM fields, Pissarides says that could also change as Al continues to improve. ‘This demand for these new IT skills, they contain their own seeds of self-destruction,’ the award-winning economist said. Samuel Mangold-Lenett, a staff editor at The Federalist, told Fox News Digital that Al can benefit STEM workers by doing much of the ‘grunt work’ that takes its human counterparts more time to complete, but he warned there is a danger in becoming too reliant on the technology.
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“‘It can process data and run simulations in a fraction of the time that students, or even experts, are
able to. It can also allow for more complex problem-solving purely by the sheer amount of information it can process and the speed at which it can process it,’ Mangold-Lenett said. ‘We need to be careful, however, not to become over-reliant on Al. It could ... eliminate thousands of jobs and eliminate the demand for people to master skill sets that enabled us to become an advanced civilization.’ Jon Schweppe, the policy director of the American Principles Project, echoed a similar sentiment, telling Fox News Digital that there is a risk in allowing Al to do too much of the work for us.
“‘There's a serious risk in the rush to improve Al technology that we lose sight of what this is all for. Do we really want to live in a society where Al is directing our civilizational progress and we are simply slaves to its inhuman whims and impulses? Of course not,’ Schweppe said. ‘Al can certainly increase what we are capable of, but it should be viewed as merely a tool to further humanity's desired ends, not as something divine to which we must subordinate ourselves.’" (Economist warns new tech could make wide range of high-skilled jobs 'obsolete', Michael Lee, 01/05/2024)
A Disruptive Technology Coming After 300 Million Jobs? –
“The International Monetary Fund warned that nearly 40% of jobs across the globe could be affected by the rise of artificial intelligence, with high-income economies facing greater risks than emerging markets and low-income countries. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva urged policymakers to tackle this ‘troubling trend’ and to proactively take steps ‘to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions.’ ‘We are on the brink of a technological revolution that could jumpstart productivity, boost global growth and raise incomes around the world. Yet it could also replace jobs and deepen inequality,’ Georgieva said.
“The IMF noted that about 60% of jobs could be impacted by Al in high-income nations, and roughly half of these may benefit from Al integration to boost productivity. Comparatively, Al exposure was estimated to come in at 40% in emerging markets and at 26% in low-income countries, respectively. The IMF also flagged that Al could affect income and wealth inequality within countries, warning of ‘polarization within income brackets.’
“It said workers who are able to access the benefits of Al could increase their productivity and salary, while those who cannot are at risk of falling further behind. Goldman Sachs has previously warned generative Al could impact as many as 300 million jobs worldwide, although the Wall Street bank acknowledged the technology could spur labor productivity and growth and boost gross domestic product by as much as 7%.” (IMF warns AI to hit almost 40% of jobs worldwide and worsen overall inequality, Sam Meredith, 01/15/2024)
Election Disruption from AI
AI Risks for the Upcoming Elections –
“As around half of the world's adult population heads to the polls in a bumper year of elections, concern over the role of artificial intelligence in disrupting outcomes has topped the list of the biggest risks for 2024, according to a new report. Concern over the impact of artificial intelligence in disrupting election outcomes has topped the list of the biggest risks for 2024, according to a new report.
“The World Economic Forum's ‘Global Risks Report 2024’ ranked Al-derived misinformation and disinformation ahead of climate change, war and economic weakness. The report's authors said that the combined risks are ‘stretching the world's adaptative capacity to its limit,’ and called on leaders to focus on global cooperation and building guardrails.” (Election disruption from Al poses the biggest global risk in 2024, Davos survey warns; Karen Gilchrist, 01/10/2024)
CONCLUSION – SO WHAT, WHEN, HOW IT AFFECTS YOU?
Unforeseen Events with AI and New Technology Risks Will Increase –
What can one even say, right? First, the world is changing and is going to change even more. Jobs, elections, will be at risk. AI and new technologies will change the world we live in, with most people not knowing what hit them.
Perhaps the most concerning part is everybody knows that bad actors (individuals, groups, governments) will use these wonderful tools in evil and nefarious ways. They will use them to get power and control over others at any cost. Which means, most certainly, the US will have to spend countless billions of dollars to defend and protect its national security interests. Military applications will obviously become more enhanced, thanks to the billions being spend on national defense. The problem is that the US doesn’t have the ‘dry powder’ or ‘room on the national credit card limit’ it needs to spend without jeopardizing a default on its debt and the subsequent debt crisis.
AI and new technology risk will also be disruptive in 2024-25 and beyond. Those countries that have funding and access to new technologies will be in a superior position to take advantage of the same. Regardless, AI-powered solutions will be used to streamline operations and increase productivity in healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, retail, and finance. The concern of how AI is governed will increase as policymakers and other organizations try to come up with guidelines, standards, and even regulations.
Overall, it will be difficult to catch your breath as transformative changes through every job marketplace and in society will take place. If you like change, you’re in the right spot. Untold billions will be spent on AI, and the US Government will spend more than its fair share in producing AI tools for national security, deficit spending to be put atop the national debt pile. Nobody knows, but anyone can guess, that the price tag will be very high. Unforeseen events with AI and new technology risks will increase and add pressure on never-ending deficit spending. Can you smell a debt crisis yet?
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