12 Reasons Why We Won't Have A Housing Market Crash

Being in real estate for around 12 years now, and basically hearing the marketing is going to crash ever since, this has caused me to do the research to understand what is happening with prices and why they won't crash.

I don't know why pundits love to get on TV and scare everyone by saying housing is going to crash, stocks are going to crash and the like. And while I will concede yes, if you say it long enough, eventually the market will come down because it does. But with that said, every market crash is not the same. Just because we have some defaults and high credit card debts, it doesn't mean we will see home prices come down 30% in a year.

What is more likely to happen is we will continue to see prices go up up up, and the haves will have more and the have nots will have less. We have a very manipulated economy, and the government prints money, which fuels a lot of bad things, and is just theft by device.

The other thing we need to see for house prices to go down is a large event or mass foreclosure, highly unlikely.

With all that said here are my reasons:

1. People who bought with low interest rates aren’t going to walk away from their homes, if they were in trouble they could sell and make money, they won't foreclose.

2. People have tons of equity, even after two years of owning their home, people would need to loose 20% just to be upside down

3. We are millions of homes short in the economy

4. Skilled trades are dwindling as baby boomers retire. The younger generation isn’t replacing them

5. High divorce rate, people need two homes

6. People are not getting married and need two homes

7. Huge amount of institutional investors, they don't want to see their investment go down...

8. Millions and millions of Illegal aliens, they have to live somewhere.

9. Lots of available jobs

10. It’s harder to get a loan than in 2008, with lots more hoops to jump through, compared to the last crash

11. Our loans are mostly fixed rate mortgages not Adjustable Rate Mortgages, compared to the last crash

12. And the big reason, inflation! The government is printing crazy money. As the money supply increases, it is had to have assets go down. The money supply will keep pushing everything up.

So in regards to the last housing crash, what happened to my understanding through 2006 to 2009 was due to Adjustable rate mortgages being given out in years prior.

And people needing almost nothing to get a home loan due to Policy made that everyone needed a home. So with that said, people with no jobs or low income could get a home at a teaser interest rate of like 2.2% and no money down and then when the interest rate went to market rate their payment jumped way up.

So when they couldn’t afford it and or? saw that their “investment” dropped cause their neighbor foreclosed they just walked away cause “why hold on to something that is loosing money and I have nothing into it”

Moreover, in the last 3 years my home has gone up roughly $80,000 to a $120,000, I would never let it get foreclosed on.

Moreover, a lot of people could just sell and walk away with a pile of cash if they got in trouble with payments. So what is the mechanism for a market collapse? What would cause mass foreclosure? Right now, I’m not seeing it.

What I think is a more likely situation isn't a market crash because prices go down. But an inverse market crash where inflation takes off and house prices skyrocket and everything else.

So now a house costs a million and a gallon of gas costs 15 bucks…

My bigger concern is not a housing crash societal unrest due to inflation. The haves get richer and the have nots get angrier.

If you need help selling a home or buying, let me know! I'm happy to help!

If you are curious about your possible sale price, go to MyHomeValueGR.com and see your potential price.