12 March 2021 China Steel Price Forecast & Analysis
Steel Rebar: On March 11, the average price of 20mm grade 3 steel rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 4,687 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 11th, snails continued to decline in the early trading, but raw material futures stopped falling and stabilized. In the morning, domestic construction steel prices partially loosened. In the afternoon, as futures rebounded sharply, low-level resources in most cities rebounded, and speculative demand in the market increased, resulting in higher volumes throughout the day. At present, due to the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan area, the production of rebar increased slightly this week, which was less than expected; the construction steel warehouse ushered in an inflection point, and apparent consumption increased significantly. The overall orientation is good. At the same time, futures are rising to restore the pessimistic mentality. It is expected that short-term spot prices may rise.
Hot-rolled coils: On March 11, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4,892 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to the statistics of this website, the output of hot-rolled coil steel mills continued to decline this week, and the factory and social warehouses also declined. In addition, the later resource costs were relatively high, and the sharp increase in the late afternoon on the 11th boosted the spot price. The rebound. However, it is difficult for the terminal to accept high-level resources, procurement is still relatively cautious, and it is difficult to continue to increase the volume of transactions. On the whole, the price of hot-rolled coils is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short-term.
Cold rolled coil: On March 11, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 5,638 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a fundamental point of view, factory warehouses and social warehouses continued to decline, and the inflection point of cold-rolled inventory was confirmed. Apparent demand was 893,000 tons, a weekly increase of 16,300 tons, and demand continued to recover rapidly. On the market side, the market sentiment was pessimistic in the morning on the 11th. , The quotation was lowered, the afternoon futures rebounded sharply, the quotation of low-priced resources in the market was raised, and market confidence was restored. On the whole, the short-term domestic cold-rolled prices are mainly rising.
Steel Plate: On March 11, the average price of 20mm common plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4,926 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Sales pressure brought about by the return of pallet funds and the fall in raw material prices led to the continued decline in market prices on the 11th in the morning. Driven by the futures market in the afternoon, traders' attitudes improved, prices began to rise in some areas, and transactions increased. On the whole, it is expected that the price of medium and heavy plates will increase in the short term.
Imported ore: On March 11, the imported iron ore market rose sharply. On the 11th, Qingdao Port 61.5% Australian PB fines reported 1140 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; 62.5% PB lump ore reported 1,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Coke: On March 11, the domestic coke market was operating steadily and weakly. In terms of supply, coke companies have continued to be enthusiastic about starting operations. During the two sessions, local environmental protection controls were strict, and some coke companies had limited shipments. In addition, new production capacity has been put into production recently, and coke inventories have rebounded slightly. In terms of demand, traders are less motivated to purchase. Most of the resources of coking enterprises flow to steel mills. Most of the coke resources in the plants are rising steadily. The pace of coke procurement has slowed down. Tangshan's environmental protection policy has been tightened again, and steel mills have restricted production and maintenance efforts. Increased, the demand for coke has been suppressed. It is expected that the coke market will continue to weaken in the short term.
Scrap steel: On March 11, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,992 yuan/ton, which was 4 yuan/ton lower than the price of the previous trading day. On the 11th, the scrap steel market was affected by the decline in finished products, and the mood was bearish. The market pulled back slightly, and the bearish mood was not strong. Recently, the arrival of steel mills has risen sharply. Except for the increase in delivery from contracted households, scrap steel bases generally increase prices to receive goods. Some varieties are more popular. It is expected that scrap prices will follow the trend of finished products in the near future.