11.1.2019, Friday – Several Stocks and Indexes Attempting to Breakout

Check out this week's video listed below for a more in-depth analysis!

The Week:

• The S&P 500 tested the gap-up $3028 level (all-time highs) and held! From a technical standpoint this was encouraging.
• While there continues to be controversy as to whether something concrete will truly come from trade negotiations with China, we do know President Trump and Xi Jinping are set for a November 17th meeting in Chile to sign interim trade deal. Sources claim the trade negotiation will come in a 3 phases over time.
• Solid earnings out of Facebook and Apple didn’t hurt in extending the rally. Overall, earnings thus far have been better-than-expected; not surprised.
• S&P 500 tests all-time highs on news that the US and China are close to finalizing some sections of trade deal. Hopefully this isn’t a “buy the rumor; sell the news situation” at all-time highs.
• S&P 500 Support below: $3015, $3000, $2989, & $2960.
• S&P 500 Resistance: $3028 (All-time highs) – Another 4-5% upward could be in the cards before year-end if we breakout from these levels. In reality, don’t be surprised if we test this current level for a bit. For the market to remain at these levels, we believe Growth names will need to pick-up the pace relatively fast.
• The longer the Russell 2000 is testing its dreaded $1570-$1580, which it has struggled to breakout and hold for quite some time.
• Truthfully, while “value-names” continue to do well, growth-names are struggling to advance, which does concern me. We might need a test lower to bring more people on-board. A test lower would probably be healthy as short-term, we are overbought.
• The Fear Index ($VIX) is at very low levels (low $12’s), but is not quite oversold. We will continue to watch price action. There could be a bit more in the tank for Major Indexes prior to more consolidation; Afterall, we have been consolidating for 1.5 years! COME ON GROWTH NAMES!
• With record amounts sitting on the sidelines, low expectations on earnings, advancement in trade, an easing Fed, all after consolidating for 1.5 years, I would be cautious in becoming too bearish! A little pull-back could be healthy, but don’t be fooled by the recession talk every time we go down (3)% as this is normal price action.
• PREACH LINES: If this is you, do yourself a favor and stop! “There are few investment predictions with a worse track record than the history of, “If X becomes President, the stock market will do Y.” – Morgan Housal @morganhousal
• PREACH LINES: Stop over thinking things and just listen to price. You can’t even balance your own checkbook but you think you understand what the economies of 195 countries intertwined are doing? – Joseph Fahmy @jfahmy

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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

This post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Jonathan M. Gurney. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

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