10 years is all it takes

I recently watched a fascinating Instagram clip from a 1995 interview with Bill Gates . The host, a bit skeptical, was asking about this new thing called the internet. He even mocked it, saying he couldn’t see what advantage it brought. When Gates mentioned that you could listen to baseball commentary online, the host shot back, “Have you heard of the radio?” (Implying, why would anyone need the internet for that when we already have radio for live commentary and tape recorders for the rest?).Fast forward ten years to 2005, and the internet had completely changed the world as we knew it!!

Just the other day, I was reading this fascinating book Zero to One by Peter Thiel where he also briefly talks about AI in the end. Thiel says, “But even if strong AI is a real possibility rather than an imponderable mystery, it won’t happen anytime soon; replacement by computers is a word for the 22nd century.” That was in 2014. Now, in 2024, we all know where AI stands—significantly more advanced than anyone might have guessed a decade ago!!

Going even further back: the Wright Brothers achieved powered flight in 1903, and by 1912, the first transcontinental flight had already happened. What once seemed impossible became a reality within a decade.

Today, as the initial excitement around AI begins to settle, you'll find articles claiming that its potential is overhyped. This reminds me of that TV host who doubted the internet’s future. But here’s the key takeaway: whenever you come across such skepticism, take a step back and look at events through a 10-year lens. Once you adjust your perspective to a decade, everything starts to look different.

If you’re a founder, don’t lose hope. If you're working on something truly transformative, figure out what the tipping point will look like—and ensure you have the runway (resources, capital, and grit) to reach that moment. History has shown us that real change takes time, but when it happens, it happens fast.

For investors, before dismissing an idea as premature, remember how much the world can change in just 10 years. The choice you need to make is clear: do you want to chase trends or help create them? It’s a tough call, but the highest returns lie in identifying the next breakthrough, not just following what's already hot.

And for those simply curious about AI’s future—whether it will change your world—look at what’s already happening.... Elon Musk has introduced the humanoid robot Optimus, Robovan, and Robotaxi. Boston Dynamics is pushing the boundaries with robots that can run, jump, and dance.

So the question isn’t whether this technology is practical today—it’s about how transformational a world we are heading to in 10 years. Change is happening but can you see it?

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