10 Years: The 4G LTE Foundation

We've been together for a decade now

Still everyday I'm lovin' you more

You're so fascinating

And I can't remember the last time I was bored

How does it keep getting better?

We got a good thing going

Several weeks back, I used a Psychedelic Furs song as the launch pad for some musings on Open RAN. Now, Iceland’s Daei Freyr might not rival The Furs’ chart success, but their Eurovision 2021 entry – 10 Years – got me thinking about the mobile industry circa 2011, the arrival of LTE, and what 4G has delivered in the last decade. To be fair, I was catching up on a work backlog while watching the contest, but still…

Of course, most of us know what LTE has delivered; at the end of last year, nearly 57% of mobile connections were on 4G, continuing to drive the app economy. What’s more interesting, though, is what happens in the next 10 years. 

• Everyday I’m Lovin’ You More. It’s one thing to note that LTE captured 57% of mobile connections at year-end 2020. It’s another to put this into the context of two other dynamics. LTE’s growth in the share of mobile connections took place alongside a growing base of connections; we’re talking about an increasingly large proportion of an increasingly large number. What’s more, LTE’s share of mobile connections hasn’t peaked. 5G will start eating into 4G’s dominance after 2023 when LTE accounts for 60% of mobile connections. But even in 2025, the share of connections on 4G will be higher than it is today, building on an additional 200 million LTE connections.
• The Last Time I Was Bored. I envy anyone who can’t recall the last time they were bored. I recall it very well. It was earlier today. And what did I do about it? I pulled out my phone and watched an HD video about gravel bikes. My wife was on a work call, so I made sure I was on the mobile network. Extrapolating the example beyond me, you can replace “gravel bike” with “cat.” You can replace “video” with “game.” Regardless, the point is clear. Mobile devices and networks are increasingly central to everyone’s daily lives. This only accelerated in the face of a global pandemic. As a result, mobile network traffic continues to grow, and nobody expects the pace of that growth to taper off anytime soon. This reality is a major justification for 5G investments. But, it also underscores the importance of LTE investment, whether alongside or in the absence of 5G.
• You’re So Fascinating. Cat video references inevitably imply frivolous consumer use cases. That’s not fair; consumers generate the majority of operator revenues and most of them actually prefer dog videos (well, that’s my experience). But, do you know what operators really find fascinating? The enterprise revenue opportunity. (See what did there? Slick, right?) I probably don’t need to tell you why; the consumer dominance of operator revenues means that enterprise digital transformation represents real revenue upside…IF operators can sell into the opportunity. This is why 5G Era innovations around private wireless and edge networking get so much attention. And it’s why operators aren’t waiting for 5G to execute on their enterprise strategies. Private wireless on LTE. Edge teamed with LTE. LTE-M and NB-IoT for connecting enterprise assets. As with consumer use cases, the enterprise opportunity may be a central 5G justification, but LTE remains a critical tool for executing on it.
• How Does It Keep Getting Better. Let’s skip forward from the discussion of 4G and 5G to talk about 6G. (no, don’t leave yet – I promise I’ll make it quick) While futurists and marketers dream up potential 6G use cases, I’m looking forward to the ways in which 6G R&D finds its way into 5G solutions. That’s right, 5G will continue to evolve into the foreseeable future. And so will LTE. Increased spectral efficiency for massive MTC. Improved NR-LTE co-existence. MIMO enhancements. Mobility enhancements. MBMS enhancements. 3GPP Release 16 suggests all of this, promising a lot more life for today’s 4G networks.
• We Got a Good Thing Going. By most measures, 5G growth has been phenomenal. We expect to end 2021 with nearly 7% of mobile connections on 5G – three years after the first commercial services launched. It took 4G more than twice as long to do that. So, why care so much about LTE? It remains to be seen how 5G will ramp in the long-term, but one thing is certain in the near-term: 5G success depends on a solid 4G foundation. While we wait for Standalone 5G to become the norm, today’s Non-standalone networks require 4G coverage to enable 5G services. And, even when SA is launched, robust 4G capacity will be key for ensuring service consistency for users dropping out of 5G coverage. Add in the fact that VoLTE is foundation for 5G voice services and the role that LTE plays in 5G success is clear.

You might not know it from the video (a video you REALLY NEED TO WATCH), but 10 Years is an anniversary song, “a personal ode” to the writer’s wife of 10 years. While commercial LTE services were introduced before 2011, they accounted for just over 0.1% of mobile connections at the end of 2010. It’s fair, then, to think about 2021 as LTE’s 10 Year anniversary, look back at what it’s accomplished with full faith that the best is yet to come.