These 10 Trends are Affecting the Healthcare Economy the Most

Last week, healthcare-focused market research firm?Trilliant Health ?released a?report ?detailing the most significant economic trends affecting stakeholders in the U.S. healthcare sector this year. Some of the main ideas covered in the report included Americans’ worsening physical and mental health, the industry’s shift away from traditional care pathways, and the way patients’ decision making is becoming increasingly driven by consumerism.?

Here is a summary of the 10 trends Trilliant has deemed as most impactful in shaping the healthcare economy.

1: “The commercially insured market continues to erode”

The uninsured rate in the U.S. reached 7.7% early this year, thanks in part to the Affordable Care Act and pandemic-era flexibilities. However, the number of people in the commercially insured population dropped by 0.3% from 2021 to 2022 — which is important given most healthcare revenue comes from commercially insured individuals.

One factor that will greatly affect the commercial market is the fact that millions of Americans lost their health coverage this year due to changes in Medicaid coverage tied to employment status and procedural issues like address changes and missing forms. This has led CMS to pause Medicaid redeterminations in several states. How disenrolled patients handle their health coverage — whether they gain marketplace insurance, enroll in an employer-sponsored plan or become uninsured — will impact the payer mix of “almost every healthcare provider,” the report said.

Another significant factor impacting the commercial market is the country’s aging population — the number of births in the U.S. does not offset those who are aging into the Medicare market.?

The commercial sector will also experience major changes based on the country’s migration patterns. As people leave large coastal cities and flock to the Sun Belt, the proportion of commercially insured patients within both growing and dwindling regions will inevitably change.

2: “The physical and mental health of Americans is unraveling”

The mortality rate for Americans under age 40 increased in 42 states from 2018 to 2022. In California, Washington and Tennessee, the rate more than doubled over these four years. These spikes are “largely attributable” to the rising numbers of overdose deaths across the country, the report said.

Additionally, the demand for primary and preventive care has gone down in recent years, due in part to the fact that more and more patients are forgoing care because of cost concerns. The rising costs of drugs is also causing many patients to skip their medication, the report pointed out.

The report also noted that Americans’ heart health is declining, with rising instances of myocarditis in young people, as well as an increasing share of pregnancies with preeclampsia.

On the behavioral and mental side of healthcare, visit volumes have been consistently trending upwards since 2019. This includes marked increases in demand for treatment for anxiety disorders, depressive disorders, eating disorders, bipolar disorders and alcohol and substance use disorders. The rising prevalence of mental health disorders is especially high amongst the country’s youth, the report added.

3: “Drug and diagnostic investments signal emerging patient needs”

Most of the drugs recently approved by the FDA are ones that treat genetic diseases and cancer, and much of the M&A activity in the life sciences world has centered on oncology and rare diseases in recent years. Additionally, the drug pipelines at many of the world’s biggest drugmakers are heavily focused on oncology, the report pointed out.?

Drugmakers are investing in cell and gene therapies because they could greatly improve the way doctors treat cancer and rare diseases, but the complex and expensive patient journey that these drugs require is still hindering adoption.

The rise of?GLP-1 weight loss drugs ?is another important aspect included in this trend. Prescription volumes of these drugs shot up by 300% between 2020 and 2022, with Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic accounting for 65% of all GLP-1 prescription volumes. Much of these drugs’ use remains off-label — just a little more than half of patients on a GLP-1 medication in 2022 had a history of type 2 diabetes, according to the report.

4: “The tepid demand trajectory for healthcare services persists”

The demand for emergency care and behavioral health services is high, but healthcare utilization has been declining in most other care settings since 2021.?

The nation’s disease burden does not seem to be directly correlated with patient demand for care, the report pointed out. For example, the prevalence of chronic disease is continuing to rise, yet hospital admissions have declined more than 10% from 2008 to 2021. The report asserted that patient demand is highly dependent on local market characteristics — including disease burden, demographics, consumer preferences and access.

Trilliant’s report also predicted that the demand for healthcare services will likely remain cool over the next four years. Even among growing service lines, like oncology and digestive health, patient demand is not predicted to exceed a 1% compound annual growth rate by 2027, according to the report’s analysis of patient demand trends in Chicago and Houston.

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By?KATIE ADAMS