10 reasons to be positive about the energy transition

Last week I had a thought-provoking chat with the Outrage & Optimism podcast. The show has become a very important forum for debate on climate change – hosted by Christiana Figueres, Tom Rivett-Carnac and Paul Dickinson.

They have vast combined experience in this space – of course Christiana is the former executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. As the name suggests - the show is designed to debate both the outrage over climate change and the optimism about what more we can do.

Anyone who knows me will probably accept I am not one for outrage ?? I’d rather find solutions, than take positions. But I certainly find hope in optimism. And the belief that we can do good in this world.

So with this in mind - and with New York Climate Week (#climateweeknyc) taking place - I wanted to share some optimism of my own in this blog about 10 reasons to be positive about the energy transition:

1) Our energy system decarbonized faster in the last 5 years than it did in the 25 years before.

The shift from coal towards renewables and natural gas decarbonized the energy mix by 4% in the five years from 2014-2019 – the same reduction seen in total between 1988 and 2014.

Four per-cent isn’t enough. We need to go much faster in the next 5 years (and the next 25!). But the trend is going the right way, and accelerating. Energy is getting cleaner, quicker – and simultaneously more efficient, too.

2) To support economic recovery from Covid-19, governments are preparing to spend $1.7 trillion on green stimulus packages.

Government responses to two crises are converging, as they spend huge sums on green investment, aligning recovery from Covid-19 with the longer-term goal of tackling climate change.

Much of the money is going on transport and infrastructure - particularly towards green mobility.

This spending is not a cure-all. These huge sums are focused in developed countries – and building back better is even more critical in emerging economies because they are set to increase their energy consumption more quickly than the developed world.

3) The cost of renewable energy is falling fast…

The cost of solar panels fell by over 80% between 2010-2019. Onshore wind fell by 40%. Offshore wind fell by 29%. Going green is now far more affordable.

4) …and that means we’re using it far more.

Renewable energy capacity is doubling every two to three years Between 2014-2019, renewable energy accounted for almost half of the increase in total power.

5) Renewables are a better bet for companies.

A dollar invested today in solar generates seven times more power than in 2010. For onshore wind, it has doubled, and for offshore wind it has increased 60%.

That’s one reason why we’re aiming to increase our renewables spend 10-fold this decade.

6) EV battery costs have fallen by 90% in the last decade.

For cars, too, cleaner is becoming cheaper. Somewhere between 2025 and 2030, electric cars are likely to be price-competitive with traditional cars.

7) More than 100 countries now have net zero targets either in law already, in process or under discussion.

Two countries, Suriname and Bhutan, have already achieved their net zero targets. Six countries have them in law - Sweden, UK, France, Denmark, New Zealand and Hungary. Many others are planning their own.

8) The world is putting a price on carbon.

There are now 61 carbon pricing initiatives implemented or planned. These cover over 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

9) Access to energy is improving.

The number of people without access to electricity is now well below 1 billion, falling to 860 million since 2017. India continues to make incredible progress, with almost 100 million people reportedly gaining access in 2018 alone. Despite this significant progress, close to 600 million people are still without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa.

If we are to succeed in the energy transition, we need to make the supply of electricity clean, affordable and firm for everyone.

10) The thing that gives me the most hope.

The drive and determination of people. That is the biggest source of optimism I can offer. When I talk to people across bp and outside I can feel their excitement and belief in bringing change. In wanting to make a difference. In doing good. And it’s that energy that I think we must harness if we are to deliver the energy transition we all want.

I hope those 10 reasons give you as much optimism as they do for me! A big thank you to our energy economics people - the team behind our Energy Outlook - for pulling all of this information together.