10 People Predictions for 2024

1. More With Less - Year of Efficiency Continues
2. Autonomous Agents Everywhere All at Once
3. More AI. Less AI.
4. Data…Data…Data
5. For The Times They Are A-Changin’...Again
6. People Metrics - SEC Will Let Them Be
7. HR Gets Board
8. Remotely Experienced
9. Wink…Wink..Nudge…Nudge
10. Now Hiring

More With Less - Year of Efficiency Continues?

2023 rewarded companies like Meta (and across tech), which cut overhead and people costs. Meta reduced their big bet in VR and headcount (though they are still up headcount from growth in 2021,2022), focused their company on efficiency, and added bets in AI.?

The whiplash of the expectations from investors who were all about growth (even at the expense of profitability) to both growth and profitability will continue in 2024. With interest rates expected to decrease and followed by quantitative easing, do we swing the pendulum back to “blitzscaling”? Likely not; growth and profitability are the strategies until our short-term memory loss kicks in and we blitzscale again. Hey Meta…

Autonomous Agents Everywhere All at Once

Imagine you wake up with 30 LinkedIn messages that say, "Hey, we would like to chat about an “X” opportunity at our company. Your experiences in X, Y, and Z can be a wonderful addition to our growing company. Check out our latest thinking on this topic. If you’re interested, click here to set up time with our VP Recruiting”. The note, conversation, and connection were all completed by autonomous agents without human involvement. Yes, Autonomous Agents Everywhere All at Once!?

My prediction for 2024 is that AI will move from LLMs to a system that can spit out content and execute tasks. Organizations must do more with less as we move into 2024 (see first prediction). It’s not just recruiting but all parts of the business that require connecting to folks inside and outside your organization. The answer is autonomous agents - heck, they don’t sleep, unionize, or call HR.?

More of Less AI.

The watershed moment in AI (which has been around for decades) was the consumer application of a chat experience launched by OpenAI in November 2022 called ChatGPT. The launch of ChatGPT finally brought AI from behind the wizard's curtain into the daylight. The fastest-growing consumer technology ever. ChatGPT is still a tech or corporate phenomenon that hasn’t truly impacted the rest of the world yet. In 2023, everyone was talking about AI. In Q1-2023, we saw the highest number of S&P 500 companies citing “AI” on earnings calls in over ten years.?

As more and more AI infiltrates our lives, we will start to see more focus on AI, which will likely reduce the total amount of exposure. Given the risks, we are already seeing large companies take a cautious approach. The open source of LLMs will create little differentiation in that space, so a focus on proprietary data and use cases will be essential. We will see more powerful AI applications but much less of them, despite the GPT store coming in 2024.?

Data, Data, Data

A well-known quote by Cary Grant in “Only Angels Have Wings” is wrong - “Judy, Judy, Judy.” The actual line in the movie was, "Hello, Judy. Come on, Judy. Now, Judy." Grant never said "Judy, Judy, Judy."?

Anyway, in 2024, like years prior, it will be all about “data, data, data,” especially in HR and AI. As Professor Galloway exclaims, data is the new oil, and he has never been more fitting than in people analytics. With the amount of data companies are collecting these days, given the digital “breadcrumbs” we leave every minute, there will be exciting ways to analyze and provide insights. We all have assumptions about how our companies run, but the accurate view is looking at the metadata within tools. Here, you will find the behaviors and interactions of your company - your actual operations and culture. You will have to “Think Different” about what people data you look at inside your company. Check out this article - Identifying latent activity behaviors and lifestyles using mobility data to describe urban dynamics.?

With a more significant focus on people data, we will see new laws focusing on privacy protection in the workplace. We are already starting to see some of this in Europe, which will begin on the coasts here in the US.?

For The Times They Are A-Changin’...Again

Bob Dylan poetically sang “...for the times they are a’changin’” in the song of the same name. The song is a powerful anthem for social change, released in 1964, and warns against clinging to the past, urging people to accept and embrace the inevitable changes sweeping through society. Thinking back to 2020 with COVID and remote, the “grow by any means necessary” period of 2021, the rollercoaster ride of 2022, and the headwinds and correction of the previous three years in 2023. The times, it seems, are constantly changing. The one constant in business IS change. Change now happens in months versus years and decades, especially when the world gets introduced to new technologies like AI.?

We will see a continued acceleration of change within organizations. Organizations that plan in 3-5-year increments must plan in quarters and have multiple scenarios for each quarter. Organizations' ability to be agile and resilient will continue to be a must leading into 2024. A McKinsey & Company study found that organizations with high levels of operational agility were 20% more likely to outperform their peers during economic downturns.?

Human Capital Metrics - SEC Will Let Them Be

In lyrical poetry, Eminem raps, in his song “Without Me,” about how the FCC “won’t let him be” because they gave him problems with his lyrics.??

In this prediction, I am predicting that there will be continued efforts to have mandatory human capital metrics reported in SEC filings. As you may know, the SEC requires only headcount numbers for their filings, an example of a potential vanity People Metric. I have been watching the efforts of academics, investors, and human resource professionals in driving more required reporting around human capital. While there has been pushback from the HR community around this effort and the amount of work it will add to already lean departments, this is OUR watershed moment.?

HR leaders who talk about burnout or want a seat at the table will automatically get that seat and influence. Investors (even those focused on ESG) ultimately want to make money, so when investors directly connect human capital practices and company performance, they will push for more human capital investment, focus, and programs.?

HR Gets Board

He was fired, hired by Microsoft, and rehired by OpenAI. If you don’t know the story of the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, you may have been living under a rock. It was late Friday a few weeks ago when the tech world was shocked to learn that the world's highest-valued AI company had just fired its CEO, Sam Altman. The board had a problem with Sam, and Sam had a problem with the board - so they fired him. OpenAI employees wrote a letter expressing solidarity with their fallen CEO, saying, ‘If he leaves, we leave.” The employee support of Sam Altman may have been a turning point in the capital versus labor UFC match that has been going on for centuries. Would having an experienced HR person on the board prevent this? It would be hard to tell since only 3% of boards include someone with professional HR experience. PS - 3% of people prefer their steak well-done, so neither choice seems wise.?

My prediction is as the SEC adds more human capital metric requirements and investors/boards see a connection between human capital and business success, we will see more HR folks serving on private and public boards. Hey folks, have your AI autonomous agent call my AI autonomous agent!

Remotely Experienced

When Zoom’s CEO decided to bring folks back into the office, the entire business community started asking questions. If the company that helped every other company go remote asks their folks to come into an office, should we also bring our employees back? This copycat activity is relatively common in tech, so sometimes companies forget to ask, “Does this work for our people/company?”?

In a space with endless things to measure, the remote/hybrid/office decision is often based on someone’s perception or gut. You will hear things like, “I think we need to bring folks back into the office,” or “I think people are not being productive at home,” or my favorite, “If I can’t see them, are they working?” With many companies taking a “talent from anywhere” approach, what does it mean to bring folks back into an office when you have folks spread across the US? Employees say they are more productive, and leaders say those people aren’t as effective. It's what Microsoft calls Productivity Paranoia.?

In 2024, we will see a continued focus on the remote/office/hybrid approach, but instead of using “gut” decisions, data will play an important part. What does the data say about remote? Are companies being productive? In what ways will technology play a part in this story, especially as the first edition of Apple’s Vision Pro comes out? I have predicted this in the past, but my bet is augmented reality, and I think it will change how companies operate and collaborate.?

Wink…Wink..Nudge…Nudge

My second to last prediction is the increase in nudges within learning and development. Famously, Monty Python has placed the phrases "nudge nudge" and "wink wink" into the English lexicon. In this prediction, the “nudge nudge” will be systems that send notes and alerts that push us to complete specific tasks, check behaviors, or remind us about learning. If you have an Apple Watch, you’ve probably gotten a nudge to stand up or, as a Peloton member, to take Ally Love’s new class.?

Nudges will become commonplace in learning and development. Something like, “I see you have a sales meeting next week. Did you take the ‘Close the Deal’ training? I also see that you are presenting at the company’s All Hands - Do you want to brush up on your storytelling with data knowledge?”?

Nudges will become more persuasive and draw on insights from behavioral economics. These small changes to the learning environment can significantly impact learner behavior. By making minor tweaks to the learning experience, nudges can encourage learners to take action in their best interest. Now, go clean your room!?

Now Hiring

Despite a slight uptick in unemployment in 2023 from 3.61% in 2022 to 3.83% in 2023, we are still seeing historical ten-year lows in unemployment in the US. You can also see in demographic trends, thanks to Peter Zeihan, Gen Z represents a lower total US population than Millenials. Gen X is only 19.6%. You can see from the chart above that demographic challenges will eventually become a labor problem.?

Demographics will play an essential part in future economic challenges across the globe. Folks need to produce (outside of robots) and consume (robots don’t consume). In 2024, we will see continued job growth and a possible acceleration if the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates and adds quantitative easing. AI and automation will also impact the labor force, but I expect to see the number of vacant leadership-level roles increase in the future. We will also see a surge in manufacturing jobs returning to the US because of the continued global demographic challenges and the Chips Act. So, a soft economic landing, manufacturing shifts, and demographics will have most companies hanging up signs that read “Now Hiring” in 2024.?

What do you think will happen in 2024? What do you think I got right? Wrong? Comment below.?