10 Agritech innovations & the Hype-cycle

The ‘Hype Cycle’ from Gartner outlines five stages of technology evolution: ?????????

Technology Trigger (Trigger), Peak of Inflated Expectations (Expectations), Trough of Disillusionment (Disillusionment), Slope of Enlightenment (Enlightenment) and the Plateau of Productivity (Productivity). Applied previously to many sectors this article highlights how it relates to ten of the trends and innovations seen in the agri-food chain in 2024.

1) Controlled Environmental Agriculture (CEA) / Vertical Farming (VF)

CEA continues to be hyped because of the tantalizing benefits: reduction in food miles, water wastage, and crop protection; nutrient optimization, etc. The challenge for CEA / VF are energy and building costs and the need for appropriate financing models. ?While some (e.g. Plenty or Oishii) are succeeding, traditional greenhouses (e.g. the Netherlands) apply these same technologies to gain savings and environmental benefits- at lower cost.? CEA technologies are changing farming, but necessarily in the way originally expected.

Hype Cycle: after the Trigger and Expectations, CFA is coming out of Disillusionment and into Enlightenment.

2)?CRISPR is coming (really!)

Food and agricultural products using CRISPR (a naturally occurring mechanism to repair or remove DNA from living organisms in nature to repair tissues) are now reaching markets. Pairwise has launched mustard greens ?without the typical bitter taste; next are seedless blackberries and pitless cherries.? The Japanese firm Sanatech has launched a tomato with high levels of a compound that lowers blood pressure. New gene editing systems that are more accurate and less disruptive are on the way but in the meantime Crispr-Cas9 is going primetime in the food industry and farmers are already growing new products consumers are asking for.

Hype Cycle: CRISPR is transitioning from Enlightenment to Expectations as products start hitting the market.

3) Farms as power plants?

More and more farms are producing power from methane digestors (using manure, food waste, crop waste to produce gas) but now new approaches bring farming and power generation together. Examples such agrovoltaics (growing plants or animals below solar panels), sheep and cattle standing in the shade from wind turbines and aquaculture under solar panels in China show how this is possible.? Equally Heat pumps generating geothermal energy can be found on farms. The Wall Street Journal recently commented that farming communities are going green ‘without really trying’. ?Even carbon neutral livestock production has become possible as we think of the role farms are locations for power generation.

Hype Cycle: Technology triggers are inflating expectations.

?

4) Cellular Agriculture

North Carolina State University received $30 million to establish the Bezos Center for Sustainable Proteins. ?While fermentation and plant based analogues offer hope of more sustainable proteins, the science of lab grown meats is not going well. Tech Crunch reports $1.6 billion has been invested so far without a sign of commercial success. According to one economist it will require an investment of US$2 trillion (building 4000 factories at ~US$500m each) just to meet 10% of the global demand for meat.? Italy was the first country to ban cultivated meat and Florida and Alabama have impose bans. Cultivated meat innovator New Age Eats shut down, for financial and regulatory issues funding and regulations and Upside Foods reduced its workforce drastically.?Cellular meats still require antibiotics, stem cells, and expensive fermentation equipment. There are no long-term human safety studies on consuming cellular meat and this has also caused concerns. This food innovation may take longer to germinate.

Hype Cycle: This is one of the biggest disparities between consumer perception and producer reality. While the general population has high expectations, producers are (so far) disillusioned.

5)?SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel)

Sustainable aviation fuel is a hot topic: 98% of aviation’s carbon footprint comes from fuel, and agriculture biofuels are currently the only alternative ?An example is the joint venture formed by Green Plains to develop SAF from Ethanol. Aviation fuel from renewable sources could reduce carbon emissions by 4%; and by 2050 when it is expected we will want to travel more this could grow to 12% of all emissions. ??Agriculture as our travel savior?

Hype Cycle: Expectations?

6) Digital Agri

I have addressed in previous articles there are tremendous opportunities for digital technologies in food and agribusiness elsewhere: robotics. 3-D Printing, IoT devices and blockchain are all growth areas. Digitalization of farming will be critical to creating an agriculture that is more productive, sustainable, regenerative, improving animal welfare, the environmental footprint and the healthiness of the food produced. The implications for human health (precision nutrition, precision health tools) and food production (availing of increasingly precise production methods and tools) are key to sustainably and efficiently meeting future food needs.

Hype Cycle:? Driven by Technology Triggers.

7) AI - Artificial Intelligence & ChatGPT

Artificial intelligence can ameliorate human expertise (including mistakes, fatigue, and misinformation) in food and farming, The roles of agronomists, nutritionists and veterinarians could all be enhanced by AI. In particular, generative AI and large language models to make and communicate accurate timely decisions will become central to agriculture. As an example Danone is working with Microsoft to integrate artificial intelligence in its supply chain, training 100,000 of the yogurt maker’s employees to gain skills useful in “the AI-driven economy". AI can disrupt all aspects of food and farming, including the roles for humans. Disruptions, however, will come in waves, and the challenge will be anticipating which one(s) are likely to hit where, and when.

Hype Cycle: Driven by Technology Triggers

?

8) The Metaverse

Howard Buffets book 40 chances (each farmer has 40 harvests that they will manage within their lifetime) has been touted as a reason to consider the full benefits of the metaverse for agriculture. Whether virtual, augmented, extended or enhanced these new forms of reality will shape the business of food. These tools can be used to train employees, show the provenance of food items, and allow consumers to experience food before consumption.? The challenges of availing of the metaverse are paradoxically very real; the size and weight of the headsets and reducing glitches, headache inducing being the primary focus. ? Paradoxically the metaverse in the food sector has been both overhyped and under the radar.?

Hype Cycle: Driven by Technology Triggers

?

9)? Will we still need farmers, people in the food production chain?

Fewer people than ever aspire to be farmers, and it is getting harder to attract those who didn't grow up on a farm especially if it requires moving to rural areas. The gap is large enough that that leaders in agriculture might feel unlike the famous TV show it hasn’t ‘Got Talent’!? Robots are coming to the rescue, but they face serious challenges.?? ‘Who is going to fix my robot’ is a frequent complaint in rural environments where initial excitement faces the reality that skilled labor is required to keep them working.? Still, the robots are coming, and the skill will be in finding how to optimize their use within a complex and environmentally challenging environment. What do food, agribusinesses need when they look for leadership talent? Read Kincannon & Reed's Food for thought.

Hype Cycle: Driven by Technology Triggers

?

10) Prescriptive disease prevention through food

A recent Economist article on the need to feed mothers and children better to enhance the world’s IQ, demonstrates the link between nutrition and disease, and the effects of suboptimal nutrition.? The more we learn about micronutrients, nutrigenomics, the gut microbiome, epigenetics etc., the more we understand about their role of human nutrition and disease prevention. This will also be increasingly influenced by AI, with technology-aided and individually targeted nutrition initiatives. Both consumers and insurers can benefit, but will it mean that governments will act to legislate food choices? Food for thought!

Hype Cycle: Early in the Trigger phase

Conclusions

The Hype Cycle has two useful aspects for AgTech: as a frame for evaluating where a given technology is terms of its adoption for a given field, and as a reminder that each phase of the cycle will give way to the next. Farmers are only all too familiar with the disillusionment that can follow the hype, with over 100 years of history of meeting snake oil salespeople pitches promoting cures that are 'good for man and beast' . The oft mentioned ‘farmer resistance to change’ ?might be more accurately considered the result of having been burnt previously by over-hyped tech promises. ?

This article is based on my Keynote opening address to the IFAMA 2024 conference in Almeria, Spain & the AAEA 2024 conference in New Orleans. Thanks to Kate Phillips Connolly for editing.