The 10 (+2) innovations that will define the battlefield in the years to come, and that we must not neglect: 2018 version
Last year, I published in May an article that was a major success, and listed the 10 technological developments that would redefine the battlefield in the years to come. What about a year later?
This article is a google-translated version of a french article. However, google have probably done better than me, so sorry in advanced if in some parts, english language is not respected
1- Drones and Robots
While the focus was, until now, focused on aerial drones, whether long-endurance type, such as the American Reaper or the European EuroMale, or combat drone projects, such as the MQ-25 Stingray or the Franco-British SCAF, many drone programs not falling into these categories have publicly emerged this year. This is the case of the mini-UAV of the Russian T-14 Armata, naval drones developed by several European groups, including the VSR-700 project of Airbus and Naval Group, aerostatic drones developed by the Russians, or swarms drones, tested by several research programs around the world.
Military robots have also seen increased exposure, with several programs announced by the Pentagon, France, or China. When in Russia, she will present its first combat robot during the military parade of May 9, 2018.
If robotics is now integrated at all military levels, from recognition to logistics and combat, new applications of this technology are constantly appearing, and are linked to many technologies that will be treated in this file. The drones and robots, tomorrow, will be the indispensable accessories of the combatant, whether he is an infantryman, tank, pilot or sailor, and will extend his performances and modes of action. As such, it will probably be the cooperation with the drones, and more simply its control, which will occupy the engineers and the military in the years to come.
2- Rail Gun
The Rail-Gun is a cannon that uses electromagnetic energy to propel the projectile, not the energy generated by an explosion. This technology makes it possible to accelerate the projectile longer and faster in the barrel, and thus to increase very significantly the initial speed of the one, and therefore its range. Thus, it is estimated that the rail-gun will be able to fire projectiles at more mach7, for a range of up to 400 km. In addition, the absence of powder makes shooting particularly economical, while saving space and enhancing the safety of ships or vehicles implementing it.
The United States, which had previously been in the lead on the subject of the Rail Guns, publicly at least, announced in autumn 2017 the reduction of investments in their research programs, due to a lack of applicability of technology. Since then, several countries have taken the opportunity to highlight progress made by their own programs. This is the case of France and Germany, which jointly designed a prototype autonomous and mobile gun rail, presented this winter.
But it is China that surprised all observers, starting a test phase of a gun presented as a Rail Gun and mounted on a landing ship. In addition, it seems that the dimensions of the turret tested, as well as the electrical production capacities required for the operation of this gun, are consistent with what can provide the new Type 055 heavy destroyers of 13,000 tons, the first units will be delivered next year to the Chinese Navy. If the prototype tests are conclusive, we can expect to see the first Chinese destroyers equipped with this gun join the fleet from 2023-2025, giving China a significant advantage over other world navies, including the US Navy, whose authority is further challenged by the new Chinese units.
3- Networks, data fusion and flow transmission
The battlefield of tomorrow that is emerging is characterized by a marked duality between the means of action on the one hand, and the information of the other. The latter is based on a dynamic chain, starting from sensors of all shapes, the transmission of data, and their processing in order to extract a synthetic view suitable for decision making, whether human or assisted. This stream is characterized by its scalar and intricate size, which requires large data processing capabilities. These depend, as for drones, related technological developments, such as Artificial Intelligence, or energy production, data fusion equipment being energy hungry.
If all armies in the world seek these abilities, many programs have also been launched to prevent a potential opponent to enjoy on the battlefield, using the weak point of this chain, the data transmission. Thus, during the Russian exercise Zapad-2017 held in Belarus and at the borders of the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, many jamming systems were used, capable of rendering inoperative many signals, whether radio, GMS or GPS. The problem has evolved, for a year, a search for a maximum number of sensors and the largest processing capacity, to secure data flows, see the ability to work in degraded mode, without networks.
4- Passive detection
Traditional radars suffer from an important weakness: they can be detected far beyond their detection ranges, even for non-stealth aircraft or ships. In addition, if it is a minimum equipped with electronic warfare, a ship or a plane knows perfectly whether it is, or not detected.
That's why, often, aircraft and aircraft evolve without activating their radars. However, they are not necessarily blind, because there are several technologies to detect without being detected in return is passive detection.
These technologies are of 3 types (today):
- Electro-optical detection: what's more effective and discreet than sight to spot an opponent? This is the reason why many electro-optical equipment, working on a broad spectrum of light, have emerged, and today equip aircraft, helicopters, ships and armoured vehicles.
- Wiretapping, often identified by the acronym ESM, seeks to identify surrounding electromagnetic radiation, to categorize and process it.
- Passive radars that use electromagnetic radiation of human origin, such as those emitted by the GSM network, or TNT, to detect and classify targets.
These 3 devices have the particularity of being insensitive to stealth such as that used by the F-35 or Su-57. However, like modern naval combat, whether on the surface or underwater, air combat is rapidly evolving towards an increasingly rare use of radiation-emitting equipment, such as radars, or transmissions. Passive detection technologies thus become, over time, strategic technologies, in the same way as radar technologies.
5- Artificial intelligence
If a theme has focused the attention of the Defence universe for a year, it is the artificial intelligence. And the announcements have followed one another, with a large national plan in France, massive investments in the United States, China, which is constantly developing its capabilities in this area, and Russia, more discreet, but whose recent announcements deterrence armaments demonstrate its investments in the field.
And for good reason, AI appears to be the technological node that federates a large part of the current technological evolutions of Defence, to the point of constituting, on its own, a rupture so important that it can be qualified as "change of age As well as the arrival of electronics, the combustion engine, or more upstream of metallurgy.
Indeed, AI is essential to the evolution of drones and robotics, to data fusion, to passive detection, to hard / soft kill devices, or to the control of hypersonic weapons, it alone being able to process the mass of colossal information generated by these new technological developments, and it alone can analyse and react quickly enough to follow the acceleration of the battlefield. In fact, the global geopolitical map will gradually be redrawn, at least in part, depending on the level of control by states of this strategic technology, which is essential for the future of Defence systems.
6- Sources and energy storage
Issues of energy production and storage have increased over the past year, with the subject appearing more and more essential in the design of modern weapon systems. Thus, the issue of energy production is one of the key points of future naval programs, under design, whether in the United States for the replacement of the Ticonderoga, in China with the heavy destroyer Type055, or in Russia with the Lider nuclear destroyers. It is also the latter who will have taken the initiative this year, announcing blow to blow, a submarine drone nuclear propulsion program, capable of transoceanic crossings, known as Status-6, and a program, unconfirmed, nuclear-powered aerial drone. In both cases, the use of nuclear energy will have made it possible to considerably extend the autonomy of the systems, far beyond what can be offered by battery systems or using hydrocarbons.
7- Laser and directed energy weapons
While the laser has been used for decades by the military for precision strikes, its use as an autonomous weapon is much more recent, notwithstanding what can be seen in sci-fi films.
Several laser and / or directed energy weapons programs have reached a sufficient degree of maturity to be deployed operationally. This is the case of the MEHEL system, mounted on a Stryker armoured vehicle, and equipped with a 5 kw laser, which is beginning to be deployed, particularly in units positioned in Europe, to fight against drones and missiles. The US Navy has deployed a self-Defence laser against drones, missiles and small craft on Portland-class LPDs, while the US Air Force has been testing to ship Defence lasers more vulnerable fighters and planes, such as tankers, to protect themselves from air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles. Russia when it presented a self-propelled system in March 2018, in a video broadcast on youtube, without it really knows what would be use or power.
One of the main advantages of laser weapons is a very low cost of use, and the absence of constraints related to the carriage of ammunition. As long as there is energy, the device can fire. However, laser weapons also have constraints, such as sensitivity to cloudiness, the exposure time required to achieve the desired destructive thermal effect, or sensitivity to certain reflective paints.
However, given the benefits provided, particularly in terms of self-Defence against missiles and drones, the number of laser weapons used on the battlefield will increase.
8- Hyper-velocity
A weapon is said to be hypersonic when its speed exceeds Mach 5. In addition to the greater difficulties that exist in intercepting a missile or shell that is flying at this speed, hypersonic weapons also reduce detection, analysis, and reaction times, damaging equipment. and current procedures.
And it is undoubtedly Russia that has taken a certain advantage in this area, with two new weapons presented by President Putin during a pre-election televised speech:
- the Kinjal missile, derived from the Iskander missile, is dropped from a Mig31 and would reach the speed of mach7 for a range of 2000 km. This missile can carry nuclear or conventional charges, and no current anti-missile system is able to intercept it.
- The Avangard hypersonic atmospheric input glider, which is to equip the new SARMAT RS-28 ICBMs, which would carry a nuclear warhead at a speed exceeding Mach 20 while keeping manoeuvrability until impact.
China has also conducted tests of a hypersonic glider Wu-14, but has not provided much information on the subject.
The West has been a little bit blown away by the Russian and Chinese advances, and many programs have been announced this year, whether by the Pentagon, or in Europe, where France has launched two hypersonic programs:
- ASN4G to replace ASMPA pre-strategic missile
- The new generation Franco-British FMAN / FMC cruise missile to replace the SCALP EG cruise missiles and Exocet MM40 anti-ship missiles
Be that as it may, hypersonic technologies have become, since the Russian announcement, a major concern of the staffs, just like the Artificial Intelligence.
9- Self-protection devices Hard-Kill / Soft-Kill
Hard-Kill and Soft-Kill devices are designed to protect ships, tanks and aircraft against missiles and shells. Armour has become less and less efficient in the face of new technologies such as double hollow charges, arrow shells, or hypersonic weapons, engineers have developed several solutions to prevent a threat from reaching its target (Soft-Kill), or to destroy this threat (Hard-Kill). In naval warfare, soft-kill is represented by jamming devices and decoy launchers, while hard-kill is represented by CIWS systems such as Phalanx.
Two examples characterize future progress in active protection:
- The self-protection system of the new Russian T-14 tank, including electromagnetic and laser jamming devices, smoke launchers, and active protection systems to intercept missiles, rockets and shells aimed at the armoured vehicle, all controlled by a detection system based on 4 small AESA radar antennas.
- Aircraft self-protection systems such as the one developed by Raytheon, which integrates EM and IR lures, radar jammers, and a laser intended to destroy incoming missiles.
While the missiles are more and more efficient and numerous, the survivability of heavy equipment will depend more and more on their hard-kill and soft-kill equipment, an area in which the French armies are far from being ahead of the rest. great world nations.
10- Bionics
Bionics is a collection of technologies designed to improve the performance of the human body. While bionics has a great deal to communicate about progress in disability compensation, it is also an important field of investigation for Defence technologies, and there is a lot of research going on to improve the performance of soldiers, sailors and pilots. .
In this area, the American DARPA has long been in the spotlight, with videos of exoskeletons and fully connected soldiers of the TALOS system, long announced to come into service in 2018, and which now seems to be postponed, see replaced by a more efficient system. But once again, China and Russia seem to be taking the lead in the field of military enforcement today.
Thus, China presented an exoskeleton allowing the reduction of 80% of the carried weight felt by a soldier, with a range of almost 20 km, at a speed of 5 km / h. As for Russia, she presented the Ratnik-3 evolution of her integrated combat gear, consisting of a connected helmet, an armour system and an exoskeleton, which will come into service from 2022.
Of all the topics covered, bionics is today the most promising, both from the military and civil point of view, but also the most distant, although research in the field is advancing rapidly, and that it might well be that things are suddenly racing, as is the case today with hypersonic weapons.
11- Advanced stealth
Stealth is not a new subject. However, this technology is now reaching a point of maturity that allows a glimpse of a reasoned and non-binding application of these paradigms. If, for many years, the fantasy of the plane or the invisible ship blew ink and add 0 to the prices of weapons systems, the progress of low-frequency radars, passive radars and quantum radar tend to reduce this perception quickly. Finish the idea of the F-35 flying peacefully over the battlefield without being worried by the surface-to-air missiles and the enemy aircraft. However, stealth continues to bring benefits that, no longer magical, are no less important.
Stealth itself has evolved significantly in recent years, building on the combined use of passive radar reduction techniques, including special coatings and adapted forms, such as flying kites, and advanced technologies. active jamming powerful, always in order to be detected as late as possible. Thus, many stealth combat drone programs are in progress, whether in the United States with the MQ-25 Stingray, in Europe with the Franco-British combat drone program, and in China, which is developing no less of 5 stealth combat drones simultaneously.
One thing is certain; stealth is a very dynamic technology, where progress in both stealth and detection is very fast, as shown by the low operational life of the F-117. Stealth constraints must not impair the overall performance of a device, nor increase its price excessively, because the advantage provided will have a duration of operational efficiency much lower than the expected life of the aircraft him even.
12- Innovation and Defence Economy
The last point of this article is not a technology per se, but is nonetheless a strategic innovation topic for Defence: the Defence innovation itself, and consequently the Defence economy.
It will not have escaped anyone that the last 30 years have represented a rather atypical period in Defence, with a very significant slowdown in investments and programs themselves. For the first time since the advent of the industrial age, Defence equipment continued to be used for 30, 40, sometimes 50 years. It remains today in Japan and Turkey F4 Phantom whose first flight back in 1954. Many countries still use tanks M60 or T64 more than 50 years old. Even countries with strong economies have slowed considerably both research and investment in equipment.
This slowdown has led to the extension of the expected life of the programs, and it is not uncommon today to announce that an aircraft is designed to equip forces for 40 or 50 years. However, if this pace was consistent from 2010 to 2015, the current technological runaway makes it much more problematic. When reading this article, who can believe that we can have sufficient visibility of what will be the technological environment in 20 years from today?
It is therefore necessary to make a profound change in the paradigms that shape the design of Defence programs, with shorter development periods, smaller technology vouchers, and reduced operational life of "first tier" equipment. This is precisely what some countries, such as Russia, and especially China, do.
The steering of the innovation of the technologies of Defence is also called to evolved, to return to a more dynamic model, resting on the one hand on the one hand frequent technological demonstrators advancing the experimentation and the reliability of the technologies, and programs of equipment that integrates these technologies without taking intrinsic risks.
Of course, this mode of operation requires additional funds, and therefore the need to innovate also in the field of defence economics, so as to have an effective and extensive vision of economic relations between the Defence ecosystem, the State and the national economy, so that it can design optimized models with the minimum budget footprint to have an effective budget that meets the needs, while giving innovation and the Defence industry its role as a technological and economic driver. they have lost in the last 30 years.
Conclusion
What is striking when one lists the announcements and the technological evolutions of Defence since one year, it is the driving role that China and Russia play, whereas the West shows an obvious inertia. This point has not escaped General Mattis, who is leading a small revolution in the Pentagon to try to put the research, the industry and the US armies in a dynamic enough to not be left behind by his potential opponents, may they are now identified as such. And among the first measures announced by the Secretary of Defence, there is the shortening of Defence programs.
As such, are the Franco-German announcements concerning the SCAF program, the MAWS or the CIFS (for future combat aircraft, ASW aircraft of the future, and tank of the future) are they still not too marked by a geopolitical situation? and technology that no longer exists, when it was possible to design a plane for 20 years and a tank for 10 years?
Fabrice Wolf