The #1 Skill For Leaders To Master And How to Master It With Frameworks, Examples, And Action Items

This post first appeared for premium subscribers of Great Leadership on Substack and was published on September 8, 2023. If you want to get access to exclusive articles like this one and weekly 5 min leadership tips, then make sure to become a premium subscriber and get all of my best content and latest thinking delivered to your inbox. Learn more and sign up here. Premium subscribers get content like this every week.

A few years ago I wrote, The Future Leader, where I talked to over 140 CEOs around the world. I wanted to understand the most important mindsets and skills that current and aspiring leaders need to master in the rapidly changing world of work that we are all a part of. There are 4 mindsets and 5 skills.

I know there are lots of surveys conducted which ask thousands of employees what the most important skills are, but I wanted to go straight to the CEOs since they are the ones leading the companies.

I was surprised that the #1 skill by far that these CEOs identified as being most crucial for leaders, is the skill of the futurist.

If you go on LinkedIn you will find lots of people who stick “futurist” in their title. It sounds cool but 99.999% of the time you see that title it’s complete bullsh*t. Few people realize that you can actually get a professional certification in foresight (which is what I received at the University of Houston) and even a masters degree.

The field of foresight utilizes frameworks, critical thinking prompts, scenarios, and models to help you think about the future.

What does thinking like a futurist actually mean?

It’s not about predicting the future, it’s about helping make sure that you aren’t surprised by what the future might bring. I always use the analogy of chess.

When playing chess, top players are always thinking several moves ahead, they can’t predict what their opponent is going to do, but they can try to anticipate potential moves and then plan for their response. Thinking like a futurist is similar.

There are several concepts and models that futurists use but I have found that the cone of possibilities is the most practical, applicable, and fun.

We used to live and work in a more linear world where the pace of change was gradual and where things were more predictable. Today we see increasing complexity, more change and an accelerated rate of change, instability, greater risk, and reduced trust.

This means that we can’t just plan for one scenario or outcome. We need to be agile, to be able to pivot, and to think in terms of scenarios and options.

Again, this is the #1 skill for leaders. In the rest of the article for paid subscribers only, I’ll walk through the cone of possibilities, give a real-example of how to use it, along with action items, triggers, and exercises that you can use, as well as ongoing strategies to get you practicing that “futurist” mindset.

If you’re a paid subscriber you can also leave a comment on this post with your own scenarios and we can review them.

Remember, that the goal of thinking like a futurist is about imagining scenarios and possibilities by paying attention to trends.

For example, when you look at the rise of electric cars, a futurist wouldn’t just think that they are going to become popular but would instead look at how this trend will reshape cities, impact industries like oil and gas, and potentially influence global politics.

A few years ago I spoke at an event for Alicorp, one of the largest companies in Peru, their CEO Alfredo Perez told me:

The fact is that adapting to change is not enough; we need to lead change and create the future. Adapting is keeping your head above water, but leading and creating is sailing on top of it.

The best way for you to start thinking like a futurist is by using the cone of possibilities.

The cone represents a range of potential futures, from the most probable to the wildly speculative.

For leaders, this cone provides a structured way to think about the future, anticipate various scenarios, and plan accordingly. There are a few ways you can think about the sections of the cone. You can see how I broke them down above but the more common way that is taught is as follows:

• Probable Future: The central part of the cone represents the most likely outcomes based on current trends and data.
• Plausible Future: As we move outward, these scenarios are possible but less certain. They're based on potential shifts in current trends.
• Possible Future: Further out, these scenarios might seem unlikely right now but could occur if certain conditions change.
• Preposterous Future: The outer edges of the cone represent wild, speculative scenarios. While they seem far-fetched, they challenge our assumptions and spark creativity.

A structure we can use to think through scenarios can be as follows:

• Imagine various scenarios
• Collect information and insights
• Horizon scan (triggers/indicators)
• Create an action plan

Leadership is evolving rapidly—are you keeping up? Each year, I engage with and analyze the insights of leading executives from companies like Microsoft, IBM, and Virgin Group, uncovering the strategies that drive their success. This exclusive PDF distills the top five leadership hacks used by these world-renowned leaders. Discover what sets these leaders apart and how you can apply their breakthrough tactics to elevate your leadership in 2024 and beyond.

Let’s get back to out electric vehicle example and walk through this entire process in a simplified form, assuming that you are in the automotive industry.

1. Probable Future: Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• Info and Insights: Current trends show increasing sales of EVs, advancements in battery technology, and growing environmental concerns which can lead to a reduction in oil production and use.
• Horizon Scan: Governments are offering incentives for EV buyers, major automotive companies announcing plans to phase out gasoline cars and focus on electric vehicles (Mercedes as an example), and improvements in charging infrastructure, especially in places like California.
• Action Plan:

-Invest in R&D for EV technology.

-Collaborate with battery manufacturers to ensure a steady supply and technological advancements.

-Launch marketing campaigns highlighting the environmental benefits of EVs.

2. Plausible Future: Dominance of Autonomous Vehicles

• Info and Insights: Research indicates advancements in AI and machine learning, successful tests of autonomous vehicles, and potential benefits like reduced traffic accidents.
• Horizon Scan: Regulatory approvals for autonomous vehicles, significant investments by tech giants in autonomous technology, public acceptance of driverless cars, and a potential reduction in traditional driving jobs.
• Action Plan:

-Partner with tech companies specializing in AI and machine learning.

-Invest in public awareness campaigns to educate consumers about the safety and benefits of autonomous vehicles.

-Develop infrastructure within vehicles to support autonomous features.

-Collaborate with city planners.

3. Possible Future: Flying Cars

• Info and Insights: Some companies have showcased prototypes (for example in Dubai), but widespread adoption is still a distant reality due to technological, regulatory, and safety challenges.
• Horizon Scan: Breakthroughs in lightweight materials or propulsion technology, regulatory frameworks being discussed for aerial commuting, emergence of drone capabilities, and successful pilot programs in select cities.
• Action Plan:

-Establish a dedicated R&D team to explore the feasibility and potential of flying cars and transportation.

-Collaborate with aerospace experts and institutions.

-Engage with regulatory bodies to understand and influence potential frameworks.

-Explore potential hybrid options for vehicles that can operate both on land and in the sky.

4. Preposterous Future: Teleportation Replacing Traditional Transportation

• Info and Insights: Teleportation is currently pure science fiction and not currently grounded in scientific reality. However, exploring such a scenario can spark creativity and lead to unexpected innovations.
• Horizon Scan: Major breakthroughs in quantum physics, successful teleportation of larger molecules in lab settings, and significant investments in teleportation research by tech billionaires.
• Action Plan:

-While direct investment in teleportation might be premature, leaders can allocate a small budget for blue-sky research projects or skunk works (check Raytheon Skunkworks).

-Foster a culture of innovation where such "out there" ideas are discussed and explored without judgment.

-Stay connected with leading scientific institutions and researchers to stay updated on any groundbreaking discoveries.

This is a high-level framework that you can use for strategic business decisions, planning, and even general critical thinking exercises.

During the training I went through, this framework was expanded considerably to include things like economic, social, environmental, political, technological, etc variables and had us expand on both opportunities and challenges. You can also revisit and revise these various scenarios on a regular basis.

You might be a healthcare company looking at the future of medicine, an travel company looking at the future of vacations, or an agriculture company looking at the future of meat production. Thinking like a futurist is a very useful technique you can implement.

Some simple and ongoing things you can implement inside of your organization to help develop this mindset include:

• Encourage employees to write in a curiosity journal where they can just brainstorm, ask questions, or pinpoint specific trends they are paying attention to.
• Host a monthly “what if” session where employees can come together and share ideas around specific prompts. I used to do something similar in a Facebook group I use to have called “The future if.”
• Create diverse teams where employees have different perspectives, points of views, and skills. This will ensure that whenever you are brainstorming potential futures that you will get varying ideas.
• Experiment with backcasting. This involves you imagining it’s a future date (say 2035) and that you have hit all of your goals and projections. Work backwards from there to imagine what you had to do to get there and the milestones you had to hit along the way.

Foresight is about being proactive and just just reactive. It’s about trying to identify the future you want to live in and then taking steps to create that future. Leaders who embed foresight into their strategy not only navigate the future with confidence but also shape it.

By integrating these steps and exercises, leaders can ensure they're always a step ahead, ready to turn challenges into opportunities. The skill of the futurist is the #1 skill for current and aspiring leaders, and for good reason.

In an era marked by uncertainty and volatility, the ability to think ahead, anticipate change, and act proactively is what differentiates successful leaders from the rest.

Leadership is evolving rapidly—are you keeping up? Each year, I engage with and analyze the insights of leading executives from companies like Microsoft, IBM, and Virgin Group, uncovering the strategies that drive their success. This exclusive PDF distills the top five leadership hacks used by these world-renowned leaders. Discover what sets these leaders apart and how you can apply their breakthrough tactics to elevate your leadership in 2024 and beyond.