#1 Rates Take Centre Stage
Highlights
Economic Calendar
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Trump's tax cuts and tariffs threaten to drive yields higher. 10y rose to more than 4.6% (1pp more than in Sep 2024). 2y more muted, anchored by Fed policy rate. Fed expected to hold rates until Jun, cutting by 50bps in 2H 2025. Weaker-than-expected payroll numbers could see some bond price rebound and raise question on a Mar Fed cut. Federal deficit sits at $28 trillion (up from $17 trillion in end 2019), exceeding 6% of GDP in 2025. Concerns regarding US ability to repay debt could deter investors.
US high-grade bond had the biggest day of issuance since early Sep as risk premiums stay tightest since 2000. Factors including reduced index duration and improving quality, the tendency for price of discounted bonds to rise as they come closer to repayment and a more diversified markets are trends to keep spreads tight.
Gold remains bullish outlook, after a 27% surge in 2024 to $2,800/oz. Driven by central bank purchases in China and EM, Fed cuts and geopolitical tensions. Gold remain attractive to hedge against trade relations deterioration under Trump.
Yen slid to weakest since Jul 2024. Driven by drop in retails and investors' outflow. Increasing talk surrounding a Jan rate hike, with overnight index swaps showing 48% of rate hike in Jan. A key level for authorities is at 158. Finance minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated that BOJ will take "appropriate action" if there are excessive movements in the currency market. The US jobs data on Friday could weaken the yen if it proves stronger than expected and pushes US rate cut expectations further back.
Aramco raised crude prices for asian buyers by 60c (10c forecasted by Bloomberg). Last month, OPEC+ agreed to postpone production hike by 3 months to Apr, following to previous delays.