1 Oct 24, Iran Launches a Missile Strike at Israel: What Next?
The Islamic Republic's retaliatory operation against Israel has officially concluded; however, he warned that any counter-response by the Israeli regime would provoke an even more intense reaction from Tehran.
(Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, Tehran Times, 2nd October 2024)
Iran Launches a Missile Strike at Israel
Introduction
The credibility of the Islamic Republic of Iran and their proxies are now being bought into question. Their inability and lack of response in retaliation against Israel for the death of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on the 31st July 2024 led to humiliation. All the claims of crushing their enemy and bragging on how they were going to strike back led to nothing but noise in an empty vessel. The quietness and their reluctance to strike back regarding the incident led to their shame.
On the 13th April 2024 Iran responded to the attack on its consulate in Damascus which among others killed two high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) figures. Iran’s response was a failure as none of the unmanned aerial weapons reached their target. Iran prides itself on its missile, drone and rocket armoury, its capabilities and ability to attack anywhere with precision. Iran called the operation, “Truthful Promise.”
Israel retaliated on the 19th April 2024, six days after Iran launched its retaliatory attack and was successful in striking one of Iran’s air defence systems not far from one of their prized nuclear locations, Isfahan. Penetrating Iranian air space undetected in order to nullify the weapon. Iran denied the violation but at the same time was made aware of Israel’s capability to respond to any attack by the Islamic Republic.
The Tehran government and the IRGC, realise that a failed or underwhelming attack would further embarrass the regime and weaken its regional standing.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Stand Off Weapons Attack on the State of Israel
On the 1st October 2024 the Islamic Republic of Iran launched a missile strike directly at the State of Israel. The attack was in response for various assassination of Iranians and their proxy allies. The attack consisted of between 180 – 200 ballistic missiles.
Iran claimed that Israel assassinated Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31st July 2024. In its massive airstrikes on Beirut, Lebanon, on the 27th September 2024 Israel also assassinated Iranian Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who acted as Iranian military advisor in Lebanon, and the announcement of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who was killed on the 28th September 2024.
The IRGC declared that about 90 percent of their missiles had hit their designated targets. It added that the IRGC used the hypersonic Fatah missiles in the attacks.
Iran claimed that they had targeted the Israeli Nevtim air base that was the home to Israel’s F-35 fighter aircraft. The IRGC said the F-15 aircraft were used in killing Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian military advisor to Lebanon Brigadier General Abbas Nilforooshan in Beirut and had flown from that airfield.
Even before the dust had settled on the attack Iran was quick to confirm in a statement issued by Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, the Islamic Republic emphasized that its recent actions against Israel were a justified and measured response to the "terrorist actions" by the Zionist regime.
The mission further cautioned that any retaliatory measures from Israel would be met with a "devastating response." Iran made it clear that continued aggression would escalate the conflict significantly.
Additionally, the statement urged regional countries and supporters of Israel to reconsider their ties with the Zionist regime, warning them to distance themselves from its actions for they too may come under attack.
A senior Iranian official said the order to launch missiles at Israel had been made by the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was in a secure location for his own safety. The leader was moved there after the death of the Hezbollah leader as a safety precaution should Israel attempt to assassinate him.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran has exercised its legitimate rights to carry out the Tuesday evening’s retaliatory missile attack against the Israeli targets with the purpose of ensuring regional security, cautioning the enemy to avoid a clash with Iran. The recently elected president went on to say, “a decisive response has been given to the Zionist regime’s acts of aggression in accordance with Iran’s legitimate rights and with the purpose of ensuring peace and security for Iran and the region.”
“This measure was meant to defend the Iranian interests and individuals.” Pezeshkian warned Israel, “This was only a section of our capabilities. Do not start a clash with Iran,”
Ironically the only death in the retaliatory strike against Israel was that of a Palestinian who the Islamic Republic claim to stand for. The sole fatality of the Iranian attack was a Palestinian man in the West Bank city of Jericho who was killed by falling shrapnel. “A Palestinian worker in Jericho was killed when pieces of a rocket fell from the sky and hit him,” Jericho Governor Hussein Hamayel told the Agence France-Presse news agency.
Self-Restraint
The Islamic Republic of Iran put the reason for not engaging in any retaliation since the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on the 31st July 2024 was that they were exercising “restraint.”
In a lengthy press conference with Western media in New York at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September 2024, Pezeshkian spelled it out for anyone who had not already noticed the extent to which Iran has exercised restraint in the face of repeated provocation.
“What Israel has done in the region and what Israel tried with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran was to drag us into a regional war,” he said. “We have exercised restraint so far, but we reserve the right to defend ourselves at a specific time and place with specific methods.”
But he added: “We do not wish to be the cause of instability in the region.”
Again, Iran takes the perverse pleasure of making out that everyone in the region is the subject of aggression brought on by Israel, they being the aggressor. Whereas Iran and the others seeking out to be the victim is the most disruptive in West Asia. The ploy being that Iran was using western media and the UNSC as a conduit to claim that they, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthi’s and the PIJ were the victim and Israel as the aggressor.
“Iran is playing its usual mind games,” said Sir John Jenkins, a former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and consul-general in Jerusalem. “If Israel degrades Hezbollah’s capabilities to the extent that it poses no credible threat to Israel, or if it looks as if that is achievable, then Iran may think again. But it wants to avoid the choice. Hence this blackly comic diplomatic farce.”
Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian whilst addressing the UN General Assembly in New York said, “what Israel has done in the region and what Israel tried with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran was to drag us into a regional war,” he said. “We have exercised restraint so far, but we reserve the right to defend ourselves at a specific time and place with specific methods.” But, he added: “We do not wish to be the cause of instability in the region.” The reality was that he was too late for instability and forgot to mention that the real reason for the instability is Iran.
They do not want to be the cause of instability in the Middle East whereas in reality they are already the cause of for instability in the Middle East.
The State of Israel
Even before Israel had finished their Post Attack Recovery (PAR) report on the damage caused by the Iranian missile attack Iran was quick to post, that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) gave details of the operation ‘True Promise 2’, saying 90 percent of the Iranian missiles fired on Tuesday evening (01 Oct 24) had successfully hit the targets, including the “strategic Israeli centres” in the occupied territories.
In a second statement released a few hours after a massive missile strike on the Zionist regime, the IRGC said on Tuesday night that “strategic centres” inside the occupied territories have been targeted by the Iranian homegrown missiles.
It said a number of Israeli air and radar bases and the centres involved in plotting assassination attacks on the leaders of resistance, specifically on Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, Lebanese Hezbollah leader Seyed Hassan Nasrallah, and the military commanders of Hezbollah, the IRGC and the Islamic Resistance of Palestine have been hit in the operation True Promise 2.
They continued. Despite the fact that the target zone was being protected with a large number of the most advanced air defence systems, 90 percent of the projectiles have successfully hit the targets, the IRGC said, noting that the Zionist regime has been traumatized by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s intelligence and operational dominance.
According to Israeli officials, Iran had launched 181 missiles at Israel. A large number of them had been intercepted. The IDF said there were “isolated” impacts in central Israel and several more impacts in southern Israel. It emphasized that there was no damage to the “competence” of the Israeli Air Force in the attack, and said the IAF’s planes, air defences, and air traffic control were operating normally. Contradicting Iranian claims and propaganda
The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the attack had failed and that Iran had made a serious mistake and vowed that Iran would pay for it.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, however, said that if Israel retaliated Tehran’s response would be “more crushing and ruinous.” Same words used in other attacks just a different occasion.
A statement from a group calling itself the Coordination Committee for the Iraqi Resistance also warned Israel against using Iraqi airspace to retaliate against Iran, saying “all American bases and interests in Iraq and the region will be our target.”
The foreign minister of Iran Abbas Araqchi warned third parties to avoid interference in the conflict following Tehran’s missile attack against Israeli targets in revenge for the assassination of resistance leaders and IRGC forces. Third party meaning the United States which has a significant military presence in the area.
Araqchi made it clear that Iran has only exercised its right to legitimate self-defence in conformity with the UN Charter Article 51[1] and has solely targeted the military and security bases of the Zionist regime.
In a secure location the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, Tehran had made a “big mistake tonight” and vowed that “it will pay for it.” The strike on Israel had “failed,” he said, and was “thwarted thanks to Israel’s air defence system, which is the most advanced in the world.” Netanyahu took the opportunity of thanking those who had assisted Israel during the attack. He also called for “the forces of light in the world” to unite against Tehran, the premier urged them to “stand by Israel.” “The choice has never been clearer between tyranny and freedom, between blessing and curse,” he said.
Iran did not give the United States prior notice of its attack on Israel as it had claimed to have done in the previous April 2024 attack, Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York said.
The United States condemned the attack. The United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan condemned Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel claiming it was a significant escalation, adding Israel appeared to have defeated the attack without loss of life.
“This is a significant escalation by Iran, a significant event, and it is equally significant that we were able to step up with Israel and create a situation in which no one was killed in this attack in Israel,” the United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House.
“We have made clear that there will be consequences, severe consequences, for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” he said.
After Ismail Haniyeh Death
On the 16th September 2024 Israel announced that it had a new ‘war objective’ and that was to make the border with Lebanon safe for residents to return. Throughout the conflict with Hamas, Israel made it clear that they wanted people to return to their homes and live in safety. Diplomatic efforts failed which led Israel to conduct operations against Hezbollah.
On the 17th September 2024 Israel initiated an attack on Hezbollah by remotely exploding 3000 Hezbollah communication devices, pagers, and the following day remotely detonating explosive in numerous hand-held radio sets.
The Assassination of Hassan Nasrallah was the next big shock to the Iranian regime. Also present was an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan who was named by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as the “IRGC’s advisor in Lebanon.”
Abbas Nilforoushan was an Iranian brigadier general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who served as the Deputy of Operations for the IRGC.
The Deputy Operations Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces has several key responsibilities, including:
Operational Planning and Execution: Overseeing the planning and execution of military operations. This includes coordinating with various units and ensuring that operations align with strategic objectives.
Training and Readiness: Ensuring that troops are well-trained and ready for deployment. This involves organizing training exercises and drills to maintain high levels of preparedness.
Intelligence and Reconnaissance: Gathering and analysing intelligence to inform on operational decisions. This includes overseeing reconnaissance missions and ensuring that accurate information is available for planning.
Logistics and Support: Managing the logistics and support systems necessary for operations. This includes ensuring that troops have the necessary supplies, equipment, and support to carry out their operations.
Coordination with Other Forces: Working closely with other branches of the IRGC and Iran’s proxies to ensure coordinated efforts in defence and security operations.
These responsibilities are crucial for maintaining the effectiveness and readiness of the IRGC Ground Forces in fulfilling their mission to defend Iran’s revolutionary regime, proxies and national interests.
The presence of such a high-ranking IRGC figure in the same meeting as Hassan Nasrallah the secretary-general of Hezbollah would indicate a high-level of cooperation between the Iran backed terrorist group and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Possibly the Iranian general either directing or advising the Hezbollah leadership on which paths to take against Israel
To Iran the killing of Nilforoushan was the straw that broke the camel’s back. They needed to do something or face humiliation as they had done over the failed and humiliated 13th April 2024 attack on Israel for the deaths of eight of its IRGC officers at Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria.
The Republic of Lebanon
On 1st October 2024, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in an escalation of the ongoing Israel–Hezbollah conflict, a spillover of the Israel–Hamas war.
The current incursion into Lebanon by Israel is something that neither said they wanted, but in reality, it is the last-ditch effort by Israel to enable its citizens to move back into their homes in the north of Israel.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati described the situation as “one of the most dangerous phases” in Lebanon’s history, stressing the need to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
In Lebanon, reactions to the latest escalation were divided. Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making, or was it?
On the 30th September 2024 in a Reuters report Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikat said the Lebanese government is ready to fully implement a UN resolution that had aimed to end Hezbollah's armed presence south of the Litani River as part of an agreement to stop war with Israel. Why all of a sudden do the Lebanese want to implement the 1701 Resolution? How long would it take to enforce the resolution and how would it be enforced?
Mikat’s sudden request for a ceasefire and an implementation of a resolution was his quick way of stopping a war that would devastate the country even more than it already is with its corrupt politics.
But this would only be half of the resolution as the other half was to have Hezbollah lay down their weapons and disarm which was not likely to happen.
Armed, funded and indoctrinated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah was created to forge ahead with the Islamic Republic’s regional ambitions, expand its influence, and export its ideology which includes the extermination of Israel.
The IRGC official emphasized the importance of this policy, asserting that the elimination of Israel is a longstanding commitment of Iran's Islamic government.
The Quds Force – the arm of the Iranian military responsible for conducting proxy warfare – reasserted its primary mission: the elimination of Israel. The IRGC official emphasized the importance of this policy, asserting that the elimination of Israel is a longstanding commitment of Iran's Islamic government – with the Quds Force having been created by the Supreme Leader in pursuit of that goal.
Yadollah Javani, a high-ranking military figure and political deputy of the IRGC stated, "The policy of the Islamic Republic is the eradication of the existence of the Zionist regime. The Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consider this a commitment. The Leader, in continuation of Imam Khomeini, has followed this policy, creating a force called the Quds Force, whose mission is clear.”
Mikati said Lebanon was ready to fully implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and deploy the army south of the river, which lies about 30 km (around 20 miles) from Lebanon's southern border.
Lebanon does not and cannot afford to have a war. The Israeli’s know this. The question here is why has it taken 18 years to comply with the United Nations Resolution 1701? Even if a ceasefire was implemented between Hezbollah, Iran and Israel how long would it take to execute the resolution?
It would never happen.
In April 2024 French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné visited Lebanon in an effort to attempt a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Lebanon border. That visit did not produce any results. Hezbollah has been launching missile, drone, and rocket attacks into Israel for many years, with significant escalations during periods of heightened conflict. The most recent surge in attacks began on the 8th October 2023, coinciding with the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Since then, there have been almost daily exchanges of fire across the Israel-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah plays a significant and multifaceted role in Lebanese politics. Hezbollah has been a fixture in the Lebanese Parliament since 1992, when it first won seats. Over the years, it has maintained a strong presence, often forming alliances with other political parties.
Since 2005, Hezbollah has held cabinet positions, allowing it to influence key government decisions. This participation marked its integration into mainstream Lebanese politics.
Hezbollah operates extensive social services, including hospitals, schools, and welfare organizations, particularly in Shiite-majority areas. This has bolstered its support base and reputation as a "state within a state". Despite being a political party, Hezbollah retains a powerful armed wing. This military capability gives it significant leverage in both domestic and regional politics.
Hezbollah has formed strategic alliances with various political factions in Lebanon, which has helped it maintain influence and navigate the country’s complex sectarian political landscape. Hezbollah’s dual role as both a political and military entity allows it to exert considerable influence in Lebanon, shaping the country’s policies and its stance on regional issues.
On the 15th May 2022 Lebanon held a General Election. Hezbollah and their allies lost their parliamentary majority but still won the Parliament speaker election. They may have lost their majority but Hezbollah still retained a strong presence in the Lebanese parliament making it very difficult to implement UN Resolution 1701.
With diplomacy failing, the lack of implementing the United Nations resolution dating back to 2006, Hezbollah attacks on the north of Israel displacing approximately 60,000 Israelis and a constant barrage of missiles, rockets and drones, in reality the only step left was for Israel to take matters into its own hands after a great deal of patience which it has lost is now forcibly pushing Hezbollah back to the agreed withdrawal line.
The Israeli government does not want to wait for a ceasefire to be put into place and allowing the slow wheels of the Lebanese government to attempt to implement a UN Resolution that should happened years ago. It would never happen because of the influence Hezbollah has in Lebanese politics.
If the Lebanese government did not want a war they should have complied with the United Nations in the past and not leave until Hezbollah had so much influence.
Israel wants to move Hezbollah back now to the Litani River which runs for approximately 110 miles. Much of the river flows from East to West and parallel to the border shared by Lebanon and Israel. By pushing Hezbollah back to the river, it will create a buffer zone between the two which it was designed to do. Unfortunately, Hezbollah does not want to withdrawal back to the river.
The Blue Line is a demarcation line dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights. It was published by the United Nations on 7 June 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel had fully withdrawn from Lebanon. It has been described as "temporary" and "not a border, but a “line of withdrawal”.
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
The major Iranian proxy Hezbollah with all its strength and credibility gained over the years is also being looked at for its integrity. Their leader along with many other of the group’s hierarchal command structure have been assassinated by Israel. Yet again high-raking Tehran government and military officials take to the podium declaring that their deaths will not go unpunished.
On the 28th September 2024 it was announced that the Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had been assassinated by Israeli forces It was also thought, at the time that the Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Quds Force Brigadier General Esmaeil Qaani had also been killed. Later it was believed to be untrue and the commander was, for the time being, safe and well.
In a statement Hezbollah said, the Lebanese resistance movement described Nasrallah as a “sacred martyr”, saying he was killed in a “treacherous Zionist airstrike on the southern suburbs” of Beirut.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei reminded Israel of its past defeats at the hands of Hezbollah, warning that their current aggression in Lebanon will ultimately result in regret. He predicted that the regime’s aggression will only strengthen the Resistance movement.
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Ayatollah Khamenei on the 29th September 2024 indicated that Hezbollah would lead the response to the assassination with only support from Iran. “All of the forces in the resistance stand by Hezbollah,” he said. “It will be Hezbollah, at the helm of the resistance forces, that will determine the fate of the region.” “Lebanon will make the aggressor and the evil enemy regretful,” Khamenei also vowed.
Iran stated that they will leave retaliation for the death of their leader to Hezbollah to seek their own revenge, showing that Iran for all its bragging is frightened about what would be inflicted on themselves if they conducted a response. Iran is leaving Hezbollah to struggle on their own as they have done with Hamas and the PIJ. True leadership from the front.
On the 30th September 2024 Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said, Iran will not deploy forces to Lebanon or Gaza to confront Israel. “There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He said and added, “We have not received any request in this regard from any side, on the contrary, we are informed and are sure that they do not need the help of our forces,” Kanani told reporters in Tehran.
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf had declared earlier, “We will not hesitate to go to any level in order to help the resistance.” This comment seemingly contradicting Kanani’s.
Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, the IRGC Quds Force commander declared that Iran will stand by Hezbollah in the continuation of Nasrallah's path and school until the conquest of Palestine and the liberation of Holy Quds. Not exactly strong words of support from their puppet master.
The infiltration of the Hezbollah security network by Israel after the initiation of the pager and hand-held radios will have repercussions in all the Iranian-backed terrorist groups.
The Hezbollah leader kept everything to a close-knit group of trusted people and still the Israeli intelligence services knew of his current moves before being buried under a pile of rubble sixty feet below ground after Israeli air-strikes. It is alleged that Nasrallah kept all his movements to a very small circle, but the Israeli knew of his schedules which led to his demise.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Funded Proxies
Iran’s proxies are slowly being made ineffective. Ansarullah (Houthis), are receiving limited supplies from Iran due to the amount of military naval vessels in the area supporting commercial traffic through the Red Sea.
In July2024, Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen fired a long-range drone at Tel Aviv, killing one man and wounding four others. The attack prompted Israel to carry out a major air strike on Houthi military targets near Yemen’s Hodeidah port, killing at least three people and wounding 87.
On the 15th September 2024 the Houthi’s claimed responsibility for a missile attack on Israel. The missile landed near Tel Aviv.
Israel retaliated against the group on the 29th September 2024 launching a retaliatory operation against the Iranian-backed terrorist group. The Houthi’s had launched an attack targeting the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plane which had just landed at Ben Gurion Airport.
The Prime Minster was returning from addressing the United Nations General Assembly explaining why Israel was in conflict and putting the record straight regarding their war in the Region and Iran’s role in that fight.
Over the past year, the Houthis have been operating under the direction and funding of Iran, and in cooperation with Iraqi militias in order to attack the State of Israel, undermine regional stability, and disrupt global shipping freedom of navigation. In September 2024 the Jerusalem Post wrote that the Houthis had recently established an office in Baghdad. The Houthis and Iraq Iranian-backed proxies use the term, joint military operation with the Islamic resistance of Iraq when describing some of their operations.
The Iraqi militias used by Iran are not as strong as other Iranian-backed militia groups operating in the Middle East. But often declare that they and the Houthis are conducting operations together against Israel. Mounted operations by Iraqi proxy groups? Yes. Effective? No.
This may change in the future depending on how much the Israeli’s demolish Hezbollah terrorist group. Iran already has a huge influence in Iraq. Sixty percent of the population is Shia Muslim and control the southern part of Iraq. Iran has also made in roads in the Iraqi political arena and also has a large standing with parts of the Iraqi military.
The Israelis are not going to stop with just inflicting pain on Iranian proxies, they aim to destroy them for good. The question is when they have been rendered ineffective what will Iran do to continue its revolutionary ideology of destroying Israel and domination of West Asia which includes the Middle East?
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United Nations
Iran will always make out that they and their proxies are the victims of any attack on them. Even when it comes to the United Nations Iran will make demands to those in attendance that everyone else is wrong and they are right. Iran claims that it was Israel that attacked Hamas in the Gaza Strip on the 7th October 2023 and that Hamas and the Palestinian Jihad (PIJ) terrorist groups are the victims. Portraying the Iranian’s and their proxies as victim and aggressor at the same time.
On the 29th September 2024 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed frustration at the UN Security Council’s failure to address the ongoing crises in the West Asia, particularly following the recent assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah. Nasrallah described Israel as a "malign, rootless, artificial and unstable" regime that is barely kept alive with American support, and God willing its life will not last long.”
Araqchi expressed his condolences over the loss of “the great Resistance commander.” He emphasized that Nasrallah's sacrifice would only serve to strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve. “While this martyrdom is indeed a significant loss, it will not undermine our resilience,” he stated.
The foreign minister highlighted that Israel's recent military actions in Gaza and Lebanon indicate that the Zionist regime has no future in the region and will remain in a state of perpetual conflict. “The natural outcome of these actions is the acceleration of the Zionist regime’s demise,” he added firmly.
Iran always uses the platform of the UN assembly to attempt a carrot and stick approach in an effort to advance and expand their revolutionary ideology. Should the UN not take their side to condemn and act against Israel then further turmoil will occur in the Middle East making the situation much worse. But if you do as Iran states then there will be no turmoil. Legally its known as blackmail.
Iran uses this to claim that its proxies are the victims of the Israeli war. Whereas in reality it is they who have attacked Israel and have done so for decades with the assistance and goading of those in power sitting in the Tehran government.
In a series of separate meetings with Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Volkan Bozkir, the President of the UN General Assembly, Abbas Araqchi,, raised alarms about the serious repercussions of the recent aggressive actions by the Israeli regime in Lebanon. He also warned of serious repercussions of Israeli aggression for regional peace. Carrot and stick, blackmail.
Hassan Nasrallah Successor
The potential successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council Hashem Safieddine, had been out of contact since the 4th October 2024 a Lebanese security source said on the 5th October, after an Israeli airstrike that was reported to have targeted him in Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters.
Israel carried out a large strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs late on the 3rd October that the American Axios news outlet cited three Israeli officials as saying targeted Hashem Safieddine in an underground bunker.
Worrying for Iran was the belief that Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, who travelled to Lebanon after the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike, had not been heard from since strikes on Beirut, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters. The last commander of the IRGC-Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, was killed at Baghdad International airport on the 3rd January 2020. Qaani was Soleimani’s replacement
On the 8th October 2024 Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said that it appears that the replacement of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been eliminated referring to Hashem Safieddine. No further details were given by the Israels nor by Hezbollah.
Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani
Iran’s Quds Force leader, Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani was in Lebanon after the death of Nasrallah and it appeared he had gone missing since last seen in Hezbollah's Tehran offices. Qaani had travelled to Lebanon after the killing of Nasrallah, and the Iranian authorities had not been able to contact him since the strike against Safieddine, who was widely expected to be the next Hezbollah chief. Hezbollah had made no comment on Safieddine.
A strike by Israeli forces on the 3rd October 2024 was thought to have targeted Nasrallah’s replacement, senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine the man widely regarded as the heir of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah’s intelligence chief, Hussein Hazimah, was also at the bunker at the time of the strike. Safieddine had been out of contact since the 4th October.
Deputy commander Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi said the top commander of Iran’s Quds Force said through state media, Esmail Qaani, is in “good health.” He also said that Qaani was not meeting Safieddine. However, according to a NYT report, citing three Iranian sources, Qaani had travelled to Beirut to convene with Hezbollah officials amid the Israeli strikes on the terror organization. An IRGC member said, according to the NYT report, that Iranian officials' muteness on the subject was spreading panic among the IRGC members.
The Iranian brigadier-general may have been wounded in the Israeli strike that targeted Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah's presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, in southern Beirut.
Later, on the 6th October Army Radio reported, citing local Iranian reports, that Qaani would conduct an interview later in the day. Nevertheless, The Jerusalem Post who was carrying the story was unable to later find any such interview.
It is more than possible that Qaani and Safieddine were in the same location which was targeted by Israel. There are coincidences. Both were known to have been together before the raid, neither have been heard from since the attack. The two officials have not been seen since the attack. Hezbollah has remained tight-lipped about the whereabouts of their possible successor and his health. Qaani had “sent a message” which could not be verified and in all honesty could have been sent by anyone.
If Israel had successfully targeted and struck at the location the two were at it would mean a great deal of bad luck had hit both parties. The presumed successor of Hezbollah along with the head of the IRGC-QF would be a huge blow. Two top officials assassinated leaving a huge hole in the leadership of the Quds Force and Hezbollah wondering where to go next. Israeli intelligence had infiltrated at a very high level which would cause confusion and mistrust.
Brigadier General Qaani sent a message to the 7th International Conference on Solidarity with the Palestinian Children on the 7th October. The host of the conference read out a message from Brigadier General Qaani, in which he conveyed his warmest greetings to all participants and apologized for not being able to attend the conference due to his participation in another important session.
Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani was eventually ended speculation about his health by showing up at the Mehrabad Airport of Tehran early on the 15th October 2024 at a ceremony held to receive the body of senior IRGC commander Brigadier General Abbas Nilforooshan. The senior Revolutionary Guards commander was killed in Lebanon along with the Hezbollah leader Nasrallah.
The Iranian Stance
In the Tehran Times Islamic Revolution Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, commented on the events transpiring in Palestine and Lebanon, stating Resistance fighters will emerge victorious in the fight against the Zionist regime. “Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is standing up for Gaza and enduring these bitter events, is engaging in fighting on the path of God.”
“In this battle, the infidel and evil enemy is equipped with the best resources. The U.S. is behind them. The Americans claim that they are not involved and are unaware of things, which is false. Not only are they aware and involved, they also require the victory of the Zionist regime.”
“The equipment and resources of the believers and the Mujahideen are a fraction of what the opposite side possesses. Nevertheless, victory lies with those who fight in the path of God, namely the Palestinian Resistance and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian on the 2nd October 2024 said that Iran was not looking for war but emphasised, “What we want from US and European countries is to tell the entity they have planted in the region (Israel) to stop the bloodshed.” The president making out that anyone outside Iran and their allies that they are the victims of the war.
Iran announced on the 2nd October 24 in the Tasnim News Agency reported that Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri who said the missile attack launched against Israel, which targeted three of the regime’s main military and espionage bases, served as a response to many of the Zionists’ crimes.
“After Martyr Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran went through a tough period of self-restraint amid repeated requests by the Americans and Europeans, who would ask us to exercise self-restraint so they would establish a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip (where the Israeli regime has been waging a genocidal war),” Major General Bagheri said. “However, after Seyed Hassan Nasrallah’s and (Brigadier) General (Abbas) Nilforoushan’s martyrdom, the situation was no longer tolerable,” he added.
The targets also featured the regime’s strategic radars, the centres housing the regime’s tanks and personnel carriers, and the centre accommodating those of the regime’s forces that partake in massacres against Palestinians in Gaza.
The military chief added, “If the Zionist regime, which has reached madness, was not controlled by the United States and Europe, and sought to either continue its atrocities or take action against our territorial integrity and sovereignty, tonight’s operation would be repeated with multiple magnitude and all of their infrastructures would be struck.”
The foreign minister of Iran warned third parties to avoid interference in the conflict following Tehran’s missile attack against Israeli targets in revenge for the assassination of resistance leaders and IRGC forces. Abbas Araqchi held telephone conversations with his counterparts from the UK, France, the Netherlands and a number of other countries on Tuesday night to discuss the situation following a massive missile attack that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps launched against Israeli military targets earlier in the day.
The foreign minister Araqchi, said Iran showed self-restraint for over two months after the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the continuation of the war on Gaza and Lebanon
Iran’s continuous rhetoric regarding any retaliation by Israel will be met by a harsher response gives the impression that Iran is frightened. It’s scared of what Israel and/or the United States will do in regards to the previous missile attack on Israel. Israel has already shown that it will not be deterred by Iran to any retaliation and that is why Iran is frightened. The world, the supporters of the Tehran government and Muslims (which Iran constantly attempts to turn against Israel and the United States) know that Iran’s direct attacks on Israel have failed, miserably.
A senior Iranian official said Tehran had told Gulf states it would be “unacceptable” if they allowed their airspace to be used against Iran and any such move would draw a response. “Iran made it clear that any action by a Persian Gulf country against Tehran, whether through the use of airspace or military bases, will be regarded by Tehran as an action taken by the entire group, and Tehran will respond accordingly,” the senior Iranian official told Reuters. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia all host US military facilities or troops.
In a clear message to Israel they stated,? “Israel, the first strike is yours, the last strike is ours.”
The State of Israel and their Response
Israel and the United States claimed that there will be a timed response to the attack that occurred on the 1st October. Suggested targets that were announced through the press were the Iranian oil infrastructure and Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iran had conveyed a message through European intermediaries to Israel regarding the awaited Israeli response that “the Iranian communication, primarily addressed to Israel in an indirect manner, indicates that Tehran would be prepared to overlook a limited Israeli strike and refrain from retaliation, despite the implied threat.” Iran was scared.
Iran’s government was reportedly highly nervous, engaging in urgent diplomatic efforts with Middle Eastern countries to assess whether they can limit the scope of Israel’s potential response to its missile attack earlier this month, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by CNN.
Even if Israel and the United States did listen and complied with the Iranian request, the Iranians would claim a great triumph against both of their enemies in the propaganda war. Iran would state that they had won a great victory and Iran had given a domineering response which Israel and the United States could not match.
On the 13th October 2024 a report in the Times of Israel and citing the New York Times stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran was more than aware of the savage and brutal attack on Israel on the 7th October 2023. The report said that there had been a series of meetings leading up to the attack between Hamas’s military and political leaders over the course of two years and with Hezbollah and Iran.
The New York Times detailed the minutes of 10 meetings spanning from January 2022 until August 2023. The Times said that it had verified the authenticity of the documents and had separately obtained an internal report by the Israel Defence Forces that did the same. The contents of additional meetings and messages, mostly focused on Iran’s involvement in planning and funding the attack.
While it was not always clear which officials had attended which meetings, The Times found that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was present at each one, while now-dead top officials Muhammed Deif and Marwan Issa attended at least several of them, as did Muhammad Sinwar, Yahya’s brother.
The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, were involved in the revelation. The Post said it had obtained letters written by Sinwar to Iranian officials in which he requested financial and military assistance for a large-scale assault on Israel. “We promise you that we will not waste a minute or a penny unless it takes us toward achieving this sacred goal,” Sinwar was said to write in a letter dated June 2021.
His request appeared to have been granted, as The Wall Street Journal said it had obtained a letter in which an Iranian official confirmed the allocation of $10 million for Hamas’s armed wing. Sinwar later asked for an additional $500 million, which he said could be delivered over the course of two years, with $20 million being transferred per month. Following the meeting in January 2022, the “big project” was discussed at length in later meetings of Hamas’s Gaza leadership in April and June of that year.
The retaliation for the attack by Iran using their stand-off weapons on the 1st October would also be an opportunity for Israel to strike at the financers who backed the 7th October 2023 attack on Israel where Hamas, the PIJ and others struck Israel.
Conclusion
Three of the major proxies who have vowed to eliminate Israel are now under attack by Israel, the very country that they have vowed to destroy. The world constantly urges restraint by Israel who are not the original aggressors. Iran and its proxies are the ones that are escalating events in the Middle East. Iran has now brought in the United States which is something that Iran did not want.
Israel does not simply want to incapacitate the Iranian proxies they want to destroy them, for good. The daily and constant sounds of sirens over the past many years of Iranian-backed proxies launching of drones, missiles and rockets at civilian targets in Israel has to stop somewhere. It may as well be now. Who would want to live under those daily bombardments? In reality, no one.
Iran stating that they had shown self-restraint is a lie from the government of Tehran. After all the assassinations of their allies and their IRGC officers they had to make a stand and show their followers and supporters that they are up to the task of fighting their enemies. That is why they eventually attacked Israel on the 1st October 2024.
If the Lebanese government has any sense, they will see this war of Israel against Hezbollah as a chance to stop the Iranian-backed influence of Hezbollah in Lebanese politics.
As for future targets against Iran from the United States and Israel, once the two governments have everything in place to attack Iran, then it will take place. Press speculation is that targets will consist of energy and military locations. It is doubtful that Iranian nuclear facilities will be targeted as these will be saved for a later date should Iran make a bid at achieving breakout, a term used when a country attempts to build a nuclear device or weapon. Both Israel and the United States have sworn that Iran will never have a nuclear device.
The last word goes to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was quoted in the Times of Israel on the 30th September 2024. The PM issued a rare direct message to the Iranian people saying Israel “stands with you,” as it aggressively fights the Islamic Republic’s proxies across the region in response to their attacks on the Jewish state.
“Every day, you see a regime that subjugates you make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza. Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war,” the premier said in an English-language video statement, which was also disseminated with Persian subtitles.
Saying Iran’s “puppets” were being eliminated, Netanyahu added there was “nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people.
“With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you — the noble Persian people — closer to the abyss,” he said. “The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn’t care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives."
“When Iran is finally free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different,” he asserted. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace."
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Paul Ashley
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Further Information
[1]??????? UN Charter Article 51.
Chapter VII — Action with respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression
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