1 factor will determine whether stocks rebound

Top of the morning, readers.?This year's market has brought only a sea of red, and one firm says a comeback for stocks is contingent?on one thing.?

Let's dive in.?

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1. The war must end for the stock market to rebound.?DataTrek Research said Tuesday that there could be much more downside over the coming months after a bleak start to the year, and that?geopolitical events hold sway?over what's to come.??

But if the S&P 500 enters the fall months as weak as it is today, there's little chance it can recoup all of its losses —?unless one particular event?convinces investors to shift back to risk-on.?

"The best chance the S&P 500 has at staging a comeback is a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a?drop in oil prices as a result," analysts at DataTrek wrote on Tuesday.?

The strongest snapbacks during the final two months of a year, the analysts pointed out, have?followed oversold market conditions stemming from geopolitical events?— specifically 1962's Cuban missile crisis, 1990's post-Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and 2001's post-9/11 period.?

This year's market rout has already struck down some of the top performers.?Funds like the?once-soaring Tiger Global?as well as Cathie Wood's?Ark Invest?have been hammered as investors flee growth stocks that enjoyed huge gains during the pandemic.?

Tiger Global has shed?$17 billion?this year, while Ark's flagship fund has fallen by 75% (though Wood's fund has still seen?$1.3 billion of investor flows).?

In other news:

2. Algorithmic stablecoin UST has struggled to maintain its peg amid the crypto bear market.?"Ultimately, those types of things are what got us in trouble in 2008," one token expert told Insider. Six crypto-investing heavyweights explained why they're sounding the alarm on the project —?but one's still making a bull case.

3. An economist who called the latest stock market selloff back in March shared why the S&P 500 could sink another 20%.?He also predicted how long a rebound might take — and explained?what history can reveal about today's crisis.

4. A man who grew his net worth from $2.26 to over $1 million within five years?explained his investment strategy.?Grant Sabatier invested in index funds and individual companies to achieve financial freedom by the age of 30.?He broke down exactly how he did it.?

5. Upstart Holdings cratered 57% in Tuesday's trading session.?Shares of the fintech company fell after it cut its yearly revenue outlook.?The consumer lending platform flagged a potential recession in slashing guidance.

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