1 BRAND, 1 GOAL, SURVIVE!

1,316 year old business, with one goal, survive against all human odds from wars, famine, plagues, fear of tyrants, the abrupt environmental and economic catastrophes. And the heirs are here, head to toe, to share with the world their brand story.

In the year 705 AD a business was born, one thousand three hundred and sixteen years later it is still operated by the same human family. This family has recorded a great deal of history, environmental events, wars, famine, pandemics, and yes social and economic unrest. This story is not unique, there are hundreds of businesses over two and five hundred to 1,000 years old, that still exist. That is the story of human and business endurance. It is our story.?The name of this business is Nishiyama Onsen Keiunkan, it is a hotel led by the same family for over 55 generations! It is a unique hotel and has its historical draw which contributes to its longevity. Stories like this are a testament in our ability to overcome challenges.?Because it is our inherent nature to learn and adopt new ways and adapt quickly to be ready for the next challenge.?Consider the cultural legacy created to endure over thirteen hundred years.

One of the many lessons here is, when brands stop rethinking their business and consumer models, change usually catches up with many of them very quickly. When you think about business longevity, a brands purpose, their vision, mission and values or principles, all play a big role in developing a strong culture. In this case a family commitment is the culture that keeps this business alive. Sounds like what all business cultures should be.

The pandemic has spooked many in business. The stock market fluctuates and performance wanes couple that with turnover at the top. Those with a strong culture, vision, commitment to innovation and developing talent from within have the potential to last the test of time. You will find a good list of all these businesses on Wikipedia.

"There is no world or time in history without political, economic, business or career risks, when you get to the other side, you will find the humans that had a plan and survived."

Retail and the Economy- Omicron Won't Stop Christmas Every time a big news event like Omicron happens this Shakespearean line comes to mind. "Something wicked this way comes." Macbeth. Yes. I quote Shakespeare often. So where do we go from here? And what is the impact on all of us? For starters we are now in business survival mode again however many businesses did pivot over the last two years. Albeit we will find out soon if they've pivoted enough.

A couple of months ago it was all about the potential of Stagflation and that it could bring the whole consumer market to a complete halt. That rhetoric had slowed down but the risk itself still has a probability and business leaders need to keep that risk in mind. Read more here. And the Delta variant was all we had to worry about. On the other hand, it is the Christmas shopping season and consumers are either out in droves or they shopped early because of product shortages or the pandemic. Some are predicting that volumes for December might be quieter. It really is a question of what story line one aligns with. As I mentioned to someone this week “smart business leaders don’t grow companies on hope, hype or hubris. They are hunters relentlessly looking for opportunities and innovation.” ?The results of this holiday season will show their impact in the first quarter of 2022. Both business and consumers will be making hard choices if inflation and Omicron persist. The NRF National Retail Federation has its 2022 show in January. I wonder if there will be a keynote speaker to address how to succeed in a downturn? Over the next 8 years businesses need to know more about the How? Versus just Why and What? How is an open-ended question. It speaks to operational implementation and execution. It poses questions about resources financial, talent, technology, and innovation. How, for businesses is the most important question in 2022 and beyond, I believe they all understand the Why and What??Any business that seeks to help retailers needs to understand the difference.

Omicron and Business Continuity - will it be the last Greek letter we use?

Omicron: Over the past five days 89 countries have now reported Omicron. The Netherlands (read this) has gone into restrictions until Mid-January at least. And the UK is considering more restrictions read here and of course Europe. ?Canada has already pulled the fire alarm, but the provincial responses are a mixed bag. However Quebec issued a close order today for a number of businesses (Read more here). In the US it is considered a Tidal Wave. Globally, no one is sure about the severity of this variant. Some are also speculating that this could be the last variant, it might be, but it is premature to assume that. No one knows for certain. Nevertheless, if it is we will all be thankful. I remind myself of a few polls we conducted asking when consumers will go back to their normal shopping routines. It was clear that for the majority it would be 6-12 months after the vaccines or when it was safe before they go back to normal. All one can say, is that we have a long road ahead of us. From a business leadership perspective no one should presume this is over and put their guard down.

Post Pandemic Planning: Yes that's right I am thinking post pandemic. But not right away. We all are wondering what does all of this have in store for businesses, workplaces and consumers? In mid 2021 I pulled together the "Four Stages of Recovery 2021 to 2030." My intent was to identify where the risks and opportunities were heading. In addition what the potential timelines for all of this were as well. More thoughts on post pandemic planning with comments on the timelines. Read Where do we go from here? As for the workplace, I see the gig-economy to continue to grow. It's likely that employers will see the benefits of smaller offices and find ways to cut costs further as technology investments allow them to.

The Great Inventory Glut - And The Major Sales Events That Follow

If the economies slows down because of inflation, and higher interest rates in Q1-2022 we will be sitting on a Sea (pun intended) of inventory that should have been here for the holidays. The question then is what happens to it? Smaller and weaker retailers will have to find ways to sell it and some of it will be bought by liquidators, because retailers need to pay back their lines of credit and be able to buy inventory for the next season...if they can. This inventory glut will impact many that don't control their own supply chains. How should businesses respond? You may want to read this. Ten Things For Monday Morning

Thoughts for another day..

Optical Retail Chains: The eyewear and overall optical category has been in a constant state of consolidation plays for years. This strategy of who accumulates the most optometric or optician locations looks more like monopoly than it is in the best interests of consumers. As consolidators push independents out and formalize their merchandising and pricing, they are also pushing consumers from independent care to more highly recognized retailers and in this uncertain economy that shift can happen rather quickly. I see SpecSavers (read my comments in a Retail Insider article) expansion in Canada as one of those major consumer shifts and eventually in the US as well.

Supply Chains and China: As many of my connections know I lived in China so my knowledge of the Country is a front row seat. China controls over 96 ports globally and is financing or building 46, mostly in Africa. That worries many politicians and business leaders globally. Our dependencies could cost us in the end. But we also need to dig deeper behind the scenes with the organizations who own the ships that carry the containers (read this Economist) and manage local ports which have no incentive to change, when they already make a lot of money with this situation. If anything holds back our recovery it will be this.

Metaverse: Getting Ready for the Metaverse, it can derail most of the plans many businesses have already invested in their transformations. It is an interesting situation as many pitch the concept with no observations or conversations about impact to businesses and consumers that can't afford to take part. That discussion for another day. The Metaverse isn't perfect and it's different today than the vision others have for tomorrow and it isn't all that comfortable for women or men watch this is to see why. Bloomberg Video

Personal Log

Environment: If we take the path of Ignorance, Bliss and Silence, we could end up with an outcome that isn't in our best interests. Whether it is clean water or air, safe workplaces, sustainably made products, protecting the natural environment or human rights. It all matters, just ask the people impacted by the harmful events each has encountered. I must admit before I got involved in stopping a quarry from damaging our community from most of the aforementioned elements, my efforts were around corporate social responsibility a fairly broad subject. Getting involved has opened my eyes and my mind, making me a far more effective business leader, board director and chair in a for profit environment. It has also taught me how much politicians also steer away from this subject. Simply, ESG has a place in business and it can be effective in building trust with consumers and shareholders.

It would be unfair not to point out there is also a consumer hypocrisy that goes with all of this as well. For starters, we can't claim we care about the environment, risky workplaces and other harms to society and the planet, as long as consumers look at price to buy cheap products that actually are not ESG compliant. There is a long road ahead before we get this right.

About George: I have held Senior executive positions as a Country General Manager and CEO in Fortune 500 Organizations. Board Director and Chair. I've had CEOs report to me, hired them, recruited board directors and lead boards. Today I preside on a board for an Electric Utility as its Chair. I run a consulting firm called Inception Retail Group Inc. Have written three books, and am invited to speak about retailing, consumers, governance and leadership. Most recent book is The New Bricks & Mortar -Future Proofing Retail. It is available on Amazon and other participating book sellers.

Happy Holidays!