1-6 Pulse - $4M & Over Manhattan Contracts Dropped 38% -Sales Volume Up 22%

The $4M and over luxury Manhattan market cooled last week as buyers enjoyed the final days of the holiday season. Contracts signed dropped 38% from the prior week but remained 18% higher than the same week in 2023—a testament to the market’s resilience.

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Pulse, where data transforms into actionable insights for smart real estate decisions. This week’s trends highlight the importance of aligning strategy with opportunity. How can you position yourself for success in this dynamic market? Let’s explore together.

Key Market Highlights

• Contracts Signed: 20 contracts, the benchmark for a healthy luxury market, were signed last week—up 18% YoY.

• New Listings: 14 new listings entered the market, a 75% weekly increase but 22% lower than the same period last year.

• Off-Market Listings: 56 listings came off the market, an 81% weekly increase. Larger numbers typically come off at this time of year as sellers decide to wait, regroup, and plan to relist in the spring.

• $10M+ Market Share: Strong performance with a 25% share.

• New Developments: Continued strength with a 30% market share.

• Market Segments: Condos led with 60%, Downtown dominated at 45%, followed by the Upper East Side at 35%.

• Discount Activity: Modest, with 25% of listings receiving reductions and a median discount of 5%.

• Sales Volume: $192,429,000, up 22% from the previous week.

Market Indicators

• Market Pulse: 4.15, up 1.4 points over the past month and 5 points YoY.

• Climate Index: 0.71, down 26% from last month but up 44.9% YoY, correlated to the significant number of listings exiting the market.

Macro Market Insights

The Manhattan luxury market is seeing a wave of optimism as buyers acclimate to elevated mortgage rates. December saw a 38% YoY increase in signed contracts across Manhattan in the overall market, with new listings up 42% annually. This renewed momentum reflects growing confidence among buyers who are no longer waiting for rates to drop. Financial institutions also project strong growth in 2025, which could further buoy the market.

Top 2 Contracts SEE ALL 20 CONTRACTS

#1- 67 Vestry St #PH

• Price: $48M (New Development)
• Location: Tribeca
• Details: 4 beds, 4.5 baths, 6,207 sq. ft. ($7,333 psf)
• Time on Market: 203 days, reduced by $2M.

#2- 233 W 11th Street

• Price: $13.5M
• Location: West Village (Townhouse)
• Details: 6 beds, 4 baths, 11 rooms
• Time on Market: 115 days.

Market Insights: The Story Behind the Numbers

The Pulse is increasingly recognized as a trusted resource for understanding Manhattan’s luxury real estate trends. Recently, a prominent TV wealth reporter began exploring how these insights shape the broader conversation about Manhattan’s market dynamics. For you, this means the data and strategies shared here are not only timely but also highly regarded by leading voices in the industry.

Contracts were up 18% YoY, underscoring a resilient demand for Manhattan luxury properties. However, inventory remains a concern as 56 listings exited the market last week. Many will reenter in the spring, but sellers must address the 4 Ps (Pricing, Presentation, Product Problems, Poor Marketing) to avoid relisting as stale properties.

New developments continue to capture attention for their modern amenities and lifestyle appeal. Buyers are embracing higher mortgage rates, fueling steady transactions despite tighter inventory, particularly in the $10M+ and new development segments. This dynamic could place upward pressure on prices.

Perspectives for Sellers and Buyers

Sellers:

The luxury market offers an advantageous environment for sellers, particularly with inventory levels down 52% YoY last week. To maximize leverage:

• Reassess pricing to reflect current market dynamics.
• Focus on flawless presentation and strategic marketing.
• Ensure your property stands out with innovative narratives and targeted tactics.

If relisting, avoid pitfalls by addressing previous challenges and repositioning your property effectively. A recent referral letter from my Leighton House client shows how the right strategies can transform challenges into success, reinforcing the value of expertise and dedication when navigating the market.

The luxury market offers an advantageous environment for sellers, particularly with inventory levels down 52% YoY last week. To maximize leverage:

• Reassess pricing to reflect current market dynamics.

• Focus on flawless presentation and strategic marketing.

• Ensure your property stands out with innovative narratives and targeted tactics.

If relisting, avoid pitfalls by addressing previous challenges and repositioning your property effectively.

Buyers:

While inventory uncertainty remains, value-driven opportunities abound:

• New Developments: Inventory remains tight, with only 2.7 years’ worth at current sales velocity, per Marketproof. Act swiftly to secure prime units.

• Recent Resales: These properties combine modern amenities with more competitive pricing.

• Co-Ops: Premium co-ops increasingly accommodate modern buyer preferences while offering discounts of 20%+ compared to condos.

Conclusion

The Manhattan luxury market presents unique opportunities for both sellers and buyers. Curious how these trends align with your goals? Let’s connect and explore your options.

Until next week, may your real estate dreams become a reality.

Warmest regards,

Carol

Carol Staab

Global Real Estate Advisor

Sotheby's International Realty..

650 Madison Avenue

Email: [email protected]

Website:?CarolStaab.Com

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$4M & Over Market Pulse

3.85

Market Pulse { ratio of suppy vs demand} has?risen 1.1 pt?from the past month?and has?risen 3.9 pts?from this time last year.

Market rising and favoring sellers more

$4M & Over Manhattan Climate Index

0.7

Down 27.% from last month

Up 42% from last year

More Challenging Market Threshold for Sellers due to more listings coming off the market that didn't sell

So