- US Bitcoin and Ether Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)?have seen record inflows following President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance.?
- In November, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $6.5 billion and Ether ETFs $1.1 billion, driven by interest from major players like BlackRock and Fidelity.?
- Trump has pledged to remove regulatory hurdles, fueling optimism in the crypto market, which has gained over $1 trillion since his election win.?
- Bitcoin nears $100,000, while Ether also surges, with bullish sentiment dominating options trading.?
- Cyber Monday buy now, pay later (BNPL)?spending in the U.S.?hit a record $991 million, with holiday-season spending projected at $18.5 billion.?
- Shares of Affirm and Block surged, and Klarna filed for a U.S. IPO.?
- Investors are optimistic but cautious about potential market volatility.?
- BNPL's share of online retail spending is expected to be 7.7 (7.5% last year)
- Companies like Affirm are mitigating risks by adjusting pricing and targeting creditworthy customers.
- Cocoa prices are expected to surge due to a multiyear structural supply-demand deficit, driven by poor harvests, depleted inventories, and structural issues like deforestation laws and a fertiliser shortage.?
- This will likely catch chocolate makers off guard, as they have reduced stockpiles and price hedges.?
- The situation is exacerbated by the spread of the cocoa swollen shoot virus in West Africa, which could significantly reduce production.?
- With demand for chocolate being relatively inelastic, prices are set to reach new inflation-adjusted highs.
- The 'stocks-to-grindings ratio' is a measure used in the cocoa market to indicate the relative availability of cocoa beans for processing.?
- It is calculated by dividing the end-of-season stocks of cocoa beans by the estimated grindings (processing) for the current crop year.?
- A lower ratio suggests higher demand relative to supply, which can lead to higher prices. Currently, the ratio is at a 45-year low
- The number of people taxed at 60 percent on part of their earnings has risen by 45 percent in two years, reaching 634,000 in 2023-24.?
- This increase is due to frozen tax thresholds and wage inflation.?
- Those earning over ￡100,000 lose ￡1 of their personal allowance for every ￡2 earned above this threshold, leading to a 60 percent effective tax rate on income between ￡100,000 and ￡125,124.?
- This "tax trap" disincentivises hard work and promotions, as higher earnings result in significantly higher taxes.?
- Some may opt for salary sacrifices or increased pension contributions, though these are often seen as unattractive.?
- Both major political parties are reluctant to address the issue, despite its impact on taxpayers.
Harry Mills | Director, Oku Markets
