中国钢铁行业前景展望 Outlook of China's steel industry

1. 全球视野

1. Global vision

1.1 全球粗钢产量：

1.1 Global crude steel production:

世界钢协近期发布的《2023年世界钢铁统计数据》显示，2022年全球粗钢产量为18.85亿吨，同比下滑3.9%。2022年中国粗钢产量达到 10.18亿吨，同比下降1.7%，连续两年同比下降，产量占全球的比例从2021年的52.8%升至54.0%。 （与之相对比，美国占据了20世纪前70年全球钢铁生产的首位，并在1945年以8000万吨产量创下占当时全球粗钢产量 63.92%的历史峰值）从生产路径看，2022年全球转炉钢产量占比为71.5%，电炉钢占比为28.2%。

The World Steel Association(WSA)?recently released the "World Steel Statistical Data for 2023", which showed that the global crude steel production in 2022 was 1.885 billion tons, down 3.9% year-on-year. In 2022, China's crude steel production reached 1.018 billion tons, down 1.7% year-on-year, which was the second consecutive year of year-on-year decline, and the proportion of production in the world rose from 52.8% in 2021 to 54.0%. (In contrast, the United States occupied the first place in global steel production in the first 70 years of the 20th century, and in 1945, it set a historical peak of 80 million tons of production, accounting for 63.92% of the global crude steel production at that time.) From the perspective of production path, the proportion of global converter steel production in 2022 was 71.5%, and the proportion of EAF steel?was 28.2%.

1.2 全球表观消费量：

1.2 Global apparent consumption:

从表观消费量（粗钢产量+净进口量）来看，2022年全球成品钢材表观消费量为17.81亿吨（和全球粗钢产品差1.04亿吨，此处存在各个项目的统计口径差异？是否有重复计算？或者只是钢厂及社会库存？），同比减少4.0%，大多数列入统计的国家成品钢材表观消费量均有不同程度下降，其中中国成品钢材表观消费量：2020年的10.06亿吨，2021年9.52亿吨，2022年9.21亿吨（和粗钢产量差值9700万吨，比当年净出口量多了2968万吨，去向如何？），下降3.5%。2022年中国钢材表观消费量占全球的比重为51.7%

From the perspective of apparent consumption (crude steel production + net import), the apparent consumption of finished steel products in the world in 2022 was 1.781 billion tons (104 million tons less than the global crude steel production, is there a difference in statistical caliber of each project here? Is there any double counting? Or is it just steel mills and social stocks?), a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. Most of the countries included in the statistics have seen a decline in apparent consumption of finished steel products to varying degrees, of which China's apparent consumption of finished steel products: 1.006 billion tons in 2020, 952 million tons in 2021, and 921 million tons in 2022 (97 million tons less than the crude steel production, 29.68 million tons more than the net export volume of the same year, where is it going?), a decrease of 3.5%. In 2022, China's apparent consumption of steel accounted for 51.7% of the world's total.

2022年，全球人均成品钢材表观消费量为221.8千克;韩国人均成品钢材表观消费量仍排名全球第一，为988千克，但比2021年下降93.2千克；其次是中国台湾，为728.2千克，比2021 年下降157.9千克；中国超过捷克位居第三，为645.8千克，同比减少23.2千克.2022年，南非、乌克兰、委内瑞拉人均成品钢材表观消费量排名后三位，分别为73.1千克、54.7千克和3.7千克。

In 2022, the apparent consumption of finished steel products per capita in the world was?221.8 kilograms; The apparent consumption of finished steel per capita in South Korea still ranked first in the world, at 988 kilograms, but it decreased by 93.2 kilograms compared to 2021; The second is Taiwan, China, which is 728.2 kg, down 157.9 kg from 2021; China ranked third with 645.8 kilograms, a decrease of 23.2 kilograms year-on-year. In 2022, South Africa, Ukraine, and Venezuela ranked the last three in terms of apparent consumption of finished steel products per capita, with 73.1 kilograms, 54.7 kilograms, and 3.7 kilograms, respectively.

从其他国家或地区长期历史规律来看，人均GDP到达一定水平以后，钢材人均表观消费量呈现箱体波动，上下限具体数据与各个经济体的产业结构相关。

From the perspective of long-term historical patterns in other countries or regions, when per capita GDP reaches a certain level, apparent per capita steel consumption shows?box-shaped fluctuations, with specific upper and lower limits related to the industrial structure of each economy.

美国与日本为发达国家，人均GDP超过20,000美元后，钢材消费强度出现先升后降趋势，但大都在中枢350及570公斤左右波动。

The United States and Japan are developed countries with per capita GDP exceeding US$20,000. The consumption intensity of steel first increases and then decreases, but mostly fluctuates around the central values of 350 and 570 kilograms.

中国人均GDP在2019年 突破10,000美元，人均钢材表观消费量在2020年达到峰值707.6公斤后（是历史峰值，毕竟转口贸易相比韩国少的多，可比较的合适目标为同为制造业强国、出口大国的德国、日本，这样的话，预计人均消费量有高达30~40%的下降空间），2021年降至 666.5公斤，2022年继续降低到645.8千克。

China's per capita GDP exceeded US$10,000 in 2019, and its per capita apparent consumption of steel reached a peak of 707.6 kilograms in 2020 (a historical peak, as re-export trade is much smaller than that of South Korea, and a suitable comparison target is Germany and Japan, both of which are manufacturing and export powerhouses. In this case,?it is expected that there is a 30-40% decrease in per capita consumption). In 2021, it fell to 666.5 kilograms, and in 2022, it continued to decrease to 645.8 kilograms.

1.3 全球钢材出口

1.3 Global steel exports

2022年全球钢材（成品+半成品）出口量为4.02亿吨，同比下滑12.5%，出口量占产量的比例为21%（如果去掉重复计算，应为10.7%）,如果以此比例推算，中国10.18亿吨的产量，出口量最大应达到1.1亿吨（2015年，中国钢材出口创1.12亿吨峰值，当年粗钢产量8.04亿吨，出口量占产量的比例为14%，引发了很多的贸易纠纷/限制），目前出口量（2022年出口钢材6732.3万吨，出口量占产量的比例为6.6%，也就占全球出口量的16.7%;2023年1月至10月份，中国出口钢材7473.2万吨，同比增长34.8%，预计全年接近9000万吨，接近历史最高点，板带材的比例，在出口的钢材产品中占比也超过了60%。）远低于平均水平，随着国内钢需求萎缩，钢价下跌，出口可能持续放量。

In 2022, the global steel (finished products + semi-finished products) export volume was 402 million tons, down 12.5% year-on-year, and the export volume accounted for 21% of the production volume (if the repeated calculations are removed, it should be 10.7%). If this proportion is used to calculate, China's production volume of 1.018 billion tons, the maximum export volume should reach 110 million tons (in 2015, China's steel exports reached a peak of 112 million tons, and the crude steel production volume was 804 million tons, and the export volume accounted for 14% of the production volume, which caused many trade disputes/restrictions). At present, the export volume (67.323 million tons of steel exported in 2022, accounting for 6.6% of the production volume, which also accounts for 16.7% of the global export volume；From January to October 2023, China exported 74.732 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%. It is expected to approach 90 million tons for the entire year, approaching a historical high. The proportion of plate and strip materials also accounts for over 60% of exported steel products.) is far below the average level. With the shrinking domestic steel demand and the falling steel price,?the export volume may continue to increase.

* 出口量分为成品和半成品钢材产品，包括欧盟、独联体和美墨加国家之间的贸易，数据基于广义钢铁行业产品，包括钢锭、半成品、热轧和冷加工产品、钢管、线材以及未加工的铸件和锻件等，包括 62个国家的出口数据，约占2021 年世界贸易总量的 94.8%，包含了重复计算的出口量。

* Export volume is divided into finished and semi-finished steel products, including trade between the EU, CIS, and the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The data is based on the generalized steel industry products, including steel ingots, semi-finished products, hot-rolled and cold-processed products, steel pipes, wire rods, and unprocessed castings and forgings, including export data from 62 countries, accounting for 94.8% of the total world trade volume in 2021, including the export volume of double counting.

2.中国钢铁行业状况

2.The situation of China's steel industry

2.1 中国钢材出口

2.1 China's steel exports

从中国钢材近十几年出口情况看，2002年~2015年，中国钢材出口量整体处于上升状态（除2008年受金融危机冲击，2009年钢材出口量陡然下降外），增长最快的当属2004年和2006年，同比分别增长了104%和109%，2006年中国成为钢材净出口国。2015年，中国钢材出口创1.12亿吨峰值，与当年国内钢价处于历史最低水平直接相关。2016年~2019年中国钢材出口量呈下降趋势，其中2017年钢材出口下降幅度最大，同比下降了30.5%，但仍为全球最大的钢材出口国。

From the perspective of China's steel exports in the past decade, China's steel exports have been on the rise from 2002 to 2015 (except for the financial crisis in 2008 and the sharp decline in steel exports in 2009). The fastest growth was in 2004 and 2006, with year-on-year growth of 104% and 109%, respectively. In 2006, China became a net exporter of steel. In 2015, China's steel exports reached a peak of 112 million tons, which was directly related to the lowest domestic steel price in history. From 2016 to 2019, China's steel exports showed a downward trend, with the largest decline in steel exports in 2017, down 30.5% year-on-year, but still the world's largest exporter of steel.

从中国钢材出口品种构成来看（以2021年为例），中国钢材出口主要以板材为主，约占出口总量的68%；其次棒线材及管材，约占总出口量的12%，11%。

From the perspective of the composition of China's steel export varieties (taking 2021 as an example), China's steel exports are mainly dominated by plate, accounting for about 68% of the total export volume; followed by bar and wire rod and pipe, accounting for about 12% and 11% of the total export volume respectively.

?出口市场结构：中国钢材主要输出为韩国、越南、菲律宾、泰国等地，其中韩国及越南由于当地加工厂较多，除当地小部分消耗外，转口贸易占大部分进口量。因此韩国、越南、菲律宾等地进口品种基本以板材为主。虽然近几年进口量稍许有所减少，但从量级上来看仍为中国最大买家，总体仍然以东南亚、中东为主，但中南美、非洲、一带一路沿线市场日益突出。

Export market structure: China's steel products are mainly exported to South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and other places. Among them, South Korea and Vietnam have a large number of local processing plants, and re-export trade accounts for most of the imports, except for a small portion consumed locally. Therefore, the imported varieties in South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and other places are mainly based on sheet materials. Although the import volume has slightly decreased in recent years, it is still the largest buyer in China in terms of magnitude, mainly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, but the markets in Central and South America, Africa, and the the Belt and Road are increasingly prominent.

2.2 中国钢铁行业结构

2.2 Structure of China's steel industry

兼并重组进行中，产业集中度提高，预计还将继续提高：

The merger and reorganization is in progress, and the industrial concentration is expected to continue to increase:

2022年，中国钢产量排名前10位的企业（CR10）合计产量为4.34亿吨，占全国钢产量的 42.8%，比2021年提升1.36个百分点（国家产业政策将中国钢铁产业集中度的目标值设为前10家大型钢铁企业的产业集中度为60%，预计国企仍是排头兵，在此过程中大量普材民企会被兼并或者关停）；排名前20位的企业（CR20）合计产量为5.72亿吨，占全国钢产量的56.5%

In 2022, the top 10 enterprises (CR10) in China's steel production ranked a total output of 434 million tons, accounting for 42.8% of the country's steel production, an increase of 1.36 percentage points compared to 2021 (the national industrial policy sets the target value of China's steel industry concentration as 60% for the top 10 large steel enterprises, and it is expected that state-owned enterprises will remain the vanguard, and in the process, a large number of general material private enterprises will be merged or shut down); the top 20 enterprises (CR20) ranked a total output of 572 million tons, accounting for 56.5% of the country's steel production.

?从国外成熟市场来看，钢铁工业在后工业化时代都会经历产业集中度大幅提升的过程，但过程并不是一蹴而就。美国、日本的钢铁行业均是在 1973年达到阶段性产量峰值，不过两国的钢铁集中度在之后 20 年内并没有出现提升， 钢铁集中度的大幅提升发生在产量峰值后的 25 至 30 年。目前美国和日本的 CR42集中度都接近 80%，因此展望未来，中国钢铁行业的兼并重组仍将继续，组建大型的钢铁集团、淘汰落后产能是增强中国钢铁行业国际竞争力的必由之路。

From the perspective of mature markets abroad, the steel industry will experience a significant increase in industrial concentration in the post-industrial era, but the process is not easy. The steel industries in the United States and Japan reached their peak production in 1973, but the concentration of steel in the two countries did not increase in the next 20 years. The significant increase in steel concentration occurred 25 to 30 years after the peak production. Currently, the CR42 concentration in the United States and Japan is close to 80%. Therefore, looking forward to the future, the merger and reorganization of China's steel industry will continue, and the establishment of large steel groups and the elimination of backward production capacity are the only way to enhance the international competitiveness of China's steel industry.

2.3 ?EAF-LF电炉钢路线（民企主导，长乐系领军）

2.3 EAF-LF EAF steel route (led by private enterprises, led by Changle Group)

钢产量达峰后发达国家均不同程度发展电炉短流程，产品都以建筑钢材为主，目前电炉钢比例基本保持在20%~30% (仅美国约为70%)。

After the peak of steel production, developed countries have developed electric arc furnace/EAF short processes to varying degrees, with products mainly consisting of construction steel. Currently, the proportion of EAF steel remains at around 20% to 30% (only about 70% in the United States).

?

2021年，中国电炉钢产能约为1.86亿吨，预计到2023年还将新建释放约2000万吨电炉钢产能，总产能预计可突破2.1亿吨。2021年，中国电炉钢产量为1.1亿吨，占全年粗钢产量的 10.7%，开工率长期稳定在 50%以上，距2025年占比达15%以上仍有不小差距（2035年远期目标30%）。

In 2021, China's EAF steel?production capacity was about 186 million tons, and it is expected that by 2023, about 20 million tons of EAF steel?production capacity will be newly released, and the total production capacity is expected to exceed 210 million tons. In 2021, China's EAF steel?production was 110 million tons, accounting for 10.7% of the annual crude steel production. The operating rate has been stable at over 50% for a long time, and there is still a significant gap from the proportion of over 15% in 2025 (long-term target of 30% in 2035).

据不完全统计，当前中国通过电炉炼钢的企业数量有251家（独立电炉钢企业约200家）,电炉钢装备总数为423座（包括现存、在建和待建，总产能2.18亿吨,平均公称容量约为70吨）电炉钢企业主要集中在华东和华南两个区域，占比分别为34.3%和21.1%，总占比达到55.4%；西南地区为12.7%。

According to incomplete statistics, there are currently 251 enterprises (about 200 independent EAF steel?enterprises) in China that use EAF steel, with a total of 423 EAF steel?equipment (including existing, under construction and to be built, with a total production capacity of 218 million tons and an average nominal capacity of about 70 tons). The EAF steel?enterprises are mainly concentrated in East China and South China, accounting for 34.3% and 21.1% respectively, with a total proportion of 55.4%; the proportion in Southwest China is 12.7%.

福建长乐系为代表的国内民营钢铁企业集群粗钢规模有1.5亿吨左右，这些民营钢企绝大多数均在本次统计的251家企业里。

The domestic private steel enterprise cluster represented by the Changle Group in Fujian province has a crude steel scale of about 150 million tons, and the vast majority of these private steel enterprises are included in the 251 enterprises included in this statistics.

** 电炉钢占比的提升，也为钢铁产量提供了更大的灵活性，平滑了钢价走势。

The increase in the proportion of EAF steel also provides greater flexibility for steel production and smooths the trend of steel prices.

“地条钢”产能：以废旧钢铁为原材料，由工频、中频感应电炉冶炼，劣质低质，在生产过程中造成大量污染，被用于建筑时会埋下安全隐患；2017年，在去产能的高压态势之下，终于被彻底清零。据国家统计局新闻发言人刘爱华介绍，到17年10月份，1.4亿吨“地条钢”产能已经出清。

Production capacity of "poor quality?steel": using waste steel as raw material, smelted by power frequency and medium frequency induction furnaces, poor quality, causing a lot of pollution in the production process, and will cause potential safety hazards when used in construction; in 2017, under the high pressure of reducing production capacity, it was finally completely eliminated. According to Liu Aihua, the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, by October 2017, 140 million tons of "strip steel" production capacity had been eliminated.

地条钢被替换成EAF产能后，总产能更大了*

After the replacement of poor quality steel with EAF capacity, the total capacity is even greater *

2.4 废钢贸易

2.4 Scrap steel trade

2022年，全球废钢出口量为9860万吨，同比增长0.1%；进口量为9600万吨，同比下滑4.0%；

In 2022, the global export volume of scrap steel was 98.6 million tons, up 0.1% year on year; the import volume was 96 million tons, down 4.0% year on year;

欧盟27国是全球最大的废钢出口地区，2022年共出口废钢4350万吨占全球废钢出口总量的44.1%。从单个国家来看，美国是全球最大的废钢出口国，2022年共出口废钢1750万吨，占全球废钢出口总量的17.7%；其次是英国，出口废钢820万吨，占比8.3%。

?The 27 EU countries are the world's largest exporter of scrap steel, with a total of 43.5 million tons of scrap steel exported in 2022, accounting for 44.1% of the world's total scrap steel exports. From a single country perspective, the United States is the world's largest exporter of scrap steel, with a total of 17.5 million tons of scrap steel exported in 2022, accounting for 17.7% of the world's total scrap steel exports; followed by the United Kingdom, with 8.2 million tons of scrap steel exported, accounting for 8.3%.

土耳其是全球最大的废钢进口国，2022年共进口废钢2110万吨，同比下降13.2%，占全球废钢进口总量的22.0%。

Türkiye is the world's largest importer of scrap steel. In 2022, it will import 21.1 million tons of scrap steel, down 13.2% year on year, accounting for 22.0% of the world's total scrap steel imports.

随着中国钢铁积蓄量的不断增加，社会废钢资源量也将不断累积。2019年，中国社会钢材积蓄量95.3亿吨，废钢资源量1.9亿吨，2020年中国废钢资源总量约为2.6亿吨，预计2025年中国废钢资源产生量将达到3.4亿吨以上，预计2030年中国废钢资源产生量将达4亿吨以上，可能逐步除了满足国内市场需求，还可能出口废钢。

With the increasing accumulation of steel in China, the amount of social scrap resources will also continue to accumulate. In 2019, China's social steel stockpile was 9.53 billion tons, and the amount of scrap resources was 190 million tons. In 2020, China's total amount of scrap resources was about 260 million tons. It is expected that China's scrap resources will reach more than 340 million tons in 2025, and more than 400 million tons in 2030.?It is possible that China will gradually export scrap steel in addition to meeting domestic market demand.

2.5 铁矿石贸易

2.5 Iron ore trade

2022年，全球铁矿石贸易量为15.87亿吨，其中，中国进口铁矿石（铁矿砂及其精矿）同比下滑1.6%至11.08亿吨，占全球贸易量的69.8%。

In 2022, the global iron ore trade volume was 1.587 billion tons, of which China's imports of iron ore (iron ore and its concentrate) fell by 1.6% year-on-year to 1.108 billion tons, accounting for 69.8% of the global trade volume.

铁矿成本在钢材成本中占比超过30%，是价值最高的单项原料；另一方面，中国铁矿石极度依赖进口，对外依存度高达70%。然而全球矿石供给主要被四大矿商垄断(即必和必拓(BHP Group Ltd., BHP.AU )、力拓(Rio Tinto PLC, RIO.AU )和淡水河谷公司(Vale S.A., VALE)，FMG），尽管中国每年铁矿石消费占全球50%，但由于国内钢铁产业集中度低、钢企各自为战等因素，导致国内钢企缺乏定价权。

The cost of iron ore accounts for more than 30% of the cost of steel, making it the single most valuable raw material. On the other hand, China's iron ore is extremely dependent on imports, with a foreign dependence of up to 70%. However, the global supply of ore is mainly monopolized by the four major miners?（BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, FMG）. Although China's annual consumption of iron ore accounts for 50% of the world's total, due to factors such as the low concentration of the domestic steel industry and the independent efforts of steel companies, domestic steel companies?has no?pricing power.

2.6 环保压力

2.6 Environmental pressure

钢铁行业是发电之外的中国第一大碳排放工业，也是固体颗粒物、二氧化硫、氮氧化物以及二噁英 的排放大户。

The steel industry is the largest carbon-emitting industry in China after power generation, and is also a major emitter of solid particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and dioxins.

2021年，钢铁行业制定了比全国整体更为激进的两 碳目标——力争到2025年前实现碳排放达峰，2030年钢铁碳排放量较峰值降低30%、碳减排量4.2 亿吨， 即“2年实现能效提升、3年实现超低排放、8年实现碳排放减量”。 但钢铁行业实施绿色低碳的最大挑战在于，大规模环保改造会进一步增加企业的生产成本。

In 2021, the steel industry set a more aggressive carbon reduction target than the national overall target - striving to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2025, reducing carbon emissions by 30% from the peak in 2030, and reducing carbon emissions by 420 million tons, that is, "achieving energy efficiency improvement in 2 years, ultra-low emissions in 3 years, and carbon emission reduction in 8 years". However,?the biggest challenge for the steel industry to implement green and low-carbon measures is that large-scale environmental protection reforms will further increase the production costs of enterprises.

2.7 海外产能布局

2.7 Overseas production capacity layout

到2022年中，据不完全统计，中国钢企计划或已经在全世界至少20个国家（主要是东南亚、东非、西非、中亚、中东等）进行海外建厂，来实现产能外移。

By mid-2022, according to incomplete statistics, Chinese steel companies plan to or have already established overseas factories in at least 20 countries around the world (mainly Southeast Asia, East Africa, West Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, etc.) to achieve the outward relocation of production capacity.

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3.未来展望：

3. Future outlook:

钢铁行业将进入减量发展阶段，国内钢铁行业以往粗放式发展模式将终结

The steel industry will enter a stage of reduction development, and the extensive development model of the domestic steel industry in the past will come to an end

自2000年起，在全球化、城镇化和工业化三大因素驱动下，中国钢铁产业持续扩张发展，粗钢产量从2000年的1.3亿吨增长到2020年的10.53亿吨，2000-2020 复合增长率达11%。2020年中国粗钢产量占全球总产量约56%，占到全球钢铁市场的“半壁江山”

Since 2000, driven by globalization, urbanization and industrialization, China's steel industry has continued to expand and develop. The crude steel output has increased from 130 million tons in 2000 to 1.053 billion tons in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 11% from 2000 to 2020. In 2020, China's crude steel output accounted for about 56% of the global total output, accounting for "half of the world's steel market".

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2020年以来，在多重因素影响下，中国经济增速进一步放缓，钢铁行业的历史性拐点也随之到来。?2020年国内钢铁表观需求量达到10.06亿吨，触历史峰值，之后便以-1.3%的复合年均增长率 （CAGR）逐年下降，预计该趋势未来仍将持续。

Since 2020, under the influence of multiple factors, China's economic growth has further slowed down, and the?historic turning point of the steel industry?has also arrived. In 2020, the apparent domestic demand for steel reached 1.006 billion tons, hitting a historical peak, and then decreased year by year at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.3%. It is expected that this trend will continue in the future.

钢铁工业伴随所在经济体工业现代化的推进而高速发展，在其工业化达到顶峰时粗钢产量往往也达到占比峰值。从主要发达国家整体情况来看，整体工业化进程完成之后，发达国家在未来10年粗钢产量都会出现不同程度的下降才能基本平稳，因中国在2020年粗钢产量和表观消费量都已经达峰，预计2030年前会全行业收缩、走出缓慢下行的走势。

The steel industry develops rapidly with the advancement of industrial modernization in the economy where it is located, and its crude steel output often reaches its peak when its industrialization reaches its peak. From the overall situation of major developed countries, after the completion of the overall industrialization process, the crude steel output of developed countries will decline to varying degrees in the next 10 years to maintain a basic stability. As China's crude steel output and apparent consumption have reached their peaks in 2020, it is expected that the whole industry will shrink and exit the slow downward trend before 2030.

参照美国、日本、德国等国钢铁行业发展历程，预计中国钢铁产量达峰后的10年，粗钢产量会缩减到65~85%，即6.8~8.9亿吨的规模，其中，减量最显著的应该是建筑钢材如螺纹钢、盘条、型钢等，同时，出口量可能会收益于低价格而略有增加，维持在7000万~1亿吨左右的规模。

Referring to the development history of the steel industry in the United States, Japan, Germany and other countries, it is expected that 10 years after the peak of steel production, the crude steel production will be reduced to 65-85%, that is, 680-890 million tons. Among them, the most significant reduction should be in construction steel such as rebar, wire rod, steel section, etc. At the same time, the export volume may slightly increase due to low prices, maintaining at around 70-100 million tons.

判断依据：Judgment basis:

在中国钢材消费结构中，以基建、住宅、商业、工业产房为主的建筑钢材占比达60%（与之对比，德国建筑用途约35%），其次为机械制造、交通和金属制品用钢，分别占比约15%、7%和7%。

In China's steel consumption structure, construction steel, which is mainly used in infrastructure, residential, commercial, and industrial production, accounts for 60% (compared to about 35% in Germany for construction purposes), followed by steel for machinery manufacturing, transportation, and metal products, accounting for about 15%, 7%, and 7%, respectively.

本轮钢铁下行发生在中国经济减速大背景下，房地产、基建和制造业三大市场均面临不同程度的需求萎缩，导致中国钢铁需求量于2020年见顶。2020年国内钢铁表观需求量达10.06亿吨，之后便逐年下降，预计2025年钢铁需求将降到8.68亿吨。

This round of steel downturn occurred against the backdrop of China's economic slowdown, with the three major markets of real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing all facing varying degrees of demand contraction, leading to a peak in China's steel demand in 2020. In 2020, the apparent domestic steel demand reached 1.006 billion tons, and then declined year by year. It is expected that the steel demand will drop to 868 million tons in 2025.

2022年，在供需双弱、价格下跌、成本高企的背景下，钢铁行业盈利水平出现大幅下滑。据中钢协统计，2023前三季度，重点统计钢铁企业销售利润率1.33%，同比下降0.66个百分点，在41个工业大类中排名靠后，处于较低水平。

In 2022, against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, falling prices, and high costs, the profitability of the steel industry experienced a significant decline. According to the China Iron and Steel Association（CISA）, in the first three quarters of 2023, the key statistical steel enterprise sales profit margin was 1.33%, down 0.66 percentage points year-on-year, ranking low among 41 industrial categories and at a low level.

中国钢铁市场尽管总量萎缩，但依然存在结构分化机会。具体而言，螺纹、普线等低端钢材需求加速下降，优特棒线材、冷轧板卷等中高端钢材需求稳中有升。

Although the total volume of China's steel market is shrinking, there are still opportunities for structural differentiation. Specifically, the demand for low-end steel products such as thread and plain wire is accelerating, while the demand for medium- and high-end steel products such as high-quality steel rods and cold-rolled steel coils is steadily increasing.

建筑用钢：随着城镇化率进入尾声（国家统计局数据显示，2022年末城镇人口占全国人口比重（城镇化率）为65.22%，其中上海、北京、天津这三大直辖市城镇化率位居前三，且均已超过85%，比肩发达国家和地区的水平；经合组织（OECD）成员国的平均城镇化率为78.40%），中国房地产行业将迎来调整期，2022年新增开工面积预计较 2021年下降~25%、2023~2024年将继续以-5%~-10%的CAGR下降；基建行业作为中国经济发展 重要驱动力，预计相对保持稳定。

Construction steel: As the urbanization rate comes to an end (according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the urban population accounted for 65.22% of the national population at the end of 2022, with the urbanization rate of the three municipalities of Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin ranking the top three, all exceeding 85%, which is comparable to the level of developed countries and regions; the average urbanization rate of the OECD member countries is 78.40%), the Chinese real estate industry will usher in a period of adjustment. The newly added construction area in 2022 is expected to decrease by ~25% compared to 2021, and the CAGR will continue to decrease by -5% to -10% from 2023 to 2024. As an important driving force for China's economic development, the infrastructure industry is expected to remain relatively stable.

房地产需求的下降将导致螺纹钢、普线等建筑用钢需求出现较为显著的下降；

The decline in real estate demand will lead to a significant decline in the demand for construction steel such as rebar and plain steel wire;

优特钢棒线材：乘用车产量预计长期将迎来缓慢增长，同时国内制造业升级将支撑优特钢需求呈现增长趋势。

Special steel bars and wires: The production of passenger cars is expected to experience slow growth in the long run, while the upgrading of domestic manufacturing will support the growth trend of demand for special steel.

4.初步结论 Initial conclusion:

4.1中国钢铁行业从2020年见顶以来，进入了长期缩量发展、精细发展的新阶段，过去粗放发展的习惯性做法会逐渐失效；

4.1 Since the peak in 2020, China's steel industry has entered a new stage of long-term shrinking and well-management development, and the habitual practices of extensive development in the past will gradually become ineffective;

4.2未来25~30年，也就是2050年前，行业大规模兼并重组、破产清算、产品结构调整、电炉钢占比攀升都是可以预见的，行业从业人数也将随之减少；

4.2 In the next 25-30 years, that is, before 2050, large-scale mergers and reorganizations, bankruptcy liquidations, product structure adjustments, and the increase in the proportion of EAF steel can be expected, and the number of industry employees will also decrease accordingly;

4.3随着行业集中度提高，与钢厂关系可能成为未来贸易商的命脉，如何经营钢厂关系、争取钢厂长线支持至关重要；

4.3 With the increasing concentration of the industry, the relationship with steel mills may become the lifeblood of future traders. How to manage the relationship with steel mills and gain long-term support from them is crucial;

4.4钢贸出口行业可能会出现数个中国版“DUFERCO”“MANUCHAR”

“STEEL FORCE”“STEEL RESOURCES INTERNATIONAL/SRI”作为行业领头羊，其他中小型出口企业将被迫退出普钢贸易，可能需要往深加工、特殊品种、特殊市场方向转型才能生存；

4.4 The steel trade export industry may see several Chinese versions of “DUFERCO”“MANUCHAR”“STEEL FORCE”“STEEL RESOURCES INTERNATIONAL/SRI”?as industry leaders, Other small and medium-sized export enterprises will be forced to withdraw from the regular steel trade and may need to transform towards deep processing, special varieties, and special markets in order to survive

4.5随着中国钢铁蓄积量的不断增加，废钢回收及利用将更成熟，未来随着废钢资源日渐增加，除满足国内炼钢需求外，还有余量可供出口。

4.5 With the increasing accumulation of steel in China, the recycling and utilization of scrap steel will become more mature. In the future, with the increasing amount of scrap steel resources, there will be surplus for export in addition to meeting domestic steel-making demand.

?编写：党晓明

Drafted and reviewed by Mr. Denis Dang

Email: ?[email protected] ?;[email protected] ???

BEIJING SUMMIT STEEL CO.,?LTD.?

Mobile/WA: +8618618307198

日期：2023年11月22日定稿

Final version on November 22, 2023