中国影子银行的经济学分析：对金融稳定的影响（Economics of China's Shadow Banking: the Impact on Financial Stability）
中国影子银行的经济学分析之四（Economics of China's Shadow Banking Series: 4）
发表于《金融监管研究》。知网下载链接（CNKI Download Link）:
摘要：近年来影子银行在中国迅速发展,各类主体、金融机构广泛参与,资金一般流向宏观调控所限制的领域,且交易结构复杂,往往有多层的产品嵌套。影子银行的这些属性使其可能潜藏金融风险,对金融稳定也造成了广泛影响。本文经分析后认为,影子银行一是影响了金融风险的"防范",推动资产价格上涨,形成金融风险的"源";二是影响了金融风险的"化解",扭曲了金融机构的监管指标。本文首次运用李文喆(2019a)测算的翔实的中国影子银行总量和资产负债表结构时间序列数据,对上述分析进行实证检验。运用经济增长、贷款、影子银行、物价、房价组成的结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)的结果显示,影子银行存量同比增速冲击主要是对房地产价格增速产生了上拉作用,对经济增长、物价的作用不大。本文还原了考虑影子银行之后的主要监管指标,发现在考虑影子银行影响后,我国商业银行的资本充足率、拨备覆盖率均突破了法律法规规定的下限,存贷比也突破了有关法律法规规定的上限。近年来监管不断加强,部分还原后的指标有所改善,满足了监管要求。为有效应对中国影子银行发展对金融稳定造成的影响,本文提出了相应的政策建议。
Abstract: China's shadow banking has been developing rather fast in recent years, in which all sorts of entities and financial institutions are involved. Shadow banking financing usually goes towards fields restricted by government policies. They also have complex transaction structure and involve several layers of financing nesting. These attributes make shadow banking a potential risk source and exert broad influence on financial stability. This paper analyzes the impact of Chinese shadow banking on financial stability from two aspects. First, it negatively affects prevention of financial risks, in pushing up asset prices and forming risk sources. Second, it negatively affects resolution of financial risks in twisting regulatory indicators of financial institutions. Li (2019a) estimates accurate time series data of aggregates and balance sheet structure of China's shadow banking. This paper for the first time utilizes these data to conduct empirical tests. SVAR model formed by economic growth, loan, shadow banking, consumer price and real estate price shows that shadow banking has a major effect on pushing up real estate price, while have little effect on economic growth and consumer price. This paper also recalculates the main regulatory indicators after considering shadow banking. In recent years, since financial regulation has been strengthened, some de facto regulatory indicators have improved and satisfied regulatory threshold.