中国影子银行的经济学分析:对货币政策调控的影响 (Economics of China's Shadow Banking: Impact on Monetary Policy)
中国影子银行的经济学分析之三（Economics of China's Shadow Banking Series: 3）
发表于《中国经济问题》。知网下载链接（CNKI Download Link）:
摘要：近年来,中国迅速发展的影子银行为实体经济提供了传统贷款和表内债券投资以外的融资渠道,实质性地改变了实体经济所处的货币金融条件。一方面,货币政策调控还盯着传统的中间目标和监测指标,另一方面,大量融资早已跳出了M2和人民币贷款的"条条框框",货币政策调控陷入"调不准"的走偏境地。本文基于货币政策传导机制的视角,从货币政策的三类目标及其所依赖的两级银行体系着手,定量分析影子银行对"操作目标→中间目标(监测指标)→最终目标"两步传导的影响,这一视角在已有文献中具有独创性。本文首次采用李文喆(2019)测算的中国影子银行总量和资产负债表结构时间序列数据,对上述机制进行了实证检验,检验结果支持影子银行发展使货币政策调控有效性降低、调控偏离目标的结论。本文研究还发现,影子银行对货币政策调控有效性的影响在影子银行发展的不同周期不同,在影子银行增长比较快时,货币政策调控的有效性下降更多,这进一步支持了本文分析。
Abstract: In recent years, the fast expansion of China’s shadow banking provides financial channels beyond traditional loans and bond investments, which changes the de facto monetary and financial conditions of real economy. On the one hand, monetary policy still targets traditional intermediate targets and monitoring indicators. On the other hand, much financing happens beyond coverage of M2 and RMB loans, which results in deviation of monetary policy regulation. From the perspective of monetary policy transmission mechanism, starting from 3 kinds of targets of monetary policy, and the two-tier banking system they rely on, this paper quantitatively analyzes impact of shadow banking on the two-step transmission, i.e. operating targets->intermediate targets->ultimate targets. This perspective has innovative uniqueness in current literature. This paper for the first time utilizes the time series data of aggregates and balance sheet structure of China’s shadow banking from Li (2019) and conducts empirical tests to above transmission mechanism. Tests results support the conclusion that development of shadow banking negatively impacts effectiveness of monetary policy, and deviates monetary policy regulation. This paper also finds that impacts of shadow banking on monetary policy is different at different development phase of shadow banking. When shadow banking grows faster, the impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy is more severe, which further supports the analysis of this paper.