Zoe Scaman的动态

Presidentsverkiezingen VS. TRUMP POTUS????♂??????? -Democrats Need to Fundamentally Rethink Every-thing—Starting Now https://lnkd.in/eWBQZDcT The lesson from 2024 is clear: If voters don’t see you as an agent of transformational change, they will turn to someone like Trump. -It’s Happening Again https://lnkd.in/eGK_Rvr8 And until Democrats can find a way to win back some large chunk of working-class voters, Trump’s successors will be favored in the next presidential election too! -Democratic Party Elites Brought Us This Disaster https://lnkd.in/etGhfuGP The story that is about to be pushed hard is that Ka-mala Harris lost because she was too far left. It will be pushed because this is the Democratic establish-ment’s go-to explanation for all its failures. Kamala Harris faced a near-impossible task in 2024. Inflation and the cost of living were soaring, and the Biden-Harris administration had been struggling for years to show Americans how it had improved their lives. Working-class voters, in particular, wanted concrete changes they could see and feel not just promises and statistics. Trump, with his brash populism and conspiracy-laden rhetoric, was more than ready to fill that void. He framed economic hardships as proof of Democratic incompetence, tapping into the frustrations of working-class communities who increasingly felt alienated from a Democratic Party that seemed more concerned with elite agendas than their daily challenges. So yes, the hurdles for Harris were high. But this dynamic was not new. As far back as Oct. 2020, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warned the leaders of her party that “if these people’s lives don’t actually feel different, we’re done. You know how many Trumps there are in waiting?” For many voters, the Democratic establishment’s cautious, incremental approach feels disconnected from the pressing economic and cultural pressures reshaping their lives. Ocasio-Cortez’s message was true then, and it is still true now: Without bold, transformative action, Democrats risk ceding these voters to populists who promise to dismantle a system that feels rigged and unresponsive—as they found out so calamitously on Tuesday. .

In a recent article titled "Black Vote, Black Power," Keith Boykin and Word In Black delve into the 2024 presidential election, examining the issues, the candidates, and what's at stake for Black America. The article raises several key questions about the election results, including how it happened, why it happened, and what it means for the future. The article highlights the stark contrast between the voting patterns of different demographics, with Trump's base- white men, white women, and Hispanic men- making up 77% of the electorate, while Harris's base- Black women, Black men, and Latino men- representing only 18% of the electorate. It also explores the role of cultural resentment against a changing America in Trump's success. The article also discusses the potential impact of Trump's victory on the Supreme Court, the Department of Education, and the economy. It emphasizes the importance of self-care and community support in these challenging times. What are your thoughts on the election results and their implications for the future? How do you think the political landscape will change in the coming years?

In a recent article, Keith Boykin and Word In Black delve into the 2024 presidential election, examining the issues, the candidates, and what's at stake for Black America. The results have left many questioning how it happened, why it happened, and what it means for the future. The article highlights the three strongest groups that supported Donald Trump: white men, Hispanic men, and white women. On the other hand, Kamala Harris's strongest groups were Black women, Black men, and Latino women. The exit polls show that Trump's base made up 77% of the electorate, while Harris's base was only 18%. The article argues that this isn't about policy, but rather about cultural resentment against a changing America. It also raises questions about what Harris could have done differently and how Trump's base was willing to excuse or embrace his racism, sexism, and xenophobia. The article also highlights the potential consequences of Trump's victory, including the appointment of a new attorney general who could potentially fire Special Counsel Jack Smith and dismiss the criminal charges against Trump. It also discusses the potential for Trump to appoint vaccine denier RFK Jr. to head up women's health and vaccines and the possibility of mass deportation of immigrants through executive authority. What are your thoughts on the 2024 presidential election and its implications for the future? How do you think the results will impact the political landscape in the United States? https://lnkd.in/gzQWEiEr #2024election #presidentialelection #blackamerica #trumpbase #harrisbase

First-time young voters could play a key roll in the outcome of the United States election and its been interesting to see how both parties are trying to get their support. Spent some time talking to the youths -- suddenly I'm not one of them -- to figure out what they are thinking about before casting a ballot. -- It felt like his future was at stake when 18-year-old Carter Fay cast an early ballot in the United States election. “The reality is that our democracy, I truly think, is on the line. And so do people in my generation,” said Fay, who’s from the battleground state of Georgia. “To put it straight, we are scared.” Fay is among an estimated eight million generation-Z voters who can take part in a presidential election for the very first time. There’s power behind this generation, which is angry at the current political system and worried about its future. And the race to the White House still looks to be a dead heat. Many young people were dismayed when it appeared the election would be a repeat of the 2020 matchup between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. Trump had been chipping away at the Democrats’ hold on the youth vote, making inroads among young white men without college educations. He was also seeing some increasing support among young Black and Latino men. Democrats were concerned younger voters who felt apathetic about two older candidates might not even show up to the polls. There was a tumultuous turnaround after a disastrous presidential debate, and Biden removed his name from the Democrat ticket. Vice-President Kamala Harris catapulted into the candidacy boosted by a swell of memes, viral moments and the excitement of younger Americans. Polls suggest young people are overwhelmingly supportive of Harris, with a ratio of around 60-40, said the University of Pennsylvania’s Marc Trussler. But there is a significant gender divide. “Young men are much more pro-Trump,” said Trussler, director of data science for the university’s program on opinion research and election studies. “But even amongst young men, it’s probably tied between Harris and Trump, maybe a little bit pro-Harris.” Evan, who attended a recent Trump rally in Pennsylvania, said it was his first time voting for president. The 20-year-old, who didn’t give a last name, said he has been running a business since he was 12, and it’s difficult under the current administration. “Seeing the prices of stuff, inflation up-down, up-down,” Evan said. “Now, it’s like it’s finally our turn to have money in this world, do the things we want, and … (we) can’t afford nothing.” https://lnkd.in/g2qwfjXy

Gen Z x the 2024 US Presidential election: let’s talk about it. ? Here’s what to know: -With more than 41M Gen Z voters, both Trump’s and Harris’s campaigns invested heavily in reaching Gen Z -Despite many newlines claiming Gen Z overwhelmingly backed Harris (e.g., “Harris maintains double-digit Gen Z lead over Trump in Harvard survey”) Trump actually GAINED ground with young voters this election. -Trump won the youth vote in 17 states, compared to just 7 states in 2020. -46% of young people voted for Trump, mainly young men, up from 36% in 2020. (CIRCLE) ? How did he grow so much favor in youth culture? Trump focused on reaching younger MALE voters in conversational settings, visiting football games and participating in events with the NELK Boys, Theo Von and Joe Rogan. Just one example — Samir Chaudry broke down how "Conversational availability" on YouTube became a critical factor for Gen Z voters. Stats specific to podcast views on YouTube, not across RSS feeds: ?? Donald Trump 13 Videos, 124 million views ?? Kamala?Harris 4 Videos, 2.4 million views ? What else should we keep in mind: Overall youth voter turnout was actually down compared with 2020. Anything else? **Note: exit poll data is incomplete and may not be representative. It is important to follow updates in the coming weeks as we continue to unpack this. ?? Read more:

Now that Super Tuesday is over and the?Democratic and Republican nominees are all but officially chosen, as everyone expected, voters can turn the page to the general election. But they’re not excited about it, and they haven’t been for months. A September 2023 Monmouth University poll showed?no more than 40% of Americans said they were “enthusiastic”?for either Biden or Trump to run again. That same month, the?Pew Research Center?found that 65% of Americans were exhausted with the current state of American politics. In February 2024,?The New York Times?said Democrats in particular were burned out by the seemingly endless avalanche of political crises. It is not surprising that a rematch of the 2020 election is failing to inspire excitement in the American people. Yet, as a political scientist who studies?citizen engagement?and?the public’s feelings?toward the candidates, I find these trends disturbing. It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise – it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy. There is another divide in politics Most discussions of the current state of the American electorate have understandably focused on political polarization. Democrats and Republicans often?express disdain for each other, even when they don’t actually disagree on specific policies for the nation to pursue. Some of this?disdain is rooted in identity. For example, people who hold unfavorable attitudes toward African Americans, feminists and other groups associated with the Democratic Party tend to identify more strongly with the Republican Party. People with unfavorable attitudes toward stereotypically Republican groups such as evangelicals and gun owners tend to be stronger Democrats. From this perspective, Democrats and Republicans are pack animals motivated to protect their group and their group’s interests. Often overlooked, however, is how the vitriol of modern American politics fuels what political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan call “The Other Divide.” This is the divide between people who engage in politics and those who don’t. In short, a significant number of Americans don’t talk about politics, whether because they are not interested in politics or are turned off by the negativity. It’s a gradual trend dating back to the 1980s and 1990s that has continued for decades now. This weakens the fabric of democracy, because the only voices that are heard online and in the media are from those who are most willing to speak up. They tend to be the most dissonant and extreme views. The public discussion about the country’s past, present and future therefore leaves out a wide range of people’s voices. What they might say is hard to know, specifically because they don’t engage in political discussions.

#thepoonreport - Women for Harris, young men for Trump? The day has come, #US Presidential election on Tuesday, Nov 5. In most states, polling stations will open between 7 am and 9 am local time. Given the span of multiple time zones in the US, that would be between 11:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT. Poll closing times differ from state to state and sometimes county to county. Most polling stations will close between 6 pm ET and midnight ET. Hours after the first polls close, results are expected to start to come in. Some states will tally votes more quickly than others because as polls close several hours later in states to the west, their first results will only come in much later. According to #FT, the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom #Iowa poll on Saturday showed Harris leading Trump in the state 47% to 44% just days before the election. unexpected poll result will almost certainly set off alarm bells for the Trump campaign. The #Iowa poll suggests Harris’s surge can be explained in part by an increase in support from independent #female voters. On the other hand, #WSJ said Trump is pinning his political future on winning the votes of disaffected young men. But persuading them to get off the couch to cast ballots is no easy feat. Young men vote at far lower rates than many other demographic groups. They are more likely than older generations and their female peers to be disconnected from politics, and they are increasingly disillusioned with the country’s institutions, according to researchers and election analysts. The Sunday Times said whoever wins, this new world will endure. Why Trump may be about to stage the biggest comeback in #US history. He understands what Democrats don’t: #America is fed up with #migration, woke and foreign wars. If Harris pulls out a win, we’ll see a more gradual shift. If Trump wins, the ride could get very bumpy, and he could push America’s fraying social fabric and its constitutional stability to the edge. He is utterly reckless, and now he has no guardrails at all. I’m a conservative, and for me, the risk of destabilising the rule of law, the legitimacy of elections, and the peaceful transfer of power is what will make me hold my nose and vote Harris. Some risks are not worth taking. The Sunday Times also wrote that should Trump win the election this week and appoint, as he has promised, #ElonMusk to spearhead a startling plan to slash government spending by nearly a third, government workers would do well to stock up on toilet paper. The notion of Musk applying his famously brutalist management style to the biggest business in America has stirred enthusiasm among Trump loyalists and alarm from Democrats who forecast utter chaos. #election #foreignexchange #fxmarket #fxtrading #currencytrading #centralbanks

The Democratic Party is understandably focused on the election in November. But taking a longer term perspective provides some insights into the upcoming election. Even if the democrats win in November (which in my assessment is slightly more likely than not although there remains a small but not insignificant probability that the winner is neither Trump nor Biden), a look at the situation in 2027 and beyond is pretty dire. In 2015, you might recall that many analysts were saying that the Republican Party was in decline - that their voters were dying out. Others, myself among them, believed that the lines were being redrawn as democrats became more hawkish under Clinton and Republicans turned away from free-trade under Trump. Fast forward to today and, with this piece by John Burn-Murdoch in the Financial Times, you can see that it is the democrats who are losing their traditional voters (lots of great data in here from Ismail White and Chryl Laird). This has real consequences for 2027, but also provides some insights into why Biden is going to struggle so much in November. And why, if Trump weren’t his opponent, he would almost certainly lose. Even as you manage the short term, you can’t lose sight of the long-term. Taking this broader perspective, going to 30,000 foot, can tell you something vital for the now. It also makes it more likely that you’re still in business in 5 years. Wickett Advisory #geopoliticalrisk #executivecoaching #professionalwomen https://on.ft.com/3uYDOyX

The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows an exceptionally tight race in the seven key swing states that will define this election. Here's what the map looks like according to that survey, with everything under a 1% margin listed as a toss-up. If that poll were to come to pass exactly we'd be talking about an election that wouldn't be called on election night. In several states, if it's tight enough, recount margins could even be in play. In several of these states, we're seeing early votes come in. There are a lot of tea leaves to read. Republicans are practically giddy about early vote numbers in Nevada, which as the Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston writes are outperforming in the heavily-Republican rural areas while Democrats are lagging in their traditional Las Vegas/Clark County firewall. The GOP is also happy about North Carolina's early vote, with home-state GOP Senator Thom Tillis on Bloomberg Television overnight predicting a Trump win by a similar margin as his 1 percentage point win in 2020. Republicans also put a lot of stock into predictive markets, which keep surging for Trump. In more liquid markets around the world, the so-called "Trump trade" is flowing accordingly. But as the great Lee Corso likes to say... not so fast my friend. Because there are signs of strength for Kamala Harris too. If you're the Harris campaign, what you're looking at is a pronounced gender gap among some of those early voters. Polls show a stark gap where men are backing Trump more and women going more for Harris. That would generally be the expectation, but it looks even more stark this year. There are a number of reasons for this, not least of which the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision on abortion and subsequent restrictive actions in conservative-controlled states. At the same time, there are signs that men (particularly younger men) have drifted rightward in recent years. Yet all things being equal, it's not equal. That's because men and women don't vote in equal numbers. Women vote more. Do some math with me: if you have a state where women are voting for Harris by a 10-point margin and men are voting for Trump also by 10, Harris will almost certainly win, as women traditionally out vote men 52-48 or somewhere thereabouts. If that has exacerbated to Harris winning women by 15 and Trump winning men by 15... Harris's win margin increases a little. Yet in many states in the early vote, women are voting more. For example, in Michigan, women account for a full 57% of early/absentee ballot requests. Atop all that, a giant caveat: Early votes may be momentum, but it may just be cannibalizing your election day vote. And thus, mean little in the grand scheme of things. All that is to say: there's an intense uncertainty less than two weeks from election day. You can read into the early vote any number of indicators and dream or panic accordingly. What we do know: It's very very close. And it may take days to know for sure.

**The Harris-Walz Choice: Strategic and Progressive Partnership** Kamala Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as her vice-presidential candidate provides a stark contrast to J.D. Vance’s campaign approach. Harris's decision reflects a commitment to progressive values and a strategic electoral strategy. Here’s why this choice matters for business owners and professionals: 1. **Policy Alignment**: Tim Walz’s focus on healthcare reforms and climate change initiatives aligns perfectly with Harris’s progressive values. 2. **Experience in Governance**: Walz’s extensive governance experience complements Harris’s background, offering a solid base for effective leadership. 3. **Electoral Strategy**: Walz's popularity in Minnesota, a critical battleground state, can be pivotal in swinging the election in Harris’s favor. 4. **Inclusive Leadership**: Both Harris and Walz advocate for inclusive policies, promoting equity and justice, critical for galvanizing progressive support. 5. **Public Service Commitment**: Their combined years of public service emphasize a dedication to governance and community engagement. **Contrasting Vance’s Strategy** Understanding Vance’s differing strategy offers insight into the 2024 political landscape: 1. **Populist Appeal**: Vance leans into populist rhetoric, aiming to attract voters discontent with the establishment. 2. **Running Mate Selection**: Unlike Harris, Vance’s choice focuses on consolidating a specific voter base. 3. **Economic Positioning**: Vance promotes economic nationalism and industrial revitalization, diverging from Harris’s broader progressive agenda. 4. **Electoral Dynamics**: Vance targets states with strong populist sentiments, contrasting with Harris’s focus on progressive turnout. 5. **Contrast in Vision**: This highlights the starkly different futures the electorate might choose between progressive and populist pathways. **Implications for Business Owners** 1. **Uniting the Democratic Base**: Harris’s choice aims to unify the Democratic Party, which could impact regulatory and economic environments. 2. **Appealing to Swing Voters**: Walz’s moderate appeal might attract undecided voters, potentially stabilizing policy changes. 3. **Policy Synergy**: Their combined expertise offers a robust agenda, likely influencing sectors like healthcare, climate change, and economic reform. 4. **Strategic Geographic Focus**: Their strategy focuses on pivotal states, which could shift electoral results and subsequent business climates. 5. **Differing Visions**: The election’s outcome could substantially impact business strategies and economic policies in the years to come. **Next steps**: Maximize your financial health by understanding tax-saving strategies. Reach out to Together CFO for expert advice. Set up a call using this **[link](https://lnkd.in/gAa4dwUG.