Tyndall Partnerships的动态

?? The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve has a statutory mandate of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. A tool in their box is their influence on interest rates. ?? According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut on December 18 is 95.4%. That would put the new rate somewhere between 425-450bps. ?? In November, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics had the unemployment rate at 4.2% which is lower than prior spikes this summer. According to that same report, health care, leisure, hospitality, government, and social assistance employment trended up while retail trade jobs are on the decline. The number of part time employed for economic reason is up 500,000 from the prior year meaning people were being employed part time when they would normally be employed full time. For reference, the pre-pandemic rate of unemployment was 3.5% ?? In November, the CPI-U showed inflation at 2.7% over the past 12 months. 2% or less is what the Federal Reserve would like to see. ?? Based on current conditions and projections for 2025, it is reasonable to concur that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates tomorrow by 25bps with the intent to provide a boost to lending and credit. It is also likely that they will stay conservative with rate cuts through 2025 pending the changes in the new Executive Administration's fiscal policies. ?? A 25bps rate cut can help commercial real estate holders as they seek appraisals for refinancing or for purchasing new assets. It can also help with cash flow on adjustable rate deals allowing for more cash to be put back into projects that grow the NOI and enhance the value. ??♀? For folks outside real estate, it can mean a company can find less expensive capital and possibly bring part-time workers back to full time. Typically, more employment brings greater demand for goods and services which increases the need for employees to fill those needs. ?? The Chicago Mercantile Exchange does a great job in this video of explaining the outlook for 2025 and how the US is not alone in its need to curb inflation. #cmegroup #interestrates #commercialrealestate #federalreserve

With a new year underway, the drumbeat of higher yields may offer an appealing opportunity to investors. My colleague Jeff MacDonald, Head of Fixed Income Strategies, examines how the policy priorities of the incoming administration and a favorable environment for the Federal Reserve may shape the fixed income landscape in 2025. #market

?? This does not look good! ?? I have encountered numerous situations in the past where certain financial assets indicated that trouble is brewing whilst the majority of investors just did not pay attention. ?? Usually, bond markets are very good at spotting problems whereas equity investors tend to ignore the warning signs for a while. The simple reason is that fixed income investors are usually more risk-averse than the typically always bullish stock trader. ?? To me, UK 10-year Gilt yields trading at the highest level since 2008 and higher than during the infamous 'Truss moment' tells me that UK financial markets are beginning to loose confidence in the Labour government which appears to stumble from one disaster into another. The problem is not isolated to the UK though as US 30-year yields are looking to break through the 5% level, which should have alarm bells going off for stock markets. I reckon, they will only pay attention once the WSJ runs a first page headline on that. Investors' expectations for future rate cuts have moderated a lot since the cutting cycle started. Markets are currently expecting almost no further cuts this year. And this sets a very unusual tone this early in the rate-cut cycle. As discussed here often, I believe we will experience a second inflation wave over the next 18 months and together with fiscal pressures, this could easily lead to an unsightly mess in government bonds. ?? The direction of travel for bond markets is somewhat concerning considering the prevailing strong appetite especially for US and growth equities. Tech stocks used to struggle in similar environments in the past and I believe, nerves might get tested shortly... ?? ?? Might 2025 be the year where European value and EM finally make a roaring comeback? ?? Watch that space! #rates #markets #sp500 #UK #US #Europe #EM #value #growth

As the new year begins, rising yields could present attractive opportunities for investors. Jeff MacDonald, Head of Fixed Income Strategies, explores how the policy priorities of the incoming administration and a supportive Federal Reserve environment may influence the fixed income market in 2025.

Last month was rich in economic and political developments creating volatility in financial markets. Following the first rate cut of this cycle in September from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) which led investors to extrapolate aggressive further cuts into the future, data in October wrong-footed expectations by showing a stronger economic backdrop than seemed likely in the summer. Read more of Wise Funds Ltd's October update here: #multiasset #macro #monthlynewsletter #fundupdate

Entering into 2025 – what can investors expect from inflation and what is the impact for fixed income? Elida Rhenals, CFA Rhenals, Portfolio Manager at AXA Investment Managers explore what investors could expect from different regions across the year. https://lnkd.in/eFx-4BYN

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Market Watch, where we give you a quick rundown of last week’s market news in just 7 minutes: ?? Challenges to the UK economy remain. Following the BoE announcement came news that government borrowing in August rose to its highest monthly level since the pandemic in 2021. The increased borrowing saw national debt rise to 100% of the UK annual economic output – a level last seen in the 1960s. The news added to the pressure on the government ahead of October’s Budget, which Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already warned will be “painful”. ?? The Fed suggested concerns on the prospect of a weakening economy, and announced a supersized half-point cut in borrowing costs. The last time it cut by more than a quarter point was in 2020 when Covid-19 was ripping through the global economy. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gCdRgyrr

In his latest article, Brad Dunn discusses the current dynamism of global yield curves and the potential pitfalls for investors. While there is still much to be positive about as a new year begins, “bear steepening” yield curves could pose challenges for asset prices if the trend continues. Successful fixed income investors in 2025 will need to be flexible, nimble and patiently wait for opportunity. ? Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/gQTRWXya

Market Commentary U.S. equity markets advanced during June, with performance once again concentrated in mega-cap companies. This was driven by softening inflation metrics, resilient corporate earnings, and growth prospects in artificial intelligence (AI). Additionally, bond yields responded positively to softening inflation, with rates decreasing across mid- and long-term maturities, benefiting longer-duration government credit the most. Portfolio Update The Fund's NAV in EUR terms increased by 0.6% in June, raising our first-half 2024 performance to 3.1%. Assuming no emergencies, we expect to finish 2024 close to our 6.5% annual target. We are pleased with the performance of most strategies in our portfolio and continue to slightly reduce some liquid private debt investments to increase exposure to arbitrage. We anticipate significantly more volatility across equity, credit, currency, and commodity markets in the second half of 2024 due to uncertainties surrounding future U.S. economic policy triggered by the presidential elections and the pace of the Fed’s future rate cuts amid uneven inflation data. In June, we closed a European regulatory arbitrage strategy on differing tax rates on dividends and a UK bridge credit strategy. The former has performed very well since inception, but its seasonality, due to the timing of dividend payments on European stocks, led us to seek a strategy with more consistent performance. We are also pleased with the UK bridge credit strategy's performance since inception and commend the manager’s conservative investment approach. However, the inherent risks of this strategy mean its risk-reward ratio has become somewhat less attractive to us. #hedgefunds #portfoliomanagement #arbitrage #interestrates #economy #inflation #fundperformance #markets

A concise summary of an eventful last week, providing context on the UK rate cuts, US Federal Reserve plans, US equities, and Japanese markets. The experience of exiting your business and the positive news that UK households are now saving more of their income. #financialadvice #informeddecisions #weekwatch