Tuan Nguyen, Ph.D的动态

Softer #job and #production data in Feb amid rising #recession concerns ?? Job openings and factory orders came in lower than expected on Tuesday, continuing to show signs of cooling overall economic demand that should work in the Federal Reserve's favor in fighting inflation. ?? Together with softer economic data released recently, the risk of a recession in the second half of the year in our base case has been rising. We believe the Fed should and will pause starting this summer to assess the full impact of its restrictive policy on the economy. ? There were 9.9M job openings in February, down from 10.5M in the prior month. That was equivalent to 1.67 openings available for every unemployed worker. Feb's number was almost 1.9. ? Job openings, a proxy for labor demand, has been one of the Federal Reserve's top targets for many months. While the downside surprise was a welcome sign, there remained substantial gap between demand and supply of labor compared to the firm labor market pre-pandemic. There were only around 1.2 job vacancies for each unemployed worker in 2019. ? If our forecast of a recession holds true in the second half of 2023, we should expect sharper declines in labor demand, following by more layoffs and higher unemployment rates. ? But until then, labor demand will continue to outweigh supply as the economy is poised to add more job gains. Our forecast for March's payroll number had been 220,000 before Tuesday's data came out. Thus, the cooler-than-expected data should add more downside risks to our forecast. ? In a separate report from the Census Bureau, orders for manufactured and industrial goods dropped 0.7% in February. Jan's number was revised downward to a 2.1% decline from 1.6% earlier. ? The data came out amid increasing signs of a recession within the manufacturing sector in recent months. Key indicators such as our manufacturing index, the ISM's manufacturing index and durable goods orders have all shown continuing weaknesses. ? Friday's manufacturing job gains will certainly be another key indicator to see whether we are able to make the call for a manufacturing recession underway or not. There were 4,000 less jobs for the sector in February.?