Ridley Tony的动态

This poll, demonstration and experiment could not have gone better if I had planned it ?? . The question and format demonstrate a number of practical examples and issues (yes, fallibility) with surveys, polls and group opinion-seeking. Here are just a few for consideration and reflection before conducting or accepting opinion polls as an authoritative view on anything, let alone safety, security, risk or resilience issues, including forecasts. 1. Over 10,000 have seen this poll, with only 351 (so far) casting a vote. That is just a 3.5% engagement rate and a 3.36% click-through rate. This is a very important statistic and declaration. That is, many will be asked, but only a few will contribute. The 'dark figures' of those too busy, scared, distracted, conceited or unrelated count too. Because they may be better informed, more accurate or the 'real' experts. 2. Those who have contributed are a mixed bag of human emotions, experience, ideology and thoughts, which vary from the time of first submission to when they cast their vote(s). This means the 'community' is not a single view at a single time with all the same information. Therefore, information asymmetry taints all results. 3. I deliberately set out to taint the results (sorry ??). Sneaky me. ?? I posted related materials on either side of the survey to influence your thoughts, opinions and, ultimately, your vote. This framing, influence and coercion happen all day in real life, especially with marketing. I deliberately raised one issue while subliminally showing you other content, varying from fact, opinion, disinformation and bias, narrow views on related topics. Thus, influencing results. 4. Some people will, like, care, can or are familiar with polling; therefore they contribute. Others would never contribute if their life depended upon it. This means, you keep getting the opinions of the few (regulars), not the many, nor maybe those that count. Thank you to those that cast a vote. The results are highly valuable and you are particularly valuable because you participated and contributed. If you want to know more about this, or get a broader, more detailed perspective, I recommend the following: Read Nate Silver's book on the Signals and the Noise. Follow it with Phil Tetlock's books on Superforecasting and then read Dan Arielly's work on irrationality. Dan Gardner: Risk. Tim Hartford: Undercover economist, Data Detective. Malcom Gladwell: What the dog saw and Outliers. Don Tappscott: Wikinomics and MacroWikinomics.Bobby Duffy: Perils of Perception, and anything on UK Crime Surveys analysis by Criminologists. And of course, anything Nicholas Taleb has written. #risk #risks #enterpriserisk #enterprisesecurityriskmanagement #intelligence #threatlintelligence #riskmanagement #riskanalysis #riskassessment #riskmanagementframework #operationalriskmanagement #projectriskmanagement #projectrisk #operationalresilience #resilience #operationalrisk #riskintelligence #governance