Thrivent Asset Management的动态

Transcript

Inflation is lower, the rate of change is lower, but the prices are still very, very high. The lower to middle tiers are struggling a little bit. There's also some seasonality with inflation you've seen in the last few years. Early in 2024, we had this inflation scare and 1st 3 months of the year and we could absolutely see that again in the beginning of 2025. Now that the Fed has started cutting rates, Kent, what are your expectations for for the Fed for the rest of this year and going into next year too? So the Fed just began they're cutting cycle. 50 basis point cut, that's the first reduction in the Fed funds rate in over four years. So they start cutting rates, though from what the Fed viewed as a very restrictive level. And the Fed funds rate is still above where anyone who believes the neutral rate really is. So from that perspective, there's still a lot of room for the Fed to continue recalibrating rates to lower levels. We're likely to see probably two more 25 basis point cuts this year, possibly of 50 in November depending on what the labor market looks like. And then in 2025, the feds. Dot plot right now is showing for cuts or 100 basis points of easing into 2025 as the market in alignment with those views relatively aligned. But it's still pricing in more cuts than the projections that the Fed put out. The fetish looking for four cuts in 2024 followed by four more in 2025. The market is closer to five this year and five more in 2025. Give the Fed does cut less than expected, you could see, you know. Trade markets react to that, maybe push up short term rates a little bit in the broader market, could have some indigestion.