TCW的动态

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????Financial markets have quickly reacted to U.S. election results, but it will take time to enact proposed policies that could range from business-friendly to inflationary. Learn more on TCW's latest economic outlook with Generalist Portfolio Manager Ruben Hovhannisyan. https://tcwgrp.com/7sd2ns

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Transcript

One of the closest elections in the United States is now over, and the people of the United States have made their choice. Most of us are currently busy digesting the outcome of the elections, but as we know, the future is always now in financial markets, and financial markets seem to be very quick to price in the full impact of the policies on which the winning party campaigned on. So what are we seeing priced in? As of the morning after the election, we're seeing higher growth regime, higher rates, higher inflation and higher dollar. Stocks are up sharply, interest rates are higher significantly and inflation break even rates are higher significantly as well. We're also seeing sectors that would benefit from consolidations and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) outperform the market, as well on the expectations that the regulatory regime as it relates to mergers and acquisitions will be lighter under the new administration. While we believe that certain elements of the new policies will certainly be business-friendly, and may potentially lead to higher growth, certain elements of the policies will perhaps lead to higher inflation at the margin. We also believe that the impact on the economy will depend on the scope of the policies being implemented, as opposed to the campaign promises, will depend on the timing of implementation, and of course importantly, will depend on the shape of the economy at the time those policies are being implemented. We know from experience that the actual policies being enacted are typically milder versions of campaign promises. So it would be reasonable to expect that the tariffs and immigration policies that will be enacted would be milder versions. Also, there are some 2nd order consequences and interactions between different pieces of policies that don't appear to be priced in, at least not as of this morning. And importantly, we don't think political cycles can outrun economic cycles. And while the policies of new administration may warrant higher yields at the margin, at the end of the day rates will depend the rate regime and interest rates will depend on the underlying economic outlook. We at TCW believed that the economy is in late cycle. And if we're right then it may not necessarily be clear how much of tariffs and corporations will be able to pass on to consumers, as opposed to absorbing those through profit margins, which would lead to weaker growth. And therefore the impact of weaker growth may actually be higher than the impact of higher inflation. We think we're seeing a little bit of a knee jerk reaction in the markets this morning with pricing in some parts of the markets not quite consistent with with each other. We at TCW has always remain intent on looking through the noise and adhering to our value discipline in positioning in our portfolios and of course, always looking for opportunities presented by the market.

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