The Wall Street Journal的动态

From Opinion: Xi’s economic plan amounts to foisting an economic growth plan that worked two decades ago onto a China and global economy that have changed considerably.

https://lnkd.in/da3fFnAU Xi Jinping and China's Techno-Industrial Drive MAY 28, 2024 Bonnie S. Glaser Tanner Greer China’s rate of economic growth has slowed markedly in recent years. According to Chinese government statistics, the economy grew by 5.2% in 2023. There are numerous challenges: weak consumer confidence, mounting local government debt, and a real estate market that used to fuel the economy, but is now in a prolonged downturn. Many economists, including some in China, advocate that the government stimulate consumer spending. It is clear, however, that Xi Jinping is pursuing a different strategy. And this was quite clear when Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report last March.

The Chinese economy only grew 5% last year and the country faces a number of challenges to it’s economic growth potential and this article in The Economist discusses Xi Jinping’s potentially controversial plans to escape stagnation #stagnation #China #chineseeconomy #economicgrowth #EconomicRecovery #economy #economics #GlobalEconomy https://lnkd.in/dQ_d9w2Q

In a policy change that could potentially be a significant game-changer for the Chinese economy, China announced that it will sell 1.0 trillion Yuan ($138 billion) in ultra-long-term bonds to stimulate economic growth. While this move may exert some pressure on the Yuan in the short-term, it could also indicate that a major shift in economic policy will be announced at the upcoming Politburo congress in July.

Have we seen the end of China’s economic miracle? Take a look at the fourth summary report in a series of roundtables by the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis about the reasons for the slowdown, whether it can be averted, and where China might be headed. #China #CenterForChinaAnalysis #Economy #EconomicMiracle #XiJinping https://lnkd.in/gny928B6

To examine the myriad factors behind China’s recent economic slowdown and, more importantly, consider where China might be headed, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized the fourth in their series of closed-door roundtables. Held in April 2024 and conducted under the Chatham House Rule, the roundtable brought together leading experts on the Chinese economy for a discussion focused on the following questions: What is the mix of determinants — cyclical, structural, and political — for slower economic growth in China? How much can China’s recent economic woes be attributed to Beijing’s own policy mistakes, and how much to tensions between China’s hybrid Leninist political regime and the dynamism of a market economy? What are the potential political, social, and geopolitical consequences of the slowdown? If the slowdown continues, or even worsens, could the leadership’s priorities shift? If so, what policy measures or structural reforms might reverse the slowdown and preempt some of the broader consequences?

China's Economic Journey: From Mao to Market China's economic history is a tale of dramatic transformation. Post-1949, under Mao Zedong, China adopted a centrally-planned economy, prioritizing heavy industry and collective agriculture, which led to economic volatility, including the disastrous Great Leap Forward. The real pivot came with Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the late 1970s. Deng introduced the "Socialist Market Economy," blending state control with market mechanisms, allowing private enterprise, and opening up to foreign investment. This era marked the start of China's economic boom, with the country becoming the "world's factory," leveraging its vast labor force. By the 1990s and 2000s, China's entry into the WTO in 2001 further integrated it into the global economy, significantly boosting its trade and GDP growth. The rise was meteoric, with China becoming the world's second-largest economy by nominal GDP by the 2010s, behind only the United States. However, recent years have seen challenges including debt levels, a real estate bubble, demographic shifts, and trade tensions with the US. The government has responded with policies aimed at innovation, reducing reliance on real estate, and transitioning towards a consumption-based economy. Today, China's economic narrative is one of cautious optimism, balancing between state-directed initiatives and market liberalization, all while navigating global economic currents. Its history is not just one of growth but of profound economic reorientation, reflecting its complex journey from isolation to global economic powerhouse.

China’s economy is showing signs of strength. It won’t last. These key takeaways from our latest China Economic Outlook explain why. Download the free report now. https://lnkd.in/eZaXaYwg #chinaeconomy #chinagrowth

??MERICS Economic Indicators - Q1 2024: Max J. Zenglein, Fran?ois Chimits and Alexander Brown analyze the latest economic data, assess the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and discuss implications for Beijing’s industrial policy ambitions.??Key insights:? ? ??Despite improvements, China’s overall economic picture remains complex, with industrial production and manufacturing investments driving growth, rather than consumer spending. ??Internationally, China faces scrutiny over its industrial output and dominance in green technology, which could lead to trade tensions.? ??The ongoing real estate crisis poses one of the largest challenges for the economy. ??Nevertheless, the government continues to eschew major stimulus measures, signaling confidence in the ongoing economic transition and its long-term strategy.? ? Read a free excerpt here: https://lnkd.in/eS8zPMWC ? To stay informed about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, and the implications for Beijing’s industrial policy ambitions, become a MERICS Member to read the full version and other exclusive MERICS Member products. Learn more about our membership program here: https://lnkd.in/dxd5wF3

BofA’s downgrade of China’s growth outlook raises important concerns about the country’s economic health. With consumer confidence low and the property sector struggling, China's economy faces significant headwinds. Beijing’s cautious approach to monetary easing isn't helping, and this could have global consequences. China is a major driver of global growth. When its economy slows, the effects are felt worldwide—especially in markets dependent on Chinese demand. To avoid further drag on global growth, it’s crucial that China addresses these challenges with more decisive actions. As we watch these developments, it’s clear that China’s economic trajectory will be a key factor in shaping global economic trends in the near future.