The Atlantic的动态

Allan Lichtman is “known for correctly forecasting the victor of all but one presidential election since 1984,” writes @GiladEdelman. How can he be so good at predicting their outcome? "One possible answer is that, in fact, he isn’t."

Many January 6 rioters have been held together in a wing of a D.C. jail—and become more extreme. Lauren Ober and Hanna Rosin tell the story of how a nonviolent man with a mischievous streak emerged from jail even more willing to fight for the MAGA cause.

Not long ago, dogs were valued primarily for the jobs they performed, such as hunting, herding livestock, and guarding property, all of which required boundless energy and a wariness of strangers. But “as more city dwellers adopt pets, and cultural shifts have led dogs and people to spend more time inside, some behaviors that made dogs appealing to our ancestors have become maladaptive,” Brian Hare and Vanessa Woods write. A dog wary of strangers is tough to take for a walk, for instance, and gets consigned to a fenced-in yard where it can’t spend its energy. https://lnkd.in/euXzY9Br “Dogs have gone from working all day and sleeping outside to relaxing on the couch and sleeping in our beds,” the authors write. “Thousands of years of domestication couldn’t prepare dogs for this abrupt transition.” Dog owners have attempted to correct for this by picking a hypoallergenic breed, a smart breed, a breed that is supposedly good with children—but the main thing a breed usually tells you is what your dog will look like. “Service dogs are the exception and the answer to the domestication puzzle,” Hare and Woods write. “For more than a century, service dogs have had to sit quietly in a café, calmly negotiate the stress and noise of urban life, and interact gently with children. They can do this not because they are smarter than pet dogs, but because ... service dogs are uniquely friendly. Unlike most pet dogs, service dogs are attracted to strangers, even as puppies. And increasing friendliness seems to have changed these dogs’ biology, just as it did thousands of years ago.” “We believe these changes are the early signs of a third wave in dog domestication,” the authors continue. “If dog lovers shift their demand from a dog’s hair color and tail length to their comfort with strangers and new places, this friendliness could quickly ripple through the population and become amplified with each successive generation … A breeding program that prioritizes a friendly temperament could show results within just a few decades.” In the meantime, as the third wave of domestication gets under way, humans must continue caring for the pets they have now. ??: Fine Art Images / Heritage Images / Getty

“Voters consistently say they trust Trump more to handle the economy than they do Kamala Harris. Why? Perhaps because, when Trump speaks about the economy, he sounds like a child,” David A. Graham writes:

Iran's supreme leader wants neither peace nor war with Israel, but the moment of choice has come, Arash Azizi writes:

"July 4, 2026, will mark the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence," Beverly Gage writes. "So far, the semiquin is shaping up as an embarrassingly accurate reflection of America’s identity crisis."

The early-aughts competition series “Making the Band” laundered Sean “Diddy” Combs’s open hostility as an eccentric style of artist management, writes Hannah Giorgis. Two decades on, it’s disturbing to revisit:

Silicon Valley’s main characters are entering the culture war and bringing their enormous fan bases with them, Kaitlyn Tiffany writes. https://lnkd.in/gV-zF7Xh Some prominent venture capitalists, such as Sequoia Capital’s Shaun Maguire or David Sacks of Craft Ventures, have been tweeting their support of Donald Trump and amplifying X owner Elon Musk’s extreme political opinions—an example of, as Paul Krugman recently noted, the “tech bro style in American politics,” Tiffany writes. “It is largely defined by a flat, good-versus-evil worldview. The good? Free speech, which Democrats want to eradicate. The evil? Immigration, which is a plot by Democrats to allow violent criminals into the country and steal the election.” A “vibe shift” is under way in Silicon Valley, Michael Gibson, a VC and former vice president of grants at the Thiel Foundation, told Tiffany. Eight years ago, Peter Thiel was the odd man out when he announced his support of Trump. “This year, J. D. Vance, a Thiel acolyte and former VC himself, is Trump’s running mate.” “If Trump wins, there is a nonzero chance that he would give some of these people major roles in his second administration—Musk is already lobbying for one, with apparent success,” Tiffany explains. Many of these venture capitalists are also holding on to huge bets on cryptocurrency. “They fear—or enjoy suggesting—that [Kamala] Harris is plotting to destroy the industry entirely.” The labor movement is also an issue. “During and after the pandemic, contractors and employees of major tech companies expressed dissatisfaction en masse,” and some unionized, Tiffany writes. “Meanwhile, the federal government has pursued antitrust action and bipartisan efforts to regulate social media, while state governments have won huge settlements for workers. This has been a major shock: Silicon Valley was celebrated by previous Democratic administrations.” “Now some tech leaders are being treated like villains—which seems to have led some of them to embrace the label,” Tiffany continues. Even if Harris wins, it is “significant that a number of influential—and very rich—men are eager to go against the grain.” ??: Ben Kothe / The Atlantic. Sources: Steve Jennings / Getty; John Lamparski / Getty; Jim Watson / Getty.

Many people feel helpless about threats to democracy, Anne Applebaum writes. That's precisely the feeling that autocratic movements want to cultivate—but you can do something. A citizen’s guide to defending the 2024 election: