View from the right

4 July 2024 will go down in history as possibly the worst day in the long history of the Conservative and Unionist Party. The Tories have been cut down to a staggering 121 seats, 44 lower than in 1997, until yesterday their worst election result of modern times. It was a night that witnessed countless ‘Portillo Moments’, as Tory big beasts such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt & former Prime Minister Liz Truss were spectacularly unseated across the country. ?

Meanwhile, the other party of the right, Reform UK, significantly contributed to Tory woes, securing over 4 million votes and a foothold in the House of Commons. This will be considered a strong result by Leader Nigel Farage and Chairman Richard Tice, both of whom were elected. However, there will be some frustration that 15% of the national vote share has only been converted into a handful of seats. Expect Farage, alongside the Liberal Democrats, to push for electoral reform over the coming months.

The damage done by Reform is clear when the vote share is examined. Conservative support fell most heavily in the Leave voting constituencies they were defending in North England and the Midlands. Subsequently, the advances the Conservatives made in 2019 in Brexit-voting, red wall seats have been completely reversed within a single parliamentary term. Such a dramatic switch in Tory fortunes in these regions saw Reform finish second in a staggering 98 seats across England. Although it should be noted that these seats are historically Labour heartlands, that voted Conservative purely to ‘Get Brexit Done’ last time around. The fact that many of these voters have abandoned the Tories for Reform instead of returning to Labour, may create a headache for the government in the long run.

The task for both the Tories and Reform will now be uniting the right of centre vote. Whether this involves the unlikely outcome of some form deal between the Tories and Reform, or an ideological battle between the two remains to be seen. What we can say with certainty, however, is that the right of centre vote in the UK is far stronger than the seat count suggests. Were one to combine the Reform and Conservative vote shares, the total is actually 4 points higher than Labour’s vote share. This suggests that although Labour’s supermajority is broad, it may not be that deep. Keir Starmer has won 411 seats with just 34% of the vote, which is a historically distorted result. This share is far lower than its showing during Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, an election where the Conservative Party notably did not have to contest with another prominent right-wing faction. If the right could be united, the path back to power might not be quite as long as it seems today.

Crucial to the realignment of the British right will be the result of the Conservatives upcoming leadership contest. Does the party choose to attempt to regain the centre-ground from the rejuvenated Liberal Democrats and Labour with a leader like Jeremy Hunt or James Cleverly or more closely align with Reform under a Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch? The importance of this contest really cannot be understated, the next leader and the decisions they take will define the future of the Conservative Party. Now that Rishi Sunak has officially resigned, we can expect candidates to chuck their hats into the ring almost immediately.

Farage will be watching this contest intently from the wings. He claims last night’s result was ‘just the beginning’ for Reform, promising to hound the Tories and become to main voice of opposition. We shall see if his presence in Parliament spurs the Conservatives to pursue a more populist strategy, or whether more moderate voices prevail.

Opinion piece by,

Ben Walker

Ben joined JBP in Autumn 2022 and currently holds the position of Senior Account Executive within the Public Affairs team. He works with a variety of clients, specialising in transport and digital infrastructure. Ben enjoys engaging with parliamentarians and decision makers across Westminster.