Specialty Capital的动态

Specialty Capital News & Views In this week's write up we wanted to touch on two main topics as we close out the month end. Inflation data in July and Enova's 2nd Quarter results. The Fed's preferred gauge for inflation PCE came up 0.1% in June and YoY PCE increased to 2.5%.?Friday's report also showed consumer spending slowing down a bit alongside easy?pricing pressures and a cooling labor market.?Earlier this month, we had CPI come in lower by 0.1% in June and the annual rate came down to 3%, which is the lowest annual rate since early?2021.? The Fed is meeting July 30-31 and our view is that there will be no rate cut this week.?However, we are seeing the futures market pricing in a 100% probability?of a cut in September, with some expecting at least 2 cuts by year end.?It is an election year and we've seen a wild July so a lot could?change by then. Enova had another bombastic quarter with a whopping?$918mm in SMB originations (29% increase YoY).?? -Charge offs SMB came up to 4.8% up from 4.7%?last quarter (in line up a tad from last year).?30 day? -SMB delinquencies down from last quarter and last year to 7.5% Some key takes from the Q&A on the earnings call - ENVA doesn't?see competition as a threat with no new entrants entering the space?"We haven't?seen any of our competitors get particularly more aggressive" - They are seeing more higher quality customers coming in on the SMB side? - Online marketing / TV?is helping and pushing in more business Our thoughts? ENVA has the largest share of SMB financing in the Revenue Based Finance space and has slowly cut brokers yet continues to grow its market share.?Even with a Cost of Capital that has gone up by over 120 bps YoY, they are pushing out more money with origination volume up over 15% and their portfolio is performing with low charge off and delinquency rates. Portfolio thoughts We continue to see wild offerings from our competitors in the 2nd and 3rd position space and Tier 1 players continue to buy deep to pick up market share due to the competitiveness of the market Happy Funding!

Specialty Capital News & Views In this week's write up we wanted to focus on the inflation numbers released a few days ago as well as the recent litigation in the revenue based finance landscape. CPI was released on Wednesday and came in hotter than expected with annual inflation up 3.5% YoY (vs 3.4%?expected) and Core CPI was up to 3.8% (vs 3.7% expected). This is the third monthly gain.?Energy and shelter was responsible for half the rise in inflation.?Services sector continues to remain strong and was up last month, consumers want to spend.?Goods at grocery stores remained unchanged.? Future prices for FED rates are showing 2 cuts now instead of 3 and the likelihood of a cut in June has gone down to ~18%.? ? Our view on inflation is pretty much unchanged, we believe that while inflation has come down tremendously from its peak, it makes sense for it to be stubborn at these levels.?Inflation is one of the most difficult indicators?to forecast and we put it in "the too hard box".?We also dont think month to month changes should be put under the microscope. We use it as a metric to think about how consumers are acting with their pockets and how it can affect our pricing in the short and medium term.? Overall, it seems that the services sector remains strong, so we remain aggressive in SIC.?We look for long TIB and great cash flow.?On the other hand, housing remains stagnant, hence higher shelter costs. With folks not moving and staying put, we've seen business in the furniture SIC struggle and we have tightened up in this sector - we believe defaults will increase.? In other news, besides the NY AG going after companies with shady practices in the revenue based finance space, the Southern District of NY and Department of Justice has opened up scope and are?looking more into the line of credit frauds and the lack of abiding by the reconciliation provision. We believe that there will be more indictments in the following months.?Overall, this will bode well for our industry. Happy Funding!

Key US Events This Week: 1. #Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 2. S&P Global Services #PMI data - Thursday 3. July Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 4. July New Home Sales data - Friday 5. Fed Chair #Powell Speaks - Friday 6. Total of 4 Fed speaker events this week The S&P 500 is now just 2% away from a new all time high. Markets have gone from entering correction territory to eying new all time highs in just days. https://lnkd.in/dS_hcg6j

#investing This week marks the first full week of earnings season, with 47 S&P 500 companies set to report. CIO Larry Adam provides insight into this and other market-moving headlines in Up & Adam. #stockmarket #genemelamud #financialadvisorlargo

?????? ??4 ???? 2024 ??????????????: ?????????? ?????????????????????? Revenue grew by 9% YoY but declined by 11% compared to the QoQ. Despite the QoQ decline in revenue, GPM improvement boosted gross profit to LKR 586Mn, reflecting a 139% YoY increase. Finance income surged by over 100% YoY to LKR 134Mn, it experienced a significant 71% decline QoQ due to a drop in dividend income. Profit for the quarter reached LKR 345Mn, a 347% YoY increase yet a 58% decrease QoQ. Fiscal year (FY) 2024. Revenue increased by 18% YoY, and gross profit jumped by 63% thanks to the improved GPM that reached 17%. Furthermore, with the improvement in dividend income, profits for FY 2024 recorded a significant 91% increase to LKR 2.27Bn. Segment Performance: Interestingly, while LMF's powdered milk and liquid milk segments witnessed a QoQ rise in revenue, all segments saw a decline in profits during Q4. This suggests potential cost pressures impacting the profitability of these segments despite increased sales volume.

When examining REIT financials as an indicator of broader market performance, it's essential to look beyond the same-store results commonly reported. For instance, total same-store NOI might show a decrease of 1.5% year-over-year, but within that, there are specific submarkets experiencing a decline as steep as -16.6%. Across various REITs, there are dozens (if not hundreds) of sites with double-digit % NOI decline. It impacts them far less due to their diversification. It's important to note that these are among the best operators in the market. Which is why I want to illustrate the year-over-year impact if someone had purchased a site last year with that same level of NOI performance. Additionally, if the hypothetical site had been purchased five years ago, it would be performing exceptionally well, with NOI likely up by 30% since then. It's a matter of timing.

#investing Market participants are slated to receive a bevy of reports this week, including the Consumer Price and Producer Price Indices. CIO Larry Adam provides insight into this and other market-moving headlines in Up & Adam. #GeneMelamud #CFP #markets

Our portfolio review as of February 2024: +60% returns after 5 months of inception Going ahead into March, I expect the portfolio to continue its growth albeit at a slower pace than January and February. This is due to hotter-than-expected US inflation data which causes doubt on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the the Feds this year. Read the full article here: https://shorturl.at/CISW7

Stock Market did not like the economic survey, Sensex-Nifty crashed before the budget #bse #Budget #budget2024 #crashed #DomesticStockMarket #economic #KotakMahindraBank #market #Nifty #nse #RelianceIndustries #sensex #SensexNifty #Sharemarket #stock #survey

Today is the busiest day of this quarter's earnings season, with 61 S&P 500 companies set to report their results. CIO Larry Adam provides insight into this and other market-moving headlines in Up & Adam.