Shawn Stigler的动态

There's been a lot of discussion lately, & understandably so, on the lack of liquidity for LPs & what reckoning that may bring for fund managers (secondary fund anyone?!?). Many have characterized the IPO or M&A markets as "lukewarm" at best & before I saw this chart, I would have agreed. But this data surprised me. The number of M&A exits hasn't grown vs. the post-COVID mania of '21 & '22, but it's not declining either. The growth in exits in '23 & '24 is still ~2x or ~3x vs. '19 & '20! According to Peter Walker, of the ~42k startups currently on Carta only 288 were acquired in 2024, an exit rate of just 0.7% ??. It's still just as difficult as ever out there, but there are reasons for optimism & a case to be made for resiliency if you look hard enough.

Global VC exit value in Q1 sank to a low not seen since 2016 #Cautiousoptimism was a good description of #venturemarket sentiment going into 2024. In most cases, though, it has been, "new year, same #VCmarket." #Optimism is inherent to #venture, and a single quarter won't change that, but Q1 did highlight some remaining chasms. By the end of the year, 2024 will look like a #bettermarket than what we saw in 2023. Though, taking a #realisticapproach to expectations for the year is important. #Globaldealcounts may look relatively strong, but?#dealvalue continued to trail off?and Q1 finished more than $100 billion #lower than the #peaks we saw a couple of years ago. This higher-but-lower #dichotomy points to a continued high level of #extensionfinancings — #smallerdeals building runway for companies—and not necessarily a gauge for new money interest. Other concerning datapoints are easy to pick out. #Fundraising and #exits were, by most standards, #poor. #Globalexitvalue was the #lowest quarterly total since Q4 2016. Even in the US, where Reddit, Inc. and Astera Labs' #IPOs generated substantial #buzz, #totalexitvalue was less than $20 billion. https://lnkd.in/ei6szzv6

Interesting quick read by PitchBook discussing VC distributions that sheds light on the general lack of access to VC funding. It would but great to see how much of what was invested in those funds is based on investments not much more than bets made on IPOs that never materialized just like the 24 months prior to the DotBomb. COVID distraction stalled a lot of progress. The #svb fail and subsequent failures just made it worse. But with 100s of billions of dollars of dry powder sitting around, how much longer will investors wait to make it available? Will a good IPO showing in Q2 loosen things up? So much money idling that needs to be put to work. #ipo #vcfunding #vcfund https://lnkd.in/eEu-w8yc

?? Venture capital distributions hit a 14-year low. LPs are eager for cash returns, but recent figures disappoint. As IPO hopes rise, so do prospects for VC cash flow. ???? Read more: https://lnkd.in/dZR6Miqz #VentureCapital #IPOs

The shift to a declining interest rate environment should be a very good thing for the venture ecosystem. Historical data suggests a strong negative correlation between high interest rates and venture exits, implying that lower rates could kickstart the exit environment. We think liquidity will come back in full force in 2025 as a result. Here’s to thriving through the cycles! #VentureCapital #Liquidity #InterestRates #M&A #IPO

This is a nothing burger. VCs don't invest in pre-seed and seed stages therefore they don't impact those valuations. And this makes it sound like the seed stage valuations are holding steady and is a good thing. Not really, these stages are harder than ever to get funded. "VC valuations continued to slide from their peaks in 2021 and early 2022, with only pre-seed and seed deals bucking the trend. While median early-stage and late-stage valuations fell to their three- and five-year lows, respectively, an abundance of small funds competing for seed deals helped to keep prices up for companies in those categories."

The first two quarters of 2024 cemented troubling trends for the VC industry: A shortage of public offerings, definitive down rounds and fund launches drying up faster than a lake in Phoenix.?The IPO drought explains why VCs are coming up against a fundraising wall. The industry has collected $80.5 billion in capital commitments from LPs globally this year—on pace for a nine-year low—while the number of new VC funds is on track to reach only one-third of the 2021 peak by the end of the year.

#Secondaries | €3.7M in transaction volumes. Up to 3x returns. 1 year and a half. In early-stage and growth-stage investments,?liquidity?is often the elephant in the room. The allure of a potential 10x return is tantalizing, but traditional venture capital has always required patience—waiting for that long-awaited exit often takes?years. Yet, SeedBlink’s secondary market has surpassed?€3.7M in transaction volumes—giving investors a chance to exit early, with some seeing returns of 2.5x to 3x. This growth was driven by two distinct types of transactions:?Bulletin Board Secondaries?&?Secondaries in mature scale-ups or pre-IPO companies. This not only benefits investors looking for flexibility but also provides new entrants the opportunity to join exciting deals at various stages of company growth. Read the full article:?https://lnkd.in/dRjsKpmB

Cash is king — turning unicorns into realized gains. By Edouard Lingjaerde, Manager at Reference Capital. ?? Why it matters.?? Despite backing the next tech unicorn, VCs and LPs are increasingly focused on liquidity, measured by Distributions to Paid-In Capital (DPI). The influx of capital into venture capital from 2018-2023, driven by low interest rates, has shifted preferences towards funds demonstrating both performance and liquidity. With IPO windows closed and M&A muted, GPs face pressure to create liquidity, often opting for strategies like secondary markets, continuation funds, and private equity buyouts. This trend affects fund strategy, deployment pace, and the overall venture capital landscape, pushing funds to navigate tough market conditions and deliver returns efficiently. Read the full article on EUVC Insights! ?? https://buff.ly/3zuqZ14 #venturecapital #startupfunding #Europe #EUVCInsights

Key takeaways from 20VC pod with Mark Suster: 1. The current market conditions are vastly different from the overvaluations seen in 2021, with a correction that is expected to take several more years. 2. Venture capitalists need to be disciplined about entry prices and valuations, as irrational pricing can lead to poor returns. Founders Fund's strategy of investing in the top companies regardless of price may not be replicable for all investors. 3. Reserves and follow-on funding are crucial, as they allow VCs to support promising companies that may take longer to gain traction. However, VCs should be cautious about over-investing in "rocket ship" companies without sufficient traction. 4. Investing in hard tech and infrastructure sectors like space can be promising, but VCs need specialized expertise in these areas to be successful, as they are fundamentally different from software investments. https://lnkd.in/gzzNgK27