Scout Rock Capital LLC的动态

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing

Census data on multifamily starts is catching up to reality. Yesterday’s data release shows multifamily starts are not merely “normalizing,” but trending down, down, down towards early 2010s levels. In fact, multifamily starts (annualized and seasonally adjusted) are LESS THAN HALF what they were one year ago, according to the Census. That’s the biggest YoY drop since the Great Financial Crisis. And total starts in recent months are looking more like 2012-2013 than 2015-2019, registering below 300k. It’s just really, really, really difficult to start new conventional apartment projects right now. Why? 1) Rates are up, meaning debt is really expensive. 2) Lease-up rents are flat to down in most markets, meaning revenues can’t offset higher costs. 3) It’s cheaper to buy existing than build new right now, so development equity is harder to find right now. Meanwhile, probably every apartment developer in America is trying to raise capital off the story that anything starting now will complete into a much more favorable environment. Most investors likely buy that story, but they’re either not able or not willing to take that gamble into investment committee – especially if they think they can buy below replacement cost. (But will there be enough inventory buy at prices buyers want? That’s another question.) I always tell people that forecasting is an inexact science, but supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It’s just starts pushed forward 18-24 months. So there’s little doubt that supply in 2026-27 will be dramatically lower than 2023-24, and that could (barring a big change in the economy or black swan event) lead to a very different supply/demand environment than we see today. #multifamily #housing