Rustam Amin的动态

After 45 Years: The Impact of the Gaza War on the Israel–Egypt Peace Accord On the 45th anniversary of their peace agreement and against the backdrop of the protracted war in Gaza, relations between Israel and Egypt are being severely tested. How do the anchors of peace help both countries get through this challenging period, and what must they do to emerge from it stronger? https://lnkd.in/egvwh6Py

Treaty of Lausanne (1923): The Treaty of Lausanne replaced the Treaty of Sèvres in 1923 and recognized Turkey as an independent state without granting any rights or recognition to Kurds. This treaty effectively ignored Kurdish aspirations for autonomy or independence and partitioned Kurdish territories among Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Partitioning of Kurdistan: As a result of these treaties and subsequent geopolitical decisions, Kurds became a stateless nation divided across multiple countries—Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria—without any political representation or recognition.

Over the past 30 years, the regions neighboring #Turkey????have experienced a series of conflicts that have shaped the #geopolitical #landscape. One of the most significant has been the Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011. The conflict has drawn in multiple regional and global powers, creating a #humanitarian #crisis and displacing millions of people, many of whom sought refuge in Turkey. Additionally, the war has involved #Kurdish militias, some of which Turkey views as extensions of the #PKK, complicating Turkey's security and regional influence. #Iraq has also been a zone of instability, particularly following the 2003 U.S. invasion and the rise of ISIS in 2014. The conflict with #ISIS spilled over into Turkey, which faced a series of attacks and became involved militarily in northern Iraq and #Syria. Turkey's military operations in northern Iraq have been largely aimed at eliminating PKK bases, continuing a conflict that has lasted for decades. The #Nagorno-#Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which escalated into full-scale war in 2020, also had indirect consequences for Turkey. Turkey provided military and political support to Azerbaijan, which shifted the balance of power in the region and further complicated relations with #Armenia and #Russia. Turkey’s relations with Greece have been strained by disputes in the Aegean Sea and over Cyprus, which has been divided since 1974. Tensions escalated periodically over territorial waters and energy exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly in the last decade. In the #Balkans, the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s brought instability to Turkey's immediate western region. Turkey, as a key player in NATO, was involved in diplomatic and humanitarian efforts, while also seeking to protect Muslim populations, particularly in #Bosnia and Kosovo. Throughout these conflicts, Turkey has balanced its role as a NATO member, regional power, and mediator, often using military force and diplomacy to protect its national security and interests.

The Kurds (and their plight) are not popular on college campuses. The people who have stolen the land of the Kurds are all friends of the Palestinian cause. The Kurds, like the entire middle east were oppressed by the Ottoman Empire for centuries. At the end of World War I, they were promised a country, but self-appointed Turkish, Arab, and Persian leaders found the idea of Kurdish autonomy offensive. Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey have been at almost constant war with their Kurds. The Kurds have constantly been dispossessed, and their resources have been stolen. On occasion, the US, or some other regime will assist them for a while. But they are not an emerging market, they are prevented from developing industries, and their resources have been stolen. The Russians (as the Soviets before them) and the Chinese have no use for the Kurds. The UN doesn't seem to care what happens to the Kurds. Why is this? Why don't the Kurds get a tenth of the attention that the 'Palestinians' get? https://lnkd.in/gX_B3dJN

I remember in Afghanistan as a combat advisor to the ANP, when we went on operations and innocent civilians were injured or killedwe knew that were consequences. Those consequences were that 30% of the relatives already sympathized with Taliban, and 10% of the casualty’s family/clan would take up arms against the coalition in retribution for what we had done. This war will be a tactical success for Israel but will be a strategic defeat, unless these conditions are met: Condition 1: Reduce or eliminate the casualty rate of civilians. This cannot be another “Gaza” style operation, where almost no target was off limits Condition 2: If mistakes are made, own them and take actions to correct the mistake, do this publicly Condition 3: Have a robust and persistent message of hope for the civilians Condition 4: Once an area is cleared, economic opportunities must be available for the civilian population along with safety from Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. Condition 5: Continue economic development of areas cleared, so the population has a choice, economic opportunities in safety or the rule if Hezbollah. Which would mean continuing conflicts with Israel. #MiddleEast #IDF #PeacethroughPower #ThinkTank #DroneWars #HireaVet #HireMe #StrategicThinking

"Do you want to mount a full-scale invasion of Rafah to try to finish off Hamas — if that is even possible — without offering any Israeli exit strategy from Gaza or any political horizon for a two-state solution with non-Hamas-led Palestinians? If you go this route, it will only compound Israel’s global isolation and force a real breach with the Biden administration. Or do you want normalization with Saudi Arabia, an Arab peacekeeping force for Gaza and a U.S.-led security alliance against Iran? This would come with a different price: a commitment from your government to work toward a Palestinian state with a reformed Palestinian Authority — but with the benefit of embedding Israel in the widest U.S.-Arab-Israeli defense coalition the Jewish state has ever enjoyed and the biggest bridge to the rest of the Muslim world Israel has ever been offered, while creating at least some hope that the conflict with the Palestinians will not be a “forever war.’’ This is one of the most fateful choices Israel has ever had to make. And what I find both disturbing and depressing is that there is no major Israeli leader today in the ruling coalition, the opposition or the military who is consistently helping Israelis understand that choice — a global pariah or a Middle East partner — or explaining why it should choose the second." Israel Has a Choice to Make: Rafah or Riyadh https://lnkd.in/gBMDvYiT (Subscription may be required) #gaza #Israel #us #saudiarabia #middleeast

My latest piece covers the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. and the regional and global implications. Link in the comments! In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed as rebel forces, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Damascus in a swift campaign. This ended over 50 years of Assad family rule in Syria, as Assad fled to Moscow. The rebellion gained momentum after key regime backers, Russia and Iran, failed to provide sufficient support, allowing rebel factions to secure major cities with minimal resistance. The regime's fall has significant regional implications: Russia loses a critical foothold in the Mediterranean, while Iran's regional proxy network faces a considerable blow. Domestically, Syria is now divided between Kurdish-controlled areas in the northeast and rebel coalitions in the rest of the country. HTS has rebranded as a moderate force with promises of diplomacy and inclusivity, but questions persist about its ability to govern a fractured nation. Despite uncertainties, there is cautious optimism that Syria might see progress toward peace after more than a decade of war and devastation. #Syria, #MiddleEast, #History, #ForeignPolicy, #Geopolitics, #SyrianCivilWar, #AssadRegimeCollapse, #SyriaNews, #SyrianRebels, #HTSLeadership, #DamascusCaptured, #AssadExile, #RussiaMiddleEast, #IranianInfluence, #SyriaPeace, #PostWarSyria, #SyrianDemocracy, #KurdsInSyria, #GlobalPolitics, #RebelVictory.