Rabo AgriFinance的动态

China’s anti-subsidy probe of dairy imports from the European Union comes at a time when the local industry is on its knees. Limiting shipments from the EU could relieve some pressure on farmers, but the quantities targeted are small and domestic conditions have been worsening for quite a while. The market is grappling with excess production capacity built up over years, and a slump in demand due to the slowing economy that’s having an outsized impact on pricier foods. Read more: https://lnkd.in/g8PQG3CZ

https://lnkd.in/gyqeiNQN Interesting read on Hoard's Dairyman about the significant shifts in China's dairy demand.

HighGround Dairy's Chart of the Week: China's Raw Milk Prices ?? According to data released by China's Ministry of Agriculture, raw milk prices continue to tank in the country. As of the latest figures for the week ending March 17, prices hit a low of 3.55 RMB/kg, marking the lowest level since June 2019 and even dipping below the lows seen at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline is attributed to robust milk production, which has outpaced demand, necessitating a reduction in herd sizes. Moreover, the import volumes for January and February, released yesterday, further contribute to the narrative of weak demand as volumes were down across key commodities such as whey and skim milk powder. ?? Stay up-to-date on all things dairy markets by signing up for a 30-day Free Trial! https://hubs.ly/Q02qrKNP0 #HGChartOfTheWeek #HighGroundDairy #Dairy #DairyProducts #DairyMilk #DairyIndustry #MarketInsights #China #ChinaDemand #RawMilk #MilkProduction #Imports #TradeData

EXCERPTS: China’s anti-subsidy probe of dairy imports from the European Union comes at a time when the local industry is on its knees. Limiting shipments from the EU could relieve some pressure on farmers, but the quantities targeted are small and domestic conditions have been worsening for quite a while. The market is grappling with excess production capacity built up over years, and a slump in demand due to the slowing economy that’s having an outsized impact on pricier foods. Dairy isn’t central to the typical Chinese diet. Milk only became a kitchen staple this century and many still consider cheese a Western luxury. Developing the taste for dairy in a country of more than a billion people represents a rare opportunity for growth that firms, both foreign and domestic, have been keen to seize. But that’s come to a juddering halt. Milk prices have dropped continuously for more than two years, according to the farm ministry. Some 80% of farmers are now loss-making, by one estimate, and producers are culling more cows than usual. The industry is also looking at new avenues of demand, like churning more milk into cheese, as well as scouring export markets for buyers to soak up the domestic glut. COMMENTS: According to WorldAtlas (https://lnkd.in/gmPQ3Gcz), two of the largest farms in the world are dairy farms in China with Mudanjiang City Mega Farm in Heilongjiang having 22.5 million acres or the size of Portugal. Re: No.2 Modern Dairy in Anhui (https://lnkd.in/gC8-cw6y).

<<China Dairy Firms Won't See Demand Surge, But Sales on the Mend>> Chinese dairy demand might not significantly rebound, but sales may recover by a mid-to-high single digit for the full year on easing oversupply. Upstream firms like Youran Dairy and Modern Dairy could see robust revenue growth due to steady volume, while infant milk formula makers such as Ausnutria and China Feihe may revert to profit growth.? Please click on the following link to access the full note by Ada Li & Joyce Ho, Bloomberg Intelligence: https://lnkd.in/gJdwsygc

While going through this recent Voice of America (VOA) article on food security challenge facing China despite 20 year of consecutive bumper production, reminds me of Lester Brown's prediction in 1994 that China Could Starve the World (https://lnkd.in/g5usUTaY). Many of his predictions have come true. According to Dr. Brown, Chinese grain deficit would rise to 360 million tons by 2030. He has cited rising meat consumption and loss of farmland to non-farm activities as key reasons for such deficit. In 2023, Chinese grain imports were close to 160 million tons. China's food self-sufficiency has dropped from 93.6% in 2000 to 65.8% now. According to this VOA article, China is now looking to expand its food import sources to lower geopolitical risks. At present, China is heavily dependent on United States, Canada and Australia for more than half of its imports. It will be fascinating to see how China navigates this new strategy and what it means for global food trade. #foodsecurity #china TRT The Rice Trader https://lnkd.in/geW-WRti

Meat consumption evolution in China per person per year - **2013**: circa 5,8 kg - **2014**: circa 6,0 kg - **2015**: circa 6,1 kg - **2016**: circa 6,3 kg - **2017**: circa 6,5 kg - **2018**: circa 6,7 kg - **2019**: circa 6,9 kg - **2020**: circa 7,1 kg - **2021**: circa 7,5 kg - **2022**: circa 7,3 kg (light correction due to economical and sanitation factors)sanitari) Whereas 1 kg difference = 1’300’000 tons = aprox 4 million cows. As a reference it takes 2 Brasils*) to complete 1 more Kg of meat for each Chinese. *) Brasil is probably the world’s main exporter of meat

I'm looking forward to joining the Congressional Ag Trade Caucus on Monday for a discussion about the barriers and opportunities for U.S. blueberry exports! Compared to the other commodities represented on the panel, the U.S. blueberry industry is a relative newcomer to the export business. As a perishable specialty crop, we also face unique challenges related to export protocol, quality control, phytosanitary measures, shipping costs, and more. Some of the shared challenges include high tariffs relative to our competition and international relations that change global trade dynamics. There is a huge runway of opportunity to grow global demand for blueberries and make blueberries the world's greatest fruit! ?? There is certainly a role for Congress in ensuring tariff and non-tariff barriers don't impede that opportunity for growth. More importantly, Congress can absolutely proactively invest in policies and programs that support increased Ag exports. MAP and TASC are excellent market development programs, but we also need investments in research on genetics, pre or post-harvest pest management, packaging, food safety, cold chain infrastructure, and MRLs. I sound like a broken record, but growing Ag exports starts with passing a Farm Bill.

New Zealand stands as China’s leading dairy source, bolstered by advancements stemming from the 2008 free trade agreement. As of January 1, 2024, safeguard duties on milk powder have been lifted, signifying full liberalization in the dairy sector. Watch Tractus China Senior Research Analyst Miranda D. delve into the future of domestic manufacturers post-liberalization in an interview with Qiuyi Tan from Channel News Asia. Facing the dynamic?Chinese dairy market, international dairy companies interested in?entering?the?market need to?first?understand?the changing?consumption trends and?the?diversified?market?demand. Tractus has?over 25 years of experience?advising our public and private sector clients on their market expansion strategies and implementation plans. Contact us?now?to learn more about how we can help your business achieve success in China. #Tractus #China #NewZealand #Dairy #Milk #MilkPowder #FTA #Liberalization #SupplyChain #Globalization #MarketExpansion #MarketEntry

Montenegro’s food import conundrum: A call for stronger domestic production #Agriculture #Economy #FoodImports #Government #Montenegro #Pkcg https://lnkd.in/dsGd8s_4