QI Research的动态

Always love how straightforward and concise DDB's analysis is.

Only put off until tomorrow what you are willing to die having left undone. Traders Digesting US NFP Data as Stock Futures Remain Flat Stock futures are showing little movement following the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. The NFP report is highly influential for traders and investors, as it provides valuable insights into the state of the US labor market, which in turn shapes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The latest data has exposed the true colors of the US labor economy, leaving traders seeking clarity amidst the aftermath. It typically takes some time for the dust to settle before a clear market direction emerges. Given the significance of the data, traders will carefully analyze and digest all the important messages it conveys. Don't miss out on capitalizing on your Health Savings Account (HSA) opportunities! Take action today and invest wisely for your healthcare, family, and overall wellness. #hsa #investing #healthcare #health #family #wellness ???????

A reassuring Zervos after US payrolls... The release of last Friday's labour market report, which came out well above expectations, pushed US treasury yields up, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4% this morning. David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, once again appears reassuring about the Fed's job, the economy and markets, and the role of treasuries in the risk-parity trade. ?? The full interview: https://lnkd.in/dktks4fz Video Source: CNBC Interview with David Zervos - Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies Credits: Vittorio Treichler - Partner and Market Strategist at NOVUM CAPITAL PARTNERS SA #USPayrolls #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #EconomicOutlook #Jefferies #FinancialMarkets #USEconomy #InterestRates

#novumcapitalpartners A reassuring Zervos after US payrolls... The release of last Friday's labour market report, which came out well above expectations, pushed US treasury yields up, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4% this morning. David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, once again appears reassuring about the Fed's job, the economy and markets, and the role of treasuries in the risk-parity trade. ?? The full interview: https://lnkd.in/d8Rcxafy Video Source: CNBC Interview with David Zervos - Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies Credits: Vittorio Treichler - Partner and Market Strategist at NOVUM CAPITAL PARTNERS SA #USPayrolls #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #EconomicOutlook #Jefferies #FinancialMarkets #USEconomy #InterestRates

Clarifying a previous comment (that I deleted) because I was unclear/incomplete in how I wrote it. Powell says, "the Fed isn't raising (though they should)." Fed then says the reason is that they're rolling off maturities "more slowly (tightening)" In other words, not tightening/tightening...typical Fed-speak which means nothing. But that's NOT what a UST at 4.57 says when inflation is 3.4 and productivity gains are 3.3...UST would be fairly priced at 6.7 with those numbers (Jamie Dimon's 8% comment hints at that). In other words, something's "out of whack." And elections are just 6 months away. Do you think Powell wants to be responsible for the outcome? I don't.

What will the Fed do in March? The Fed has two levers to play with - rates and QT. If they stand pat on both, markets could turn ugly. If they act on one (cut rates or taper QT) and leave the other intact, we could see a minor pullback followed by rallies. If they act on both, markets will keep going parabolic. My sense is that they will choose the middle ground and act on one front - maybe keep rates where they are (whilst keep projecting cuts down the track) and announce an imminent end to QT. Why? we are 7 months from an election and all of the US establishment prefers the incumbent to the unpredictable challenger. For this reason: 1. They will not risk a market carnage; 2. They will not accentuate the systemic risks from continued tight policy (commercial bank stress due to mtm & CRE); 3. Unemployment isn't yet a big factor but they cannot risk tight policy sparking more layoffs through the year; 4. Also, the first rate cuts will be need to be properly timed around August- September to get people primed for the vote so they won't give away that bone too early. For this bull market, any good news will be enough to keep it firing on. ?? Happy Investing. Not advice. DYOR.

Anticipation is growing for the Fed’s next two-day policy meeting, which ends on September 18, 2024. If the Fed decides to cut short-term interest rates, it would be the first adjustment to be lower in more than 4 years.

"The rate cut is the first in four years, and further adjustments to the Fed’s monetary policy may now focus on the employment sector, which has slowed. The Fed meets two more times this year, and the likelihood of another rate cut of this size is minimal." Check out our Weekly Update, now live on our blog: https://lnkd.in/d9Urp3Q8 #weeklyupdate #stockmarket #investing #thetrustcompanyofkansas

"The rate cut is the first in four years, and further adjustments to the Fed’s monetary policy may now focus on the employment sector, which has slowed. The Fed meets two more times this year, and the likelihood of another rate cut of this size is minimal." Check out our Weekly Update, now live on our blog: https://lnkd.in/d9Urp3Q8 #weeklyupdate #stockmarket #investing #tckwealthmanagement

Back to “when Not If” In the great Rate Debate the pendulum has swung back to “when not if” we will be celebrating cuts on the strength, or lack thereof, in US unemployment claims yesterday.??The “when” is going to need a little more time to marinate as we get a preliminary look at Consumer Sentiment today followed by the two-headed PPI/CPI monster next week.??Didn’t we just watch this movie last week???According to Bloomberg “A raft of Federal Reserve speakers are slated for Friday.”??Hopefully, the message is consistent, if it’s not, that raft will quickly become a rash. On the stock market front futures are up and the much longed for and necessary broadening out of sectors appears to be coming together.??In order for the market to continue its 8 day rally and sustain itself going forward, the game plan will have to pivot away from the star system (Magnificent 7) to a next man up strategy. Down the Shore we are wondering “when” we are going to get an 8-day sunny spell.??Ok, we’ll settle for three as long as two of them are over the weekend.??Make it a great day.