Peloton Equity的动态

Simeon Siegel, CFA speaks to CNBC about PTON’s critical decision juncture, suggesting the dangers of continuing to chase their own growth-focused status quo versus an opportunity to reorient and re-elevate their brand, bear-hugging their brand loyalists and protecting their existing subscribers. "The problem is, they lose money. How do you lose money if you're generating a billion one of recurring gross profit dollars? Well, you take all of that gross profit and you spend it to try and chase new growth. Peloton could generate around $500 million in EBITDA if it cuts research and development, marketing and other corporate expenses and it would still be in the upper echelon of most brands’ spending. Their debt is scary on a company that's burning cash, their debt's not scary at all on a company that can make half a billion dollars of EBITDA. They have a business that's generating a tremendous amount of cash. They need to stop spending it." https://spr.ly/6043YwMNh

This series is a fascinating deep dive on company financial statements ..

There are lots of hot takes around Adjusted EBITDA on social media. How it’s useless. How you shouldn’t adjust EBITDA. Or Charlie Munger describing it as ’bull sh*t earnings’. This all misses the point completely. Munger is right, it’s bullsh*t as an earnings measure. But no-one with an ounce of financial literacy uses it as an earnings measure. It’s not ‘Adjusted EBITDA’ that’s the problem, it’s the adjustments themselves. And those adjustments need to be evaluated one by one. And that's exactly what we are going to do with Peloton's Adjusted EBITDA after I found this DOOZY of a bridge in their latest 10-K. We are going to dive deep into every line item of Peloton's Adjusted EBITDA and how to treat it in part 3 of our 4-part deep dive on financial statements. It will all be published in my newsletter CFO Secrets at 8:45am ET tomorrow. Sign up here now, and you'll get it delivered straight to your inbox ---> https://www.cfosecrets.io/

Corporate Tracker report for @Peloton : Peloton's Q1 2025 earnings reveal a company at a crossroads, balancing strengths and challenges. With $13 million in GAAP operating income and $116 million in adjusted EBITDA, Peloton demonstrates financial resilience. The company's subscription model remains robust, generating $426 million in revenue. However, recent subscriber declines and a high dependency on subscription services present concerns. Peloton's operational efficiency shines through reduced expenses and achieved cost savings, yet faces threats from intense competition and potential market saturation. Opportunities lie in global health trends, international expansion, and technological advancements, but economic uncertainties and supply chain disruptions loom. As Peloton navigates this complex landscape, its ability to innovate, diversify, and maintain its subscriber base will be crucial for future growth.

Good Behavior Beats Sophistication in Investing We often see educated, successful individuals falling prey to financial scams or losing money on risky investments. But what about those who've already achieved enormous financial success? Surprisingly, they're not immune to poor financial decisions. Two recent examples: 1. Jon Foley, former Peloton CEO - At its peak: Peloton valued at $50B, Foley a paper billionaire - His prediction: Peloton would become a trillion-dollar company - Reality: Shares tanked, forcing him to sell prized possessions - Now: Starting over with a new venture 2. Frederick Forsyth, bestselling author - Known for: "The Day of the Jackal," "Odessa Files" - Outcome: Lost all his money to a fraudulent financial advisor - The common thread? The frailty of human behavior. As Morgan Housel wisely puts it: "Good behavior beats sophistication." Remember: Success doesn't guarantee future wise decisions Stay grounded, even when riding high Always do your due diligence, regardless of your financial status What's your take on this? Have you seen similar examples in your experience? #FinancialWisdom #InvestingLessons #BehavioralFinance

Simeon Siegel, CFA spoke to Business Insider about his long-standing belief that Peloton could benefit from bear-hugging their brand loyalists and focusing profits over growth, discussing his path to improvement outlined in his May research report, “Succeed by Staying Stationary: How We’d Drive $460-675mm EBITDA & Share Upside.” "It was a bubble of euphoria in pandemic-induced perception mania. Peloton's peak market cap was not steeped in reality; it was steeped in hope. Peloton is an objectively, wildly successful entrepreneurial startup story. The problem was it didn't go from zero to today. It went from zero to Mount Everest to today. Just as people got overly exuberant when Peloton was going up, they got wildly negative when Peloton went down. Unlike most turnarounds, the healthy cash flow is already there, we simply suggest Peloton stop spending it." Read the full article here: https://spr.ly/6044SjCI8

After 4 and half years, my time at Peloton has finally come to an end. I put in my application on April 1, 2020 - 1 month post IPO and in the heart of COVID. To be blunt, the Peloton I joined then is most definitely not the same company I leave now. I believe it’s better and let me tell you why. I’m a firm believer in 2 things in business: one is the power of stories and the other is the power of people. When I left the Danaher Ecosystem to join Peloton, my plan was to take the Danaher Lean story and apply it to Big Tech. Lean Operations, rigorously applied, adds value everywhere I told myself. Stories are indeed powerful but candidly this story wasn’t super accurate, helpful or remotely close to possible at the time. Even after 10 years in operations, you can sometimes forget there are a million ways to skin a cat. In addition, nowhere in the lean playbook does it tell you how to get a 500 LB treadmill or 150 LB bike across from Asia and up a small east village staircase in the height of social distancing policies in a global pandemic. The world was watching, and they wanted their equipment BAD. To undersell the urgency around this under appreciated and unprecedented point would be an injustice to anyone who has been a Peloton employee but the nuances of which will most likely be left out of the many Harvard case studies in years to come. In the midst of this unique situation, I was able to rely on some great leaders and colleagues around me. I learned that the power of people is ultimately what drives the power of stories. While the narrative around Peloton since 2020 has often changed and been the subject of frequent public conversation, I can assure you the one story that has been consistent is that the people in the building at Peloton are some of the best and brightest. They are creatives, coaches, innovators, free thinkers, grinders, and have been, frankly, survivors. They continue to push to make Peloton an incredible place to work and to provide for the community it serves. Peloton’s story now is that of the fighting spirit, and that hard work, rigorously applied, will in the end bring results. I will always be a fan of Peloton’s people & product and it’s power to bring confidence through community. To my Peloton teammates, THANK YOU. To everyone else, I look forward to sharing some exciting news with you all very soon. Together We Go Far.

This is such an important point by James. One that has sparked a memory of something similar in my head about effectiveness awards papers: Understanding if it was your impact that caused an effect, or something else that has caused that effect, is something I used to obsess about as a planner. And that 'something else' can be many things... I used to judge the Singapore and APAC Effies every year when I lived over there. Every year the same agency entered a bunch of papers, for the same brand, and the paper was the same: "[Brand] had a limited edition [product] and our advertising made them smash their KPIs!" Every year (if my memory serves me correct) they won nothing. Because every year they could not convince the judges it was their work that caused the effect, or whether the effect was caused by something much simpler: the limited edition product was really good, and it's a brand and category that Singaporeans love and swarm around. The question we asked ourselves in the judging room every year was "OK, if this advertising didn't exist, would the [product] have sold itself, because it was really good and people are actively engaged with the brand anyway?" You need to leave judges in no doubt it was your work that created the effect. As a planner, you need to spend at least the same amount of time discounting other factors as you do being "self congratulatory" (to use James's words below).

Is Peloton actually making money on Bikes and Treads? How profitable is that $44/month subscription? Can they ever get back to growth with these unit economics? In this week’s CFO Secrets newsletter, we ripped apart Peloton’s P&L as part of our month-long series on financial statements. You can read the full deep dive here in case you missed it. Click here to read it: https://lnkd.in/eQKpyu9j