Tipping points for better and worse

Dear Planetary Steward, Dear friend of the Global Commons Alliance,

Last week leaders from countries that are home to the world's three major tropical forest basins –?Amazon, Congo and South-East Asia –?agreed to deepen their collaboration to conserve biodiversity and tackle deforestation, drainage and land degradation, alongside enhancing local economies during a first of its kind Three Basins Summit.

This is a pivotal agreement towards valuing and safeguarding the global commons. The ecosystems in these basins account for two thirds of the planet’s biodiversity, are precious water resources, and provide livelihoods, cultural identity and crucial resources for Indigenous and local communities. They are also massive carbon sinks that the entire world depends on. This inclusive coalition is at the frontline of efforts to create a Safe and Just planet by pursuing development trajectories that are interdependent with ecosystem conservation and restoration.?

While the talks fell short of a ‘tri-basin alliance’ that many had hoped for, they’ve helped set the tone for how the forest nations will show up to COP28, and the need to consider climate, nature and social equity as one package.?

Many in the community will be looking to see what types of announcements on carbon and forest credits will be made at COP28 in a deeply uncertain environment following?the collapse of South Pole’s Kariba mega-project in Zimbabwe .?

But collapse isn’t just for carbon markets. A new study published in Nature shows the West Antarctic ice sheet –?one of the several tipping elements discussed by Earth Commissioners Johan Rockstr?m and Joyeeta Gupta in Davos at the beginning of the year - faces an inevitable increase in ice shelf melt rates, making ice sheet collapse more likely. The impacts for coastal communities everywhere will be significant. Last week the Financial Times reported on the first climate refugees from the Americas who are already preparing to leave their island homes, which will soon be lost to the sea.?

However, tipping points can be positive too, as Systemiq noted in?its?Breakthrough Effect report earlier this year. A new report that will contribute to Systems Change Lab, led by Earth Commissioner Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, will be released on 6 December assessing negative earth system tipping points, their impacts and governance –?and the positive social tipping points we can help unleash that could change the current trajectory of decline and collapse, pointing us instead towards regeneration.?

Set against the enormous challenges of today, working toward?positive tipping points?for systemic change in deep collaboration brings me a great deal of energy.?I was very encouraged by the discussions on inter- and trans-disciplinary research during the Earth Systems Governance conference in the Netherlands recently, where the Earth Commission led a session in which the potential for a cascade effect on social tipping points across sectors was highlighted. I’m really looking forward to sharing more on that with you soon in Expo City, Dubai.

With all my best wishes, Jane

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