Novum Home Loans的动态

Transcript

People issue debt across various terms or it could be a one year or two year or five year, A10 year, a 30 year mortgages or 30 years. But on average they only last for about 8 1/2 to 9 years. That's why they always pegged to the 10 year treasury because it's a good indicator to use to understand generally where rates are going. But when the Fed cuts rates, that doesn't affect the 10 year that affects the Fed funds rate, right? And that's an overnight rate. That's literally a rate that's less than 24 hours. So the Fed really controls like this short rate, but. Long rates are controlled, not really controlled. They're influenced by the economy. So I've always said you need to watch two things to understand where the economy is going and thus where mortgage rates are going. Look at jobs and inflation. Jobs is an indication that hey, is the economy doing good or bad inflation or the cost of things going up or down. You look at those two things, understand where rates are going, not with the Federal Reserve is doing with the Fed funds rate. So the Fed cuts rate and mortgage rates go up. If you look at the data that came out after that, we had a really hot. Jobs report and then stickier inflation than we expected. Both of those came in. I would say we use a term in the market bearish, right? Those reports were like bearish for long term rates. So why? Because it showed the economy was still growing. We don't necessarily need lower rates for the economy to continue on as it is and inflation starts to hit that stubborn level where it's not coming down as fast as it was say the earlier part of this year in the last couple of months. So you take those two things and that tells you that mortgage rates probably got ahead of itself. Ended up that meeting with the expectation that the feds cutting because they're potentially seeing the economy but in slowing down during lease inflation coming down.